Just to clarify my position - my value of $6.25 is at 31 March 2017. I've been careful in calculating what I expect this FY revenues to be and how that will filter down to the bottom line. Trilogy is currently the highest margin, then CS&Co followed by ecoya. I prefer not to try to estimate earnings too far out as I see it as a dark art. Suffice to say I see FY17 as estimateable and I'm happy that the growth trajectory will still have legs to continue beyond FY17 (at which point I'll roll forward my estimates). I know the growth needs to continue to deem my method relevant. If I thought growth would fall off a cliff or was unsustainable I would not be applying this technique.
I am estimating what I think the market will reasonably pay on 31 March 2017 and investing accordingly.
Many will see my method as over simplistic and that's fine. I consider many other factors as well. In my other life as a structural engineer there is a saying "earthquakes don't care how fancy your model/analysis is" and it's something that rings true with me for the stock market (and other parts of life) as well. I mean no disrespect to other ways of doing things. I'm glad we can have a robust discussion and share our assessment of things!
Good to see our black boxes have come out at a similar FY17 eps winner. Mr market hasn't been able to come up with the same over the weekend though by the looks.
I wonder when the first broker report will be in. Any ideas?
50% growth each year for 3 years = a EPS of 50c in three years correct?
Edit: Numbers
current eps 15c
1 year @ 50% growth = 22.5c
2 years = 33.75c
3 years = 50.6c
Edit 2: More numbers
Revenue growing by 50% each year for 3 years = 280m revenue in three years. I'd be smiling at that
This is very optimistic. Next year 50% is easy because F16 only counted 7.5 month of CS.
but i don't think Trilogy can maintain this high growth in F18 and F19. It's more like 20~30% growth rate.
This is very optimistic. Next year 50% is easy because F16 only counted 7.5 month of CS.
but i don't think Trilogy can maintain this high growth in F18 and F19. It's more like 20~30% growth rate.
Just to explain my position, I wasn't suggesting that the 50% figure is sustainable, was simply running silverblizzards numbers
Base Case is $5.09 now - implying $5.90 in a years time
I'll refer to that in future (The $3,83 case if high growth isn't sustained post F17)
Hi W69,I meant the $3.95 yesterdays closing price,not your projections.I should have implied seems undervalued at yesterdays closing price of $3.95 given its potential growth.
Someone throwing away money at 385 this morning it would seem. One has to wonder when the first broker report based on the most recent presentation is released.
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