MVN Methven

[winner69]

Sure was an impressive presentation and look at those numbers - $13m in 2018

What can one make out of it - maybe lots

Lets assume 5 outcomes -

1.- it all goes to plan and that $13m happens
2.- above but the market is in raptures and rerates Methven, ie a higher PE
3.- sort of goes to plan but they only get half way there
4.- its all pretty pictures and nice words and Methven struggle on as usual
5.- another GFC hits and it all turns to custard

Possible outcomes in graphic. Shows Total Shareholder Return over the 3 years and I have assigned some odds to each scenario

Could get a return of 42% pa over 3 years or lose 6% over the three years. But based on the odds I have assigned to each scenario an expected return of 20%pa

Bloody good eh

But then some of you might assign 90% to scenario 4 which ruins the story

Hmmm - have I been seduced

That was my little analysis after that July presentation they did

Looks like the pumping on steroids Scenario is playing out - shareprice $2.58 in 2018 for a 42% pa return

No I wasn't seduced bck in July ..... share price much the same as back then so plenty of time to get seduced again