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27-02-2015, 06:32 PM
#2881
Hmmn Did anybody see that aprox. 200,000 shares went through around 5pm,manipulating the share price up by a cent,hmmn is that going to be the way it is now moving forward,the share price drops by a cent during the day then someone obviously secretly accumulating,goes and takes the offer price,I don't like this at all,somethings up. hahaha
In all seriousness its good to see for a change.
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27-02-2015, 06:51 PM
#2882
Originally Posted by MAC
Well well, that’s sooner than the “later in the year” reported just a couple of days away.
“A2 milk which will be sold in half gallon cartons for $4.00 to $4.50 with the strapline ‘The milk that might change everything’ – will arrive in several leading grocery stores from Kroger and safeway to whole foods, supported by advertising , in store demos, radio ads and a digital marketing drive.”
http://www.foodnavigator-usa.com/Man...ornia-in-April
Hey, that's a cracker of a story, well explained and to a great audience. I was surprised when I read that the US West Coast would only start selling A2 later in the year as I'd heard they were just about ready to start. Whole Foods, I gather, have a big reputation among the health-conscious in the US. And in a huge market like California you only need a small piece of the action to make money. This looks like takeoff year for a2MC.
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27-02-2015, 07:32 PM
#2883
How time flies when you are enjoying yourself
From the first page of this thread back in the good old days (24-Apr-2007)
Originally Posted by Enumerate
A2 LAUNCHES MILK INTO LUCRATIVE US MARKET
Major Supermarket Chain Hy-Vee to sell a2 milk(TM) across US Mid-West.
Auckland, 24 April 2007 - A2 Corporation announced today the inaugural launch of its premium a2 milk(TM) into the US market through an exclusive deal with a leading supermarket chain.
A2 Corporation's United States subsidiary, A2 Milk Company LLC, in partnership with Original Foods Company LLC, will launch its value-added a2 milk(TM) product through the leading US supermarket chain, Hy-Vee, which has stores throughout the Mid-Western states comprising Nebraska, Iowa, Kansas, Illinois, Missouri, South Dakota, and Minnesota.
Hy-Vee has sales of more than US$4.6 billion and more than 200 retail stores across the seven Midwestern states, and ranks among the top 15 supermarket chains in the United States.
Anthony Lawler, CEO of A2 Corporation says the launch of a2 milk(TM) into the United States is a major platform for growth and follows several years of solid preparation.
"A2 Corporation is very excited to now have its milk product available in the US market which holds tremendous promise for revenue growth and for expanding our business in one of the biggest consumer and beverage markets in the world. We are also very pleased to have achieved entry into the lucrative US market according to the time frame we set last year and look forward to increasing our share of the market as US consumers develop a taste for a2 milk(TM)," says Lawler.
Tim Thietje President of The Original Foods Company says that the company is glad to be the first U.S. based company to partner with A2 to produce a2 milk(TM) for sale to American consumers.
"After two years of planning and hard work, The Original Foods Company is very excited to launch The Original Foods Company a2 milk(TM) into more than 200 Hy-Vee Food and Drug stores across the Mid-West. a2 milk(TM) delivers on our mission to sell premium quality, natural and functional foods, and our close working relationship with A2 and Hy-Vee supermarkets offers the opportunity to work with partners that share our vision," says Thietje.
Lawler also says that the launch of a2 milk(TM) into the US follows a concerted programme to develop the market which the company has been working on for some time and which it plans to extend beyond the Mid-West. Lawler would also like to thank Ideasphere Inc. (A2 Corporation's joint venture partner in USA) whose effort, support and expertise has been critical in the a2 milk (TM) launch.
Cliff Cook, A2 Corporation's Chairman stated that "the company now knows the US beverages market in detail via consumer and market studies as well as in depth discussions we've had with producers, distributors and retailers. We look forward to extending a2 milk(TM) beyond the initial select market of the Mid-West into other parts of the US which provides the best business environment in the world to grow our product."
ENDS
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
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27-02-2015, 08:13 PM
#2884
Yes PT, things didn't go so well in the US first time round - it was too early.
In December 2008 the A2 Milk Company announced it was withdrawing product from sale in the US pending a re-branding and re-launch on a broader scale across the US. According to Keith Woodford's book, it was found hard to market a product where the issues were complex, where there were constraints on the promotion of its health message, and where consumers remained ignorant or confused about the issues.
Things have moved on a lot since then. And there are dairy farmers in the US who geared up for A2 at that time and are still keen to get going again. When messages about A2's now-proven digestive advantages and the benefits to autism sufferers are picked up by US consumers via the media, as they have been in Australia despite constraints there on a2MC actually promoting its health benefits, sales should follow. These benefits were not really known or scientifically documented back in 2007, hence consumer ignorance at that time.
