Will we finally see Parity with the Aussie dollar in 2015 ?

[Hoop]

Oil and therefore gas ... LNG are going to be a big downer on the Aussie economy , so a lot to do with the x IMO ....

Oil and gas combined make up half the GDP of Aus as Iron Ore does (11% vs 22%) So not negligible, but also not that big.

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Econo...rt_Treemap.png

I added some charts to BFG referred site Treemap..
You see from the map as BFG observed the big 3 coal iron oil make up half of the Aussis exports...
Currency usually correlates with the terms of trade...so it comes as no surprise that the Aussi $$ is continuing to weaken.
You notice that Aussi exports enjoyed that 2007/2008 bubble....and the 2011 rebound..
As with all bubbles they don't last ..so one makes Hay while the sunshines...Did Australia Inc may Hay??? With hindsight, and with recent poor economical performance it seems the answer is, "no they didn't".

Bubbles are rare events....nice memories but investors must assume that these events are not normal...so one should assume an immediate return to that 2007situation is unlikely....

Iron doesn't seem to be that low chartwise..It could be still be a little higher than its "normal" (long term median)...so one could argue it may not be undervalued ..hence the wish to return to much higher values may be difficult to achieve in the near future.

Gold ditto

Coal bubble was tremendous and the bubble after shock was just as volatile...Again (similar to Iron) looking at the price history on the charts one could argue that the current prices could around its normal (natural) levels or slightly lower.

Oil looks lower than "normal"
So.... if these commodity prices are back near their "normal" levels...One has to ask the question "What on earth (pun) has happened to the Structural System of the Australian Economy during these last 20 years?"

And... the future?....Aussi may need another bubble to perform..Reliance on "bubble hope" not a good way for an economy to function...structural reforms needed?