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23-04-2015, 12:25 PM
#921
Originally Posted by robbo24
I occasionally bet on the horses but I'm not interested in betting, thank you though.
I just cannot fathom why anyone would sell into such great news? I hope it's not Sorehead selling down!
Maybe the market is concerned that the "deployment phase" means that the "cash burn" is even higher than predicted. Afterall, with VML as revenue increases so does its expenses. Higher revenue, higher expenses, higher loss.
Funny how VML refer to cancellations of their own contracts in the announcement
I also find it amusing that a share consolidation (read: painting the Cortina matte black) is defined as a key investor milestone I thought it could be better described as a shameless attempt by the company to hide its dark past... That's hype for you though!
Key investor milestones for 2015 include:
- Share consolidation to take place on May 7th 2015
- Pre dual-listing private placement, and subsequent public offer of new capital in conjunction with the ASX dual listing
- Dual listing on the ASX in Q3 2015
Does this mean that the pre listing cap raise will be for mates / insiders only if it's a private placement?
All the loyal VML shareholders might miss out. Pity the mates / insiders may get their private placement at a sweet discount and be ready to sell down and crush the share price on ASX listing.
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23-04-2015, 12:32 PM
#922
Originally Posted by axe
Key investor milestones for 2015 include:
- Share consolidation to take place on May 7th 2015
- Pre dual-listing private placement, and subsequent public offer of new capital in conjunction with the ASX dual listing
- Dual listing on the ASX in Q3 2015
Does this mean that the pre listing cap raise will be for mates / insiders only if it's a private placement?
All the loyal VML shareholders might miss out. Pity the mates / insiders may get their private placement at a sweet discount and be ready to sell down and crush the share price on ASX listing.
Yeah, I'm expecting the same trick as last time: raise capital at a slight discount to the SP and then a few days later release some new contract details to give the SP a good bump.
I'm hoping that's not the way they play it but I've got low expectations.
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23-04-2015, 12:56 PM
#923
Member
Soo all, what do we think of the unaudited results?
Based on my terrible FA skills I estimate AMCR from McD's (Japan, Sweden, Netherlands) to be [very] roughly 2.5m. Based on store figures from Macdonalds (Wikipedia 2013) the USA has about 3.92 times the amount of stores Japan, Sweden and the Netherlands do combined. So - 2.5m AMCR x 3.92 (USA market size) = 9.8m AMCR - but I assume there will be a discount for the global contract.
Now USA, Japan, Netherlands and Sweden represent about a 1/3 of all global McD's - so we could potentially be looking at revenues in 2017-2018 of 20 - 30m for Macdonalds alone, excluding voucher redemptions and other VML upsells?
Looking like a tasty treat to me - even if Im a few (or even 10) million out! Perhaps they will release updated AMCR figures before ASX IPO when USA MacD's/7-11 Aus are rolled out...
Would love for someone to do some experienced FA calcs on this and correct me. Wallace D (actually anyone for or against VML - except Robbo) your opinions are always welcome. Although i suspect the troll will chime in regardless.
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23-04-2015, 12:57 PM
#924
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23-04-2015, 01:03 PM
#925
Member
Originally Posted by Baa_Baa
Great to see McD's USA revenue appearing in the results already! And with that to continue and 7-Eleven revenue coming on stream, the rate of growth in revenue is phenomenal, it's 2015 game on!
I wonder how many USA stores??? The said they would only be completing Japan rollout in early 2015....
Also, I don't expect the Australian 7-eleven revenue to amount to much - just like the flybuys app - its spread across too many products. Only about 600 aussie stores, 50-100k-ish revenue?
Last edited by Ginger_steps_; 23-04-2015 at 01:09 PM.
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23-04-2015, 01:21 PM
#926
Originally Posted by axe
Key investor milestones for 2015 include:
- Share consolidation to take place on May 7th 2015
- Pre dual-listing private placement, and subsequent public offer of new capital in conjunction with the ASX dual listing
- Dual listing on the ASX in Q3 2015
Does this mean that the pre listing cap raise will be for mates / insiders only if it's a private placement?
All the loyal VML shareholders might miss out. Pity the mates / insiders may get their private placement at a sweet discount and be ready to sell down and crush the share price on ASX listing.
