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16-07-2015, 08:31 AM
#1601
Sorry folks - I never anticipated the very large (10.7%) drop last night in the global dairy trade price index.
Unless our QoQ CPI (to be announced in a couple of hours) comes in higher than expected (0.6%) then I can't see the kiwi dollar recovering much until after the next OCR announcement...more's the pity.
To foretell the future, one must first unlock the secrets of the past.
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16-07-2015, 10:20 AM
#1602
Originally Posted by Bobcat.
Sorry folks - I never anticipated the very large (10.7%) drop last night in the global dairy trade price index.
Unless our QoQ CPI (to be announced in a couple of hours) comes in higher than expected (0.6%) then I can't see the kiwi dollar recovering much until after the next OCR announcement...more's the pity.
No need to apologise , from my reading you were/ are the only one on here Bullish on the Kiwi at the moment .
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16-07-2015, 11:08 AM
#1603
CPI only 0.4% and lower than expected
Yep Wheeler will succumb and 0.5% points cut next time and more to come. Banks will get their way
That won't be good for NZD
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
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16-07-2015, 11:28 AM
#1604
Retail sales in the US were -0.3% & this is summer !
Yellen seems determined to raise rates as to not do so would knock confidence.
Kiwi yes softer, but I'm starting to wonder about the strength of the USD as well.
Interesting times.
Hopefully you find my posts helpful, but in no way should they be construed as advice. Make your own decision.
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16-07-2015, 08:41 PM
#1605
El Toro~
Thoughts on Yellens comments today? I suggest they are somewhat optimistic
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19-07-2015, 10:09 PM
#1606
My year end target for NZD was one NZD equals to 0.60 cents of USD. Now I believe it can reach 0.55 or below that level.We should see further weakness in NZD in 2016 and 2017 as well due to rising interest in the USA. 2017/18 should become very bullish period for USD.
My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity, property or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.
Last edited by Valuegrowth; 21-07-2015 at 06:09 PM.
Reason: To adjust a sentence
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20-07-2015, 10:11 AM
#1607
Westpac in their weekly review this week 'How low can you go' saying OCR 2.0% by year end .....and reading between the lines even lower next year.
Sudden change if views from Westpac - wonder what their motivation for being so bearish is?
Nzdusd at mid 50's?
Mind you they still forecasting GDP > 3% next year
Last edited by winner69; 20-07-2015 at 10:15 AM.
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
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20-07-2015, 10:16 PM
#1608
We should see some weakness in both New Zealand and Australian economy in the coming years. Only way to have some growth is allowing their currencies to depreciate further. In addition, speculative hot money is also leaving commodity currencies. My biggest worry is will NZD and AUD go below 0.35 and below 0.45 respectively against USD during the period from 2017/18. We should see gradual rising of interest rate in the USA from 2016 onwards.On top of that I believe in cycles in assets including currency cycle. I became bearish on currencies such as NZD, AUD and CAD before others. These currencies went up rapidly against emerging and frontier market currencies as well during last couple of years. They are gradually going to adjust to the correct value.
After NZD, We could see down fall in Auckland housing market during next five years. Chinese slow down also will affect asset prices.
My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity, property or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions
Last edited by Valuegrowth; 20-07-2015 at 10:17 PM.
Reason: to adjust a sentence.
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20-07-2015, 10:59 PM
#1609
Originally Posted by MARKETWINNER
We should see some weakness in both New Zealand and Australian economy in the coming years. Only way to have some growth is allowing their currencies to depreciate further. In addition, speculative hot money is also leaving commodity currencies. My biggest worry is will NZD and AUD go below 0.35 and below 0.45 respectively against USD during the period from 2017/18. We should see gradual rising of interest rate in the USA from 2016 onwards.On top of that I believe in cycles in assets including currency cycle. I became bearish on currencies such as NZD, AUD and CAD before others. These currencies went up rapidly against emerging and frontier market currencies as well during last couple of years. They are gradually going to adjust to the correct value.
After NZD, We could see down fall in Auckland housing market during next five years. Chinese slow down also will affect asset prices.
My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity, property or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions
Kiwi at 35 cents vs the USD, be some pretty cheap houses in Auckland for an offshore investor
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20-07-2015, 11:12 PM
#1610
Originally Posted by MARKETWINNER
My year end target for NZD was one USD equals to 0.60 cents NZD.
lol
BULLISH!
For clarity, nothing I say is advice....
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