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14-04-2016, 10:26 AM
#2621
Originally Posted by Roger
Fair enough mate. You're much closer to the coal face than I am so I totally respect what you have to say BUT perhaps worth noting that Julian Cook did look supremely confident of his new 400 build rate target in that video the other day (plus 100 care beds) and they've never missed a build rate target before. I guess you could say the same about RYM's 15% underlying profit growth target, they're certainly the company with the longer track record and its a superb one, more than happy to concede that.
P(RYM underlying earnings >=15%) < P(SUM build rate >=400)
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14-04-2016, 10:26 AM
#2622
I think the point I'm trying to make Roger is that if either company is either perceived to be going to miss it's build target/profit growth target or actually does then either companies share price will take a hit, it's not one company above the other in that respect. As an aside Sum would do itself a service if it stopped reporting quarter metrics as it does tend to paint the wrong picture of sales at times and puts it on the back foot in some ways.
Last edited by couta1; 14-04-2016 at 10:33 AM.
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14-04-2016, 10:32 AM
#2623
Originally Posted by couta1
I think the point I'm trying to make Roger is that if either company is either perceived to be going to miss it's build target or actually does then either companies share price will take a hit, it's not one company above the other in that respect. As an aside Sum would do itself a service if it stopped reporting quarter metrics as it does tend to paint the wrong picture of sales at times and puts it on the back foot in some ways.
ha! I think the quarterly metrics are great. They provide regular opportunities for well-informed investors like us to capitalise on the wavering sentiment of the ill-informed....
Last edited by OldGuy; 14-04-2016 at 10:38 AM.
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14-04-2016, 10:41 AM
#2624
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14-04-2016, 10:43 AM
#2625
Originally Posted by OldGuy
ha! I think the quarterly metrics are great. They provide regular opportunities for well-informed investors like us to capitalise on the wavering sentiment of the ill-informed....
Well put.!!
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14-04-2016, 08:33 PM
#2626
Originally Posted by OldGuy
If that's the case, aren't you slightly suspicious why they are suddenly announcing the opening of new villages???
But they haven't announced anything about opening a new village (well I can't find any) and this is consistant with at least the last 5 years. So no suspicion at all.
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14-04-2016, 09:52 PM
#2627
Originally Posted by OldGuy
P(RYM underlying earnings >=15%) < P(SUM build rate >=400)
SUM's the situation up very succinctly.
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15-04-2016, 02:18 AM
#2628
Originally Posted by OldGuy
P(RYM underlying earnings >=15%) < P(SUM build rate >=400)
If P(RYM underlying earnings >=15%) <= P(SUM build rate >=400) then P(SUM build rate >=400) = 1
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15-04-2016, 08:54 AM
#2629
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15-04-2016, 09:19 AM
#2630
Originally Posted by Vaygor1
If P(RYM underlying earnings >=15%) <= P(SUM build rate >=400) then P(SUM build rate >=400) = 1
which implies that P(RYM underlying earnings >=15%) = 1 - delta, where delta is sufficiently small as to be deemed near zero?
Nah.
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