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11-08-2015, 06:28 AM
#651
Originally Posted by Snoopy
This share should be valued over the long term on its ability to pay dividends only. The low ROE figure is not sufficient to be sure of growth given a ten year timeframe. The Warren Buffett style growth model won't fit as a result. Yet actually, there is something wrong with this analysis as I have presented it. It deserves a closer look. But that will have to wait until tomorrow!
SNOOPY
I didn't-regretfully-buy into MRP because I felt they were too exposed to a dry summer.
Have they overcome this problem with geothermal supplying base load and I presume hydro able to do some base plus act as peakers?.
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11-08-2015, 09:10 AM
#652
I have been trying to find some information of the following, come someone point me in the right direction please.
Over the past 5 years I have read that demand for power has decreased 0.2%pa in NZ so I would assume prices would have to go up to get in increasing revenue. Where could I get the info on demand (units used) and price (per unit) for the past few years? Not just for MRP, but in NZ.
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11-08-2015, 09:28 AM
#653
Originally Posted by LAC
I have been trying to find some information of the following, come someone point me in the right direction please.
Over the past 5 years I have read that demand for power has decreased 0.2%pa in NZ so I would assume prices would have to go up to get in increasing revenue. Where could I get the info on demand (units used) and price (per unit) for the past few years? Not just for MRP, but in NZ.
Try here, http://www.emi.ea.govt.nz
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11-08-2015, 09:33 AM
#654
Thanks Baa Baa, exactly what I was looking for
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11-08-2015, 10:18 AM
#655
Originally Posted by trader_jackson
So in other words, MRP is a buy?
I admire your desire to 'cut to the chase' TJ. But for a fundamentals investor such as myself, that isn't how it works. My procedure is:
1/ Design a financial model so that I can value MRP on my own assumptions.
2/ Check the market price to see what sort of discount I can get on my perceived 'value', and consequently whether I feel MRP is a buy or not.
So far I am only doing step 1. I bought MRP at float time. But whether I would buy more today is another question. At the moment, I don't know the answer.
SNOOPY
PS I might add a third step too. Even if I do decide MRP is a buy, I ask the question:
"Is it more of a buy than another comparative option such as CEN?"
Last edited by Snoopy; 11-08-2015 at 01:24 PM.
Reason: spelling
Watch out for the most persistent and dangerous version of Covid-19: B.S.24/7
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11-08-2015, 10:30 AM
#656
Originally Posted by Snoopy
[b]
....and 8 hydro stations on the Waitaki River in the northern-cental North Island.
SNOOPY
I sure Snoopy meant Waikato River.
Boop boop de
Marilyn
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11-08-2015, 10:37 AM
#657
Originally Posted by Snoopy
I admire your desire to 'cut to the chase' TJ. But for a fundamentals investor such as myself, that isn't how it works. My procedure is:
1/ Design a financial model so that I can value MRP on my own assumptions.
2/ Check the market price to see what sort of discount I can get on my perceived 'value', and consequently whether I feel MRP is a buy or not.
So far I am only doing step 1. I bought MRP at float time. But whether I would buy more today is another question. At the moment, I don't know the answer.
SNOOPY
PS I might add a third step too. Even if I do decide MRP is a buy, I ask teh question:
"Is it more of a buy than another comparative option such as CEN?"
And I thought 1 was turn on steam powered calculator and wait for it to warm up ?
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11-08-2015, 10:47 AM
#658
Thanks for the post Snoopy. A great contributor. I haven't followed your ARI thread as I immediately thought you were insane to go against the commodity price trend even the companies supplying the miners would suffer I would have thought.
P.S. I hope it goes well for you.
Last edited by Aaron; 11-08-2015 at 11:15 AM.
Reason: not sure what happened re ARI didnt want to sound like an arse
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11-08-2015, 04:49 PM
#659
Originally Posted by fish
I didn't-regretfully-buy into MRP because I felt they were too exposed to a dry summer.
Have they overcome this problem with geothermal supplying base load and I presume hydro able to do some base plus act as peakers?.
A great question fish. I was being a bit naughty suggesting that the entire Waikato river has now been reduced to a 'top up' system supporting the 'main' source of power generation - geothermal. MRP still generates more power in total from hydro, even in the driest catchment years. However, it is true that hydro is a very effective peaker as well.
The best way I know to answer it is to present you with a table of 'Electricity sales to Customers' vs 'Electricity Generated'. I could make up some desperate theoretical scenario. But real life can be almost as desperate. So I will take FY2013 as representative of the highest demand I can find ('FY2013 Electricity Sales').
To make it just that bit harder for MRP for hydro generation purposes, I will take the year that departed CEO Doug Heffernan described thus:
"inflows to the Waikato hydro river system being the lowest in the Company's history" (FY2014, p9 ARvw2014).
Geothermal energy is regarded as a highly stable source of renewable energy. I shall use FY2014 again because this was the first year over which all of Genesis's geothermal power plants were up and operating.
To be extra nasty, rather than look just on an 'annual basis', I will present the quarterly figures, to see if I can expose any seasonal weakness in the power supply/demand profile.
So how does MRPs 'demand' vs 'generation' equation stack up?
|
Q4 30th June |
Q3 31st March |
Q2 31st December |
Q1 30th September |
FY2013 Electricity Sales (GWh) |
1316 |
1159 |
1272 |
1505 |
less FY2014 Geothermal Generation (GWh) |
670 |
682 |
630 |
691 |
less FY2014 Hydro Generation (GWh) |
815 |
834 |
985 |
863 |
Generation Power Surplus (GWh) |
169 |
357 |
343 |
49 |
That result should give you some reassurance Fish. Sure, in the depth of winter September quarter, the power surplus from renewables is getting thin. But it is still there, even in the combination worst year conditions the weather has thrown at MRP so far!
SNOOPY
Last edited by Snoopy; 27-03-2018 at 10:39 AM.
Watch out for the most persistent and dangerous version of Covid-19: B.S.24/7
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11-08-2015, 05:31 PM
#660
Originally Posted by Snoopy
That result should give you some reassurance Fish. Sure, in the depth of winter September quarter, the power surplus from renewables is getting thin. But it is still there, even in the combination worst year conditions the weather has thrown at MRP so far!
A follow up comment on power generation in the 21st century.
The above table I have produced is representative of the 20th century 'bricks and mortar' generation system. These days we have 'virtual power plants'. With a 'virtual power plant', rival generators can have under contract access to a rival's power station in a different island in times of unusual river flows (for example). Next there is the NZ power 'hedge market' operated out of the ASX I believe. Then of course there is the 'regular market' where gentailers can buy power off each other by signing up to the lowest quoted marginal cost net supplier of power. The whole thing has got very complex. Nevertheless I think there is still real value in looking at the 'hard asset' to 'customer sales' power balance. If nothing else it provides a 'base case' of what is happening, and is the ultimate measure of reversion should all of these fancy 'on paper' power trading systems be suspended.
SNOOPY
Last edited by Snoopy; 11-08-2015 at 05:35 PM.
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