How much capital do I need to retire comfortably on ?

[Beagle]

I went to a retirement conference put on by the (as they were known at the time, New Zealand Society of Accountants). Was about 15 or thereabouts years ago and really freaked me out.
So called experts there reckoned you need $1.5m - $2.0m to retire comfortably on and had a raft of expert opinions and analysis to back it up.

Key Themes they espoused at that time included.
1. Despite a widely held belief by many older folks they are happy to trade down in their house when the time comes to retire, so as to free up capital, the evidence suggests most people are extremely reluctant to do so.
2. Best to plan on an average of 3 - 4% per annum after tax from a well diversified portfolio of low risk investments.
3. It is best to plan that National Superannuation in its current form won't exist when it comes time to retire.

When I have more time tomorrow I'll unpack why I believe all these three major theories are fundamentally flawed.

[Harvey Specter]

People off say you can downsize in retirement and your living costs reduce. That is fine while you are healthy and mobile, and then die suddenly.

With modern medicine though, you are more likely to live to a very old age, requiring lots of medical and home care assistance. So you need to ask yourself, not just what sort of active retirement do you want, but what sort of retirement do you want once you are no longer healthy and active.

My Grandparents decided they wanted to say in their own home. That's all well and good but 24/7 care costs $200k a year if you go through an agency and that doesn't include all your other costs. Sure that is the expensive way but what would a similar level of care cost in a nice retirement/care facility? $100k. And how long can you last in that condition - my grandmother was looking dodgy for a while but then they put a pacemaker in (at over the age of 90!) and now she will probably live till 100! 10 years x $200k = $2m - Ouch! and that is just from the age of 90. God knows how much they spent from 65 to 90 when they were still active enough for multiple overseas trips a year.

I'm aiming for $10m plus on the basis I dont lead a cheap life now so why would I want to in retirement. I'm quite a bit behind where I should be unfortunately.

[BIRMANBOY]

The size, quantity and variety of cheese usually spurs the avid treadmill devotee on to the necessary levels of effort. Keep up the good work

People off say you can downsize in retirement and your living costs reduce. That is fine while you are healthy and mobile, and then die suddenly.

With modern medicine though, you are more likely to live to a very old age, requiring lots of medical and home care assistance. So you need to ask yourself, not just what sort of active retirement do you want, but what sort of retirement do you want once you are no longer healthy and active.

My Grandparents decided they wanted to say in their own home. That's all well and good but 24/7 care costs $200k a year if you go through an agency and that doesn't include all your other costs. Sure that is the expensive way but what would a similar level of care cost in a nice retirement/care facility? $100k. And how long can you last in that condition - my grandmother was looking dodgy for a while but then they put a pacemaker in (at over the age of 90!) and now she will probably live till 100! 10 years x $200k = $2m - Ouch! and that is just from the age of 90. God knows how much they spent from 65 to 90 when they were still active enough for multiple overseas trips a year.

I'm aiming for $10m plus on the basis I dont lead a cheap life now so why would I want to in retirement. I'm quite a bit behind where I should be unfortunately.