I dont think they had previously said it was a private placement. I was hoping for a SPP given the last raise was a private placement.
Hard to justify a discount to VWAP but I am sure they will try (or manipulate VWAP).
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23-04-2015, 01:30 PM
#927
Originally Posted by Ginger_steps_
I wonder how many USA stores??? The said they would only be completing Japan rollout in early 2015....
Also, I don't expect the Australian 7-eleven revenue to amount to much - just like the flybuys app - its spread across too many products. Only about 600 aussie stores, 50-100k-ish revenue?
33% growth in ACMR in three months and since only having had announced McD's global contract on Jan26 https://www.nzx.com/companies/VML/announcements/260004 there's only two months that could have contributed to ACMR, so I doubt if there are very many of the well over 35,000 stores in those numbers, hence plenty of ACMR upside growth to come!
I'd expect the 7-Eleven Aus rollout of 600 stores to make a tidy contribution of course, but the kicker would be if like McDonalds, VMob could sign up 7-Eleven Inc, which is the world’s largest convenience store chain with more than 55,800 stores in 16 countries, of which approximately 10,500 are in North America.
Last edited by Baa_Baa; 23-04-2015 at 01:31 PM.
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23-04-2015, 01:33 PM
#928
Member
Originally Posted by Ginger_steps_
I wonder how many USA stores??? The said they would only be completing Japan rollout in early 2015....
Also, I don't expect the Australian 7-eleven revenue to amount to much - just like the flybuys app - its spread across too many products. Only about 600 aussie stores, 50-100k-ish revenue?
I don't think the 7-eleven contract in Australia will mount to much either but nevertheless it is important because like Esso in Norway and McDonalds in Netherlands this can be the international pilot or test and a successful implementation has definite capability to lead onto much larger and hopefully global contracts.
There has been some discussion this morning about who is next and the reality is we will not know until the announcements are made. But there is an expectation that announcements will be made. Speculation I know. But there is nothing to suggest VMob are anything but in the right place at the right time with a product that will be in demand. And that is what Im excited about.
Sadly the market reaction to this mornings announcement has been very muted - I would have thought a 1600% increase on the 2014 revenue would be something to get excited about. Maybe the Aussies will like that massive revenue increase come Q3 when the listing on the ASX progresses.
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23-04-2015, 01:36 PM
#929
Originally Posted by Harvey Specter
I dont think they had previously said it was a private placement. I was hoping for a SPP given the last raise was a private placement.
Hard to justify a discount to VWAP but I am sure they will try (or manipulate VWAP).
Harvey, if you're hoping for a SPP, would that be because you'd expect or also hope for a discount to the SP on the day, or VWAP? If so I would have thought it less risky than waiting for an SPP, to just buy your quota on market now while the SP is so low? For myself, I'm already fully loaded and then some, so it makes no difference to me particularly how they raise the capital. The good news I think is that with decent revenues flowing now and very promising growth in revenue expected, that the capital raising will be less than it might have been had the VMob still be making losses.
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23-04-2015, 01:38 PM
#930
Originally Posted by Harvey Specter
I dont think they had previously said it was a private placement. I was hoping for a SPP given the last raise was a private placement.
Hard to justify a discount to VWAP but I am sure they will try (or manipulate VWAP).
They certainly did not mention it was a private placement. "New equity capital to be raised via a pre listing placement and an offer to be made at the time of the IPO on ASX." https://www.nzx.com/companies/VML/announcements/262048
Bradley is taking at least 250k salary out of this very small company.
Insiders get priority and discounted prices over shareholders when it comes to raising capital.
Small shareholders get diluted and washed out
My understanding of things like insider trading laws is limited but goes like this.
Private placement not subject to insider trading laws ( load up your mates with cheap shares)
But insiders can't sell while in possession of "inside information" (that would be insider trading)
So make an announcement to market allowing your mates to dump their shares. (as its not insider trading anymore, because you are not in possession of information the market doesn't have)
Cool they haven't broken any laws.
But really as a shareholder are they serving your best interests?
Will the losses keep growing and as they keep issuing shares to the insiders, will you smaller shareholders buy off them on market or get left by the wayside?
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