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28-02-2015, 03:20 PM
#2885
Originally Posted by Harrie
If Australian growth continues, and if the UK market becomes profitable and if they can replicate the success in other markets then we can justify a high valuation. There are a lot of ifs in that valuation. Yet nothing has fired, in profit terms, outside of Australia yet. And the capital expansion bin is bare.
This is where I totally agree with you. There are a lot of if's. Its a growth company. Of course there are plenty of ifs. If there wasn't the price would not be where it is now.
If we take the latest Forsyth Barr report at face value, then if the UK and China and the USA all go according to plan then the share is worth $1.24 (fair value). But this outcome depends on the UK and China going earnings positive to fund the US growth.
If say the chance of success in the UK is 75%, the chance of success in China is 75% and the chance of success in the USA is 50% (after all A2 have had one failed attempt there), then all of these probabilities must be muliplied together to get the chance of overall success.
0.75 x 0.75 x 0.5 = 0.28
So the fair value price to pay today based on Forsyth Barrs conquered USA assessment is:
0.28 x $1.24 = 35c
The price that is worth paying will increase if the business strategy plays out completely. But an ATM price in the mid 50s is far too high to pay now, given the risks going forward.
Personally I prefer to buy my investments at below fair value. 28c is 20% below fair value of 35c. So that's when I start getting interested. Right now from where I sit, ATM is just another grossly overvalued growth share.
SNOOPY
Last edited by Snoopy; 28-02-2015 at 03:30 PM.
Watch out for the most persistent and dangerous version of Covid-19: B.S.24/7
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28-02-2015, 04:23 PM
#2886
On my rounds and just a little behind..
Not a fan of Tobins Q then eh Snoopy?
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28-02-2015, 05:24 PM
#2887
Originally Posted by Snoopy
If we take the latest Forsyth Barr report at face value, then if the UK and China and the USA all go according to plan then the share is worth $1.24 (fair value). But this outcome depends on the UK and China going earnings positive to fund the US growth.
If say the chance of success in the UK is 75%, the chance of success in China is 75% and the chance of success in the USA is 50% (after all A2 have had one failed attempt there), then all of these probabilities must be muliplied together to get the chance of overall success.
0.75 x 0.75 x 0.5 = 0.28
So the fair value price to pay today based on Forsyth Barrs conquered USA assessment is:
0.28 x $1.24 = 35c
The price that is worth paying will increase if the business strategy plays out completely. But an ATM price in the mid 50s is far too high to pay now, given the risks going forward.
Personally I prefer to buy my investments at below fair value. 28c is 20% below fair value of 35c. So that's when I start getting interested. Right now from where I sit, ATM is just another grossly overvalued growth share.
SNOOPY
You've not added the Australian arm there. I think you've suggested a share price in the 20s for the Australian business, lets say 25c. $1.28 - 0.25 = 1.03 for rest of the world. Taking your probabilities,
$1.03 * 0.28 = 0.29
0.29 + 0.25 = 0.54 total
Doesn't take much more optimism to justify the current SP.
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28-02-2015, 06:37 PM
#2888
Failed Failure Mode Analysis
Originally Posted by Snoopy
...If say the chance of success in the UK is 75%, the chance of success in China is 75% and the chance of success in the USA is 50% (after all A2 have had one failed attempt there), then all of these probabilities must be muliplied together to get the chance of overall success.
0.75 x 0.75 x 0.5 = 0.28
So the fair value price to pay today based on Forsyth Barrs conquered USA assessment is:
0.28 x $1.24 = 35c
...
Pretty confident that multiplying those probabilities together is not valid there Snoopy.
A more sensible approach would be to take some sort of weighted average of the three numbers.
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
Disc: A2 UK have promised me some discount vouchers but I am not influenced by such bribery.
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28-02-2015, 06:48 PM
#2889
Originally Posted by Paper Tiger
Pretty confident that multiplying those probabilities together is not valid there Snoopy.
A more sensible approach would be to take some sort of weighted average of the three numbers.
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
Disc: A2 UK have promised me some discount vouchers but I am not influenced by such bribery.
Yeah multiplying those probabilities is so wrong. Could not work out what Snoopy is thinking there. The markets are mutually exclusive and each has their own probability of success. WA is definitely better.
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28-02-2015, 07:45 PM
#2890
What is success anyway ?
Running with the earlier post and boring the pants off everybody (and that is despite not listing any assumptions):
ATM-Success.PNG
What the 0.28 (28%) represents is the probability of Success in all three markets.
Success in any two markets has a probability of nearly 47%.
Single market success is nearly 22%
and abject failure across the 3 is 3%.
I expect lots of meaningful discussion based on these figures
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
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