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10-11-2015, 03:08 PM
#1071
Originally Posted by Snoopy
Did you see the 'Hunters Corner' article in the NBR last week? The short summary was normally unexcisable options became activated when Origin sold out. Unfortunately for those that had the options (senior managers) they are out of the money, but only just. By doing an on market buyback, managment can inch the share price higher into the $5.20 plus range, making the options viable. Of course, if the options were then exercised this would reverse much of the value of the on market buyback for Mum and Dad shareholders! Maybe some shareholders see this as a rort, indicative of future behaviour of the management of the company, and want out?
SNOOPY
The problem with that article was the alternative that was proposed (pro-rata buyback) isn't possible under tax legislation (unless over 10% of market cap) as it would be treated as a dividend (taxable) for tax purposes.
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10-11-2015, 05:16 PM
#1072
Missed that article, I have noticed that the majority of the share buy back has been well below 5.15 range and suspect some more today at less than 5.10 so not sure if there is evidence of them pushing the price over 5.20, from what I can see they have been buying on rather low share price days in comparison to the higher share price days where they haven't been buying back.
I would have thought an open market buy back would have pushed the price up considerably more than it has and figure there is some big selling off from the origin side and the NZ dollar is weak so a reasonable time to do it. Just keep thinking (rightly or wrongly) that with a considerable amount of shares being bought back to go it will have to have some improvement yet. I wont lose having bought in at very low prices (they had to be with me sitting on the fence for so long) so worst case scenario I break even. Rethinking hanging in there for the longer term though.
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25-11-2015, 07:54 PM
#1073
CFO just bought 20,000 shares on market......
just a touch over 7million shares into the buy back, so about 12.5 million or thereabouts to go.
Wondering when what I presume to be the Origin sell off will finish, if the Origin sale of Contact included 200million dollars in shares and the buy back is 100million how many of those 200million will be sold? I haven't seen any change in substantial holdings so maybe barking up the wrong tree but not sure why the SP is still showing resistance. All things aside with the senior managers Contact still seems a decent bargain at the moment particularly bearing in mind the interest rates at present and other gentailers SP increasing over the last week or two.
Just trying to decide to keep CEN or sell towards the end of the buyback and see if I can get back in at an even more bargain price if the weakness continues.
Appreciate any further insight....
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25-11-2015, 09:20 PM
#1074
Understand your position completely workingdad, this is one stock in my portfolio that I'm frustrated with currently. Just doesn't seem to go anywhere, all other gentailers seem to be doing ok but this one just stuck in that 5-5.10ish range. When they announced buyback it crept up to 5.15 or so from memory and thought its on the way back to 6 dollar mark, but does not seem that way. They held few investor presentations in the past few weeks both here and Aus but not much impact on sp, looks as though instos are not that keen buy in.
Not saying happy to hold but will hold for now until HY results out in new year and may be there's is an element of surprise??
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26-11-2015, 04:27 AM
#1075
I just keep reminding myself that they will still have surplus cash and should do well in dry summer and a reasonably safe bet in some challenging times for the stock market if the bear does take hold..... HY results I anticipate to be good with the monthly operational data of late.
Might end up keeping half of my holdings and hedging my bets on them but still deciding
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07-12-2015, 11:04 AM
#1076
Looks like another tough day for CEN. But a good opportunity for the buy-back to maximise effect
I didn't think the monthly report was really that bad
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07-12-2015, 11:25 AM
#1077
Originally Posted by xafalcon
Looks like another tough day for CEN. But a good opportunity for the buy-back to maximise effect
I didn't think the monthly report was really that bad
Agreed ... most of the sellers today probably pushed the SELL button after reading the summary on page 1, without looking at the rest of the report.
Improved cash flow, hydro storage (despite low inflow) still above 100% of mean and predicted earnings similar to last year don't sound like the end of the world to me.
Discl: holding - and might pick up some more, if the price keeps dropping ...
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"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)
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07-12-2015, 11:57 AM
#1078
Yes, the pg1 summary was definitely written in the tone of "the glass half empty".
At current SP and buy-back underway it was too tempting, so I bought back in this morning
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07-12-2015, 12:54 PM
#1079
I wonder why they didn't wait until after this announcement to execute the buyback ? Was always going to make the shares cheaper, and therefore they would have got more bang for their buck. They must have known how it was trending.
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07-12-2015, 01:44 PM
#1080
$4.73 looks pretty attractive to me.....
Last edited by Crackity; 07-12-2015 at 01:45 PM.
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