Dow

[Daytr]

Was a little premature by looks, lucky I had a trailing stop.
Stopped out for a profit and now back short at original re-entry point.

[Hoop]

@Hoop, would you be able to post your DJIA chart with the Fibs?
TIA

p.s. Twiggs analysis today is "has now broken primary support at 16000, signaling a primary down-trend. Reversal of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero, indicating selling pressure, strengthens the warning. Target for the decline is 14000*."

Target calculation: 16000 - ( 18000 - 16000 ) = 14000

Looking at Colin Twiggs weekly chart with his Primary Support at the 16000 area it is a fuzzy area as the candlestick tails pass below it ..I think I prefer my version 15500 (biased)..With hindsight I prefer it even more now as it does not show that 16000 as a primary "false" break...

The DOW does show major respect for my Primary Support version (15500)...and failing to go lower then breaking back through 16000 again smells like a start to the next rally to me

After a panic drop... trading behaviour is reduced to basic animal instincts and a mad scramble from scavengers to pick up the pieces and look for a quick buck ...that's where Fibonacci analysis becomes a good tool to show resistance areas..(see chart below)

The main objective during a rally within a bearish tide is to be very alert around resistance areas, especially conjunction areas...so not to be caught as a sucker.....Its irrespective if you think its just a severe Bull market correction or not...just treat this rally play as cautious management...

Spooky!!!.....there are close conjunctions (S&R Lines) around both 38.2% and 61.8% Fibs..

Edit:.....I've added Copper price as this is an important duck....It's not revelvant at the moment and may not be for a while ......but in the future if Copper ends its Bear cycle it is an leading indicator that Equity Market will end it's Bear cycle about 6 weeks later

[Daytr]

I don't think the Central banks are going to get the same bang for their stimulus buck as previously & although the ECB talk has created this bounce there are now other issues in play, particularly oil and the impact not only in regards that sector, ie a looming debt crisis but also the economies that rely heavily on oil to fund their budgets.

[Daytr]

Oil getting smashed again, Dow trading in sympathy. Bounce may be done.

[Hoop]

Oil getting smashed again, Dow trading in sympathy. Bounce may be done.

You could be right Daytr...an ugly finish today at 15885 slipping back under the 16000 support again kinda kills my sucker rally scenario.... a dead cat bounce it seems...that's not a good sign for the remaining bulls..

[Hoop]

You could be right Daytr...an ugly finish today at 15885 slipping back under the 16000 support again kinda kills my sucker rally scenario.... a dead cat bounce it seems...that's not a good sign for the remaining bulls..

Maybe not right Daytr.....Hmmm...DOW currently 16150 ..It seems the 16000 S&R level doesn't exist atm...with multiple breaking there's now doubt in the argument the 16000 is a primary line

I'll will continue to assume the 15500 (intraday lows) as the primary line I may change my mind to using the DOW Method has a good argument.. the rally yesterday's throwback tested 15800ish region is proving valid.


I'll keep the Fibs analysis off the intraday lows...The DOW theorists use 15700/15800 (closing day lows)...In either case today's move up is a confirmation that the correction (rally) is still in play and likely to test the 38.2% Fib at 16400.

The previous chart I showed the DUCK (copper)...An expansion of this duck is charted below...

[frostyboy]

The 2009 bottom in the SPX was lead by commodities


Commodities haven't put in a similar bottom

[Daytr]

The market has been talking up the Fed doing a back flip tonight. I think there is a reasonable chance the market is disappointed. I'm not suggesting they will raise rates tonight, but I think they will maintain their policy statement. Yellen wound back QE and has signaled she wants to normalize rates & despite some pain in the long term I think she is right to do so. The market had a free put under Bernanke that created bubbles in equities & bonds,a dangerous combination & risk has been mispriced. Unless we see oil turn, then I think we carry on down.
Even Apple is starting to lose its glamour status.

[Hoop]

The market has been talking up the Fed doing a back flip tonight. I think there is a reasonable chance the market is disappointed. I'm not suggesting they will raise rates tonight, but I think they will maintain their policy statement. Yellen wound back QE and has signaled she wants to normalize rates & despite some pain in the long term I think she is right to do so. The market had a free put under Bernanke that created bubbles in equities & bonds,a dangerous combination & risk has been mispriced. Unless we see oil turn, then I think we carry on down.
Even Apple is starting to lose its glamour status.

Lets see how this 16000 area pans out today..

EDIT:...DOW closed at 15944 -223 -1.38% Nah!! ...16000 failed to show any real resistance with the late in the day fall..I'm going to dismiss the 16000 as being a primary S&R area so no Bear market confirmation at this 16000 level..a bounce off 15878 is one tiny victory for the DOW Theorists.

[Hoop]

The 2009 bottom in the SPX was lead by commodities


Commodities haven't put in a similar bottom

Yes agree..there's no copper bottoming out yet...My point of the post was that Copper may have further to fall as the DOW bear market is not yet official... As copper which is already abnormally weak with its prolonged down trend for this stage of events (usually peaking and falling) it opens up a predicting scenario that if an Equity Bear market cycle is established it has to be sooner rather than later (time restriction due to the severity and prolonged Coppers current downtrend)...... Copper trend often reverses outside an Equity Bear market without correlation..but a reversal inside an Equity Bear Market cycle is highly correlated...so...if this scenario pans out, early to mid 2016 will be bad news for Copper..

With a possible Bear Market cycle operating it is time to do some revelant reading... Russell Napier's Anatomy of the Bear is a must read
See my post #133 on Winner69's Investing Strategies and Secular Bear Market thread


Your chart shows JJC which is a copper thingy...notice the signal some 6 weeks before the Equity upturn...(has happened every time)
USO is an Oil thingy Oil It does not correlate well on it's own but grouped within a basket of other commodities it correlates much better...Unfortunately many commentators use only one event data set (as above) as a logical (false) argument which shows correlation but a quick google (my personal lack of time and any chart will do) brings up this not so good example but will do for now chart.. notice the more confusing signaling correlation during the 2001-2003 recession and Equity Bear...