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03-09-2016, 02:40 PM
#1751
Good post there hoop
Also came across this
@dailydirtnap: John Bogle is 87. Will he live long enough to see the index bubble burst?
(Bogle is founder of Vanguard and champion of index funds)
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
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03-09-2016, 06:17 PM
#1752
Originally Posted by Hoop
Amazingly... the US media hyped up this announcement all week expecting numbers of 180,000...once it was released it was quickly removed from the limelight and buried into the back pages....I guess the Media is in a period of Presidential good news and happiness at the moment..who wants to limelight 151,000 bits of bad news..eh.
Meanwhile, Wall St seated at the Mad Hatters tea party table is partying on knowing that the Queen of Hearts will now be reluctant to move on interest rates....."more tea anyone? "
There's been a lot of fuss about non-payroll data over recent years as commentators use it as one guideline to how the FED will react..
Below is a very long term chart which cancels out the media noise and shows the true facts and trends over the last 75 years.
The chart shows the recent period (since 2008) of slightly less growth which is compensated by the extra length of time between contractions..
Also noticeable is less volatility for longer periods between contractions since the 1960's..and especially so, since the mid 1980's...Viewing this recent run on the chart, Is the current low volatile run due to end soon?
Referring back to the September 2 non payroll data. Employment continued to trend up in several service-providing industries while it declined in manufacturing, mining and construction.
I'm personally trending towards primary sector investing atm so this mining data result is not a good result for me
Thanks Hoop
Personally I'm cashing out of illiquid unlisted investments as good offers have come in from other investors who are looking for value and yearly returns.Suits me to grab it while its there.Paying down OD and also trending to primary sector for further investment
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03-09-2016, 08:07 PM
#1753
Originally Posted by winner69
Good post there hoop
Also came across this
@dailydirtnap: John Bogle is 87. Will he live long enough to see the index bubble burst?
(Bogle is founder of Vanguard and champion of index funds)
Yeah..John Bogle one of the greats..
I like reading the 10th Man guy's posts (Jared Dillian)..what a very intelligent, verbally colorful character with a street fighter personality...I suppose him being an ex ETF trader, John Bogle would spring into his mind every now and again..
Kiora.. do you read his articles??
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03-09-2016, 08:20 PM
#1754
Originally Posted by Hoop
Yeah..John Bogle one of the greats..
I like reading the 10th Man guy's posts (Jared Dillian)..what a very intelligent, verbally colorful character with a street fighter personality...I suppose him being an ex ETF trader, John Bogle would spring into his mind every now and again..
Kiora.. do you read his articles??
Yes, they are very good
Might buy his book just released All The Evil Of This World - is a novel but probably a true story of sorts
.
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
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04-09-2016, 12:56 AM
#1755
Originally Posted by Hoop
Yeah..John Bogle one of the greats..
I like reading the 10th Man guy's posts (Jared Dillian)..what a very intelligent, verbally colorful character with a street fighter personality...I suppose him being an ex ETF trader, John Bogle would spring into his mind every now and again..
Kiora.. do you read his articles??
No interesting but I haven't heard of him before.I'll do a bit of investigation thanks W69. Commentators I follow primarily Colin Twiggs, Craigs(very little reliance) , 4 traders for brokers perspective and sharetrader for entertainment ,investor sentiment with a dash of knowledge
PT gets my vote for entertainer of the forum.I bet he gets as much fun posting as I get trying to decipher his posts
Last edited by kiora; 04-09-2016 at 01:05 AM.
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05-09-2016, 08:43 AM
#1756
Janet was never going to do anything before the elections to upset the markets.
She done a fantastic job in keeping things chugging along nicely - they will be pleased
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
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05-09-2016, 10:35 AM
#1757
Originally Posted by winner69
Janet was never going to do anything before the elections to upset the markets.
She done a fantastic job in keeping things chugging along nicely - they will be pleased
Yep she has...
Actually looking back with hindsight...back in 2007 with Uncle Ben,,,talk about "Johnny on the Spot", having a leading Authority of Economic Depressions heading the FED.....One can only imagine what could have happened to the No1 ecomony of the World if the Brain Trusts did not burn the midnight oil for weeks on end dreaming up new "outside the square" untested monetary tools to fight the GFC...
Prolong Depression???...we will never know but with an assumption that Monetary tools smooths out the extremes ...the period since the GFC being one of extreme easing and only managing to achieve chronic low growth with near 0% inflation, we could assume the USA without Uncle Ben and Aunty Janet might have been one doosy economic decline..probably powerful enough to prematurely kill off that DOW (S&P) Secular Bear as it did in 1930
Last edited by Hoop; 05-09-2016 at 10:42 AM.
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05-09-2016, 10:46 AM
#1758
Originally Posted by Hoop
Yep she has...
Actually looking back with hindsight...back in 2007 with Uncle Ben,,,talk about "Johnny