Orion Health

[kiora]

http://www.jsonline.com/business/pre...292166101.html
This is an $50 b industry in the USA alone ,of course Orion Health has competitors.
How is OHE positioned ?
Orion Health: Government Payer and Commercial Insurer Centric HIEs
Lets see what 2015 brings.OHE is certainly investing heavily for its future and we will see after the first quarter how the on-going planned transition from perpetual licences to subscription contracts pans out

[Bilbo]

Agree totally, mid $3s should be a buy, if they can once again generate positive cashflow

Will not buy until after the fall out from the end of the lock-up period for founder shares. Just take a look at what happened to SLI price once founders and employees started selling down after their lock-up ended.

[theace]

Will not buy until after the fall out from the end of the lock-up period for founder shares. Just take a look at what happened to SLI price once founders and employees started selling down after their lock-up ended.

When does the lock up period end?

[Bilbo]

When does the lock up period end?

In most cases it is "Escrowed Shares to be retained until the firstBusiness Day following Orion Health’spreliminary announcement of its financialresults for the six months to 30 September2015", however looks like Pioneer are only locked in for 3 months post listing, which would be 26th Feb (if my dates are correct). See page 165 of https://www.orionhealth.com/investor...pdf?d=20141127

[kiora]

NO luck man, wish i have a way to short it.... want to do it badly but couldn't find anything

How did you get on FW ?

[IAK]

Good rally this week, hopefully it will continue.

[kiora]

Really nobody who wants to take this? Come on guys, some of the supporters around here must have done some research before buying?

Discl: don't hold.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/indu...lacate--market
http://www.chilmarkresearch.com/2015...pires-to-paas/
Orion Health development spend developing a larger Moat compared to competitors ?

[gbogo]

FNZ started coverage with $5.89 target and NEUTRAL rating.

[BlackPeter]

Actually - for stuff standards a quite well researched article, thanks for posting.

And just to re-iterate ... nobody is saying OHE is a bad company - they are doing interesting stuff and do have already some stand in the market.

I am just concerned that all the hype around the IPO pushed the price in the risk / reward spectrum from the middle of the bell curve to the absolute maximum (i.e. leaving investors with all the risk, but little reward potential).

Looking at the article - I note that McCrae used interesting words when talking about the rumours related to another capital raising:

The flow of red ink has triggered concerns among punters on stock market forum Sharetrader that Orion might have to raise more capital through a rights issue as early as the end of this year. McCrae says that is not in the company's plans.

He didn't say there is no need for another capital raising, he just said, that it is not (yet?) in the company's plan. As we all know, plans can change

Interesting as well that they mentioned in the article Orions growth pains, already noticed by customers. Well - this is quite normal for a company of this size in a fast growing curve. If you hire too many new staff, than you need very good process, which you typically don't (yet) have in a company of this size. Give them a couple of years and a really good quality manager, than they might be fine, but just assuming they will push through this barrier without any impact on their exponential growth curve feels naive.

Looking at the SP - over this year two ESCROW agreements will run out - and the current holders paid ways less than the current SP. I think there is a good chance that some of them might want to cash in on their gains (and tear the SP down).

So yes - good company ... and personally do I think that it is possible to buy the shares in 9 to 12 months time at a much more realistic price than today. However - I obviously could be wrong - and maybe they are at that stage chasing the XRO curve (not sure, whether up or down)?

Discl: not holding (obviously)

[kiora]

NZX 50
http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU150...+12+March+2015