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19-01-2016, 05:28 PM
#1841
Originally Posted by Cobber
Nah.... be realistic mate.
Multiples for ACMR are dropping. We're at 7x now.
7 x $4.8m = $33.6 million.
They have probably crept up a little since the 6 month HY.... but that is already baked into the current SP.
When they hit ACMR of $10m.... then let's have another conversation.... but right now.... I'm basing everything on fact.
The facts I'm going on are simple, Scott saying they value the company at 10x ACMR and the forecast $10m ACMR 6-9 months out.
Where you got your "fact" of 7x who knows, was it Harvey's clarification? Also that $4.8m ACMR is not 'now' it is 3.5 months old, so you haven't allowed for any ACMR growth since End-Sept 2015.
Even at your 7x ACMR valuation makes the SP about $0.85 when we get the updated ACMR exceeding $10m. Your SP valuation now is about $0.40 or ~20% down on today's closing price, so the market seems not to agree with you either.
Anyway, I guess we all have different strategies about when and how many we buy or hold, each to their own.
I was surprised no one has anything to discuss about this new NZX main board entrant.
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20-01-2016, 09:02 AM
#1842
Member
Originally Posted by Baa_Baa
The facts I'm going on are simple, Scott saying they value the company at 10x ACMR and the forecast $10m ACMR 6-9 months out.
Where you got your "fact" of 7x who knows, was it Harvey's clarification? Also that $4.8m ACMR is not 'now' it is 3.5 months old, so you haven't allowed for any ACMR growth since End-Sept 2015.
Even at your 7x ACMR valuation makes the SP about $0.85 when we get the updated ACMR exceeding $10m. Your SP valuation now is about $0.40 or ~20% down on today's closing price, so the market seems not to agree with you either.
Anyway, I guess we all have different strategies about when and how many we buy or hold, each to their own.
I was surprised no one has anything to discuss about this new NZX main board entrant.
Ummmm I think you will find Scottie might be a little bias.
I'm trying to work out your maths - 7 x ACMR ($4.8) = $33.6 million. That would give it a SP around $0.45
If you calculate at 10 x ACMR, then the SP is about right.
Surely you're not suggesting the SP should be at $0.85 cents based on a forecast that reaches into August this year??
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20-01-2016, 09:19 AM
#1843
Originally Posted by Cobber
Surely you're not suggesting the SP should be at $0.85 cents based on a forecast that reaches into August this year??
No, the share price shouldn't be that now. But that is an indication of what it could be in August if 1) they hit the 10m ACMR and 2) the 10x multiple is correct.
You are free to use a different ACMR and multiple, then work out if that potential growth is worth the risk that they dont hit that ACMR or the multiple you have used should have been lower. (ie.work backwards and say if price in August is predicted to be 85c, and I need a x% return to compensate for risk, discount back to a price you are comfortable with today).
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20-01-2016, 10:00 AM
#1844
@Cobber what the SP should or shouldn't be will always be speculation for a high growth pre-profit company, perhaps we can agree on that. I'm sure there are those that would like to see the SP back @40 cps since they may feel they are missing this train.
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20-01-2016, 10:15 AM
#1845
VMob are at the massive NRF conference in New York at the moment, front and centre on the Microsoft stand. Here's a quick clip of Scott's demo of the VMob platform for QSR convenience stores. https://vimeo.com/152192124 ... and Scott's blog, Day 2. http://blog.vmob.com/2016/01/thought...nrf16-day-two/
Last edited by Baa_Baa; 20-01-2016 at 10:18 AM.
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22-01-2016, 10:56 AM
#1846
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22-01-2016, 04:28 PM
#1847
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26-01-2016, 08:59 AM
#1848
Maccas qtr result out last night with a surprise upside compared to consensus. Cramer is talking here: http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000488550 about new tech being used in drive through in Australia and hinting that the new tech rollouts (VMob having an effect but behind the scenes?) will improve earnings. I am wondering if this is an under the radar trial. Watching with interest...
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26-01-2016, 09:41 AM
#1849
Originally Posted by Schrodinger
Maccas qtr result out last night with a surprise upside compared to consensus. Cramer is talking here: http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000488550 about new tech being used in drive through in Australia and hinting that the new tech rollouts (VMob having an effect but behind the scenes?) will improve earnings. I am wondering if this is an under the radar trial. Watching with interest...
Good to see Cramer making such explicit reference to 'technology' as part of the McD's global turnaround.
McD's in November provided an update on their turnaround plan; "we are gaining momentum by focusing on our customers and what matters most to them - hot and fresh food, fast and friendly service, and a contemporary restaurant experience" http://news.mcdonalds.com/Corporate/...urnaround-Plan ... similar phrases have been uttered by VMob
In today's Jan 25 announcement of Fourth Quarter And Full Year 2015 Results, there is the tantalising reference to "Generating sustained, positive guest traffic remains a top priority for the segment" which is the sweet spot for VMob to contribute. http://news.mcdonalds.com/Corporate/...d-Full-Year-20 There may be more about this in the 4Q '15 Earnings Conference Call Webcast http://www.aboutmcdonalds.com/mcd/in...5_webcast.html
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26-01-2016, 11:24 AM
#1850
Exciting post for us holders - thanks Baa Baa!
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