KMD - Kathmandu

[couta1]

Anyone have any clues why SP for this is drilling the depths? A huge drop and div yield is piquing my interest.

Market insanity coupled with panic.

[sb9]

I'm pretty sure have seen a post by Roger this morning on this thread...which was quite elaborative, did you delete it Roger?? Certainly looks like a good entry point for me, however would like to dig bit deeper before taking a position.

[Antipodean]

I'm pretty sure have seen a post by Roger this morning on this thread...which was quite elaborative, did you delete it Roger?? Certainly looks like a good entry point for me, however would like to dig bit deeper before taking a position.

It's in the WHS thread.

http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthr...l=1#post525944

[Beagle]

Yep I did. The reason is I'm perplexed and of two minds with this stock. Analysts like it. As posted in WHS thread and forward revised EPS is just over 19 cps for 2015 so on the face of it there's value to be had with a PE of less than 10. Its not a tired brand nor is it close to market saturation like WHS is but to be honest I can't get my head around whether this is a "value trap" or not. My gut says it probably is at present.

Consumer sentiment is very, very weak in their key market in Australia and I think this will get worse as ongoing mass retrenchments occur in the mining, oil and gas sectors.
In N.Z. people here are really worried with apparel brands, (PPL) and big names like Cavalier appear to mean nix these days.

On the other hand KMD is a solid brand IMO, we have a growing baby boomer generation looking to get into the great outdoors / adventure market, (how much of this is my own perception because I'm on a health kick at present I cannot decide), and I expect government funding around a push for healthy lifestyles as govt's face an epidemic of obesity related illnesses so such healthy lifestyle promotion should play into KMD's adventure / outdoor product offerings very well over time. The reason I deleted it is I don't feel I can add much to the debate other than to raise more questions...but I guess its good to discuss these things.

My gut feel says its too risky to try and catch a falling knife. With profit uncertainty hanging over the company and no further planned company updates forthcoming till February the risk appears to remain to the downside notwithstanding its more than halved in value from $3.90 in May 2014. I think it will be a buy at some stage but could test early 2012 lows at around $1.50 in the meantime. On a risk reward basis I don't see any harm in waiting till its broken back through on the upside of the 100 day MA, whenever that might be... To much potential volatility to buy this for dividend yield in my 2 cents worth of opinion. Restructuring in due course could really see this take off from a new SP base wherever that base is ?????

You'd think the low petrol prices would be playing into the hands of retailers like WHS and KMD but that doesn't appear to be the case...which begs the question of where they're spending the extra money...on bills perhaps ? As posted earlier in the thread I've never really been a brand apparel kind of guy but I guess a bit of exposure to a good brand when it hits the bottom could be a good diversification strategy.

I've put KMD on my watchlist and watching closely. I'm very interested in what people think of the quality of their products and company prospects in the medium term ?

[sb9]

Yep I did. The reason is I'm perplexed and of two minds with this stock. Analysts like it. As posted in WHS thread and forward revised EPS is just over 19 cps for 2015 so on the face of it there's value to be had with a PE of less than 10. Its not a tired brand nor is it close to market saturation like WHS is but to be honest I can't get my head around whether this is a "value trap" or not. My gut says it probably is at present.

Consumer sentiment is very, very weak in their key market in Australia and I think this will get worse as ongoing mass retrenchments occur in the mining, oil and gas sectors.
In N.Z. people here are really worried with apparel brands, (PPL) and big names like Cavalier appear to mean nix these days.

On the other hand KMD is a solid brand IMO, we have a growing baby boomer generation looking to get into the great outdoors / adventure market, (how much of this is my own perception because I'm on a health kick at present I cannot decide), and I expect government funding around a push for healthy lifestyles as govt's face an epidemic of obesity related illnesses so such healthy lifestyle promotion should play into KMD's adventure / outdoor product offerings very well over time. The reason I deleted it is I don't feel I can add much to the debate other than to raise more questions...but I guess its good to discuss these things.

My gut feel says its too risky to try and catch a falling knife. With profit uncertainty hanging over the company and no further planned company updates forthcoming till February the risk appears to remain to the downside notwithstanding its more than halved in value from $3.90 in May 2014. I think it will be a buy at some stage but could test early 2012 lows at around $1.50 in the meantime. On a risk reward basis I don't see any harm in waiting till its broken back through on the upside of the 100 day MA, whenever that might be... To much potential volatility to buy this for dividend yield in my 2 cents worth of opinion. Restructuring in due course could really see this take off from a new SP base wherever that base is ?????

Thanks Roger, tht was going mad for a minute when I couldn't find your post from this morning.

[percy]

Huge changes going on in retail.
Just as the motor car replaced the horse,the internet is changing the distribution channels.
People can now buy their apparel on line.Some people will not go near shops.
The model of KMD's, based on three "sales" per year, may not stand up to people comparing their product with on line retailers ,whose everyday prices are lower,and quality most probably a lot better.
No one is fooled by save $200 on a puffer jacket,now $299,when they can buy the same or better at $99 elsewhere.

[noodles]

Yep I did. The reason is I'm perplexed and of two minds with this stock. Analysts like it. As posted in WHS thread and forward revised EPS is just over 19 cps for 2015 so on the face of it there's value to be had with a PE of less than 10. Its not a tired brand nor is it close to market saturation like WHS is but to be honest I can't get my head around whether this is a "value trap" or not. My gut says it probably is at present.

Consumer sentiment is very, very weak in their key market in Australia and I think this will get worse as ongoing mass retrenchments occur in the mining, oil and gas sectors.
In N.Z. people here are really worried with apparel brands, (PPL) and big names like Cavalier appear to mean nix these days.

On the other hand KMD is a solid brand IMO, we have a growing baby boomer generation looking to get into the great outdoors / adventure market, (how much of this is my own perception because I'm on a health kick at present I cannot decide), and I expect government funding around a push for healthy lifestyles as govt's face an epidemic of obesity related illnesses so such healthy lifestyle promotion should play into KMD's adventure / outdoor product offerings very well over time. The reason I deleted it is I don't feel I can add much to the debate other than to raise more questions...but I guess its good to discuss these things.

My gut feel says its too risky to try and catch a falling knife. With profit uncertainty hanging over the company and no further planned company updates forthcoming till February the risk appears to remain to the downside notwithstanding its more than halved in value from $3.90 in May 2014. I think it will be a buy at some stage but could test early 2012 lows at around $1.50 in the meantime. On a risk reward basis I don't see any harm in waiting till its broken back through on the upside of the 100 day MA, whenever that might be... To much potential volatility to buy this for dividend yield in my 2 cents worth of opinion. Restructuring in due course could really see this take off from a new SP base wherever that base is ?????

You'd think the low petrol prices would be playing into the hands of retailers like WHS and KMD but that doesn't appear to be the case...which begs the question of where they're spending the extra money...on bills perhaps ? As posted earlier in the thread I've never really been a brand apparel kind of guy but I guess a bit of exposure to a good brand when it hits the bottom could be a good diversification strategy.

I've put KMD on my watchlist and watching closely. I'm very interested in what people think of the quality of their products and company prospects in the medium term ?

Roger,

I would be wary using the average analyst forecast. There is a big range from .15 to .225. Some of the higher forecasts may not have been revised down yet. Perhaps better to look at the bottom for a more conservative view.
http://www.4-traders.com/KATHMANDU-H...917/revisions/

Another thing to remember is that downgrades usually come in threes. Two more to go.

Cheers,
noodles

[Beagle]

Huge changes going on in retail.
Just as the motor car replaced the horse,the internet is changing the distribution channels.
People can now buy their apparel on line.Some people will not go near shops.
The model of KMD's, based on three "sales" per year, may not stand up to people comparing their product with on line retailers ,whose everyday prices are lower,and quality most probably better.

I tend to agree mate. This health kick I'm on is basically getting out there and doing power walking 45-60 minutes quick walking 5-6 days a week and avoiding sugar and all forms of known extremely fatty food like Cheesecake and Ice-cream chocolate e.t.c., (lost 5 kg's since Christmas and very good for dealing with the stress I'm dealing with in regard to my daughter). Now I've got to thinking quite a number of times that one of those fancy hydration backpacks might be a good idea as this fast walking is thirsty work.
So purely for the sake of a random exercise I just popped onto the FCO (Fishing camping and outdoors website), my local store is 100 metres away from my nearest KMD store and I see they have 2 litre hydration packs on sale for $27
http://www.fco.co.nz/online-store/ca....aspx?id=20406. For the sake of comparison I then jumped on the KMD site and there's are $80 on special, probably better but unlikely I'd be able to tell the difference. While i was on the KMD website I had a quick look around at some of their other pricing which also worried me. As a purely random sample this sort of price disparity would worry me if I were a KMD shareholder. Every Tom, Dick, Harry and Roger would go to the FCO store wouldn't they or buy one on trade me for even less ?

[winner69]

I tend to agree mate. This health kick I'm on is basically getting out there and doing power walking 45-60 minutes quick walking 5-6 days a week, (lost 5 kg's since Christmas and very good for dealing with the stress I'm dealing with in regard to my daughter). Now I've got to thinking quite a number of times that one of those fancy hydration backpacks might be a good idea as its thirsty work.
So purely for the sake of a random exercise I just popped onto the FCO (Fishing camping and outdoors website), my local store is 100 metres away from my nearest KMD store and I see they have 2 litre hydration packs on sale for $27
http://www.fco.co.nz/online-store/ca....aspx?id=20406. For the sake of comparison I then jumped on the KMD site and there's are $80 on special, probably better but unlikely I'd be able to tell the difference.
As a purely random sample this sort of price disparity would worry me if I were a KMD shareholder. Every Tom, Dick, Harry and Roger would go to the FCO store wouldn't they or buy one on trade me for even less ?

You got one of those fancy fitness wristbands yet mate?

Consumerism gone mad

Garmin apparently sell 7000 a week of their model in Australasia ...Gerry Harvey cleaning up with a sales boost bought on such toys

[Beagle]

Roger,

I would be wary using the average analyst forecast. There is a big range from .15 to .225. Some of the higher forecasts may not have been revised down yet. Perhaps better to look at the bottom for a more conservative view.
http://www.4-traders.com/KATHMANDU-H...917/revisions/

Another thing to remember is that downgrades usually come in threes. Two more to go.

Cheers,
noodles

Thanks mate, well said. I can't see too many people paying KMD prices unless they're feeling pretty comfortably well off ????? PPL going down down down because people are moving to value brands...are we seeing the beginning of a similar thing with KMD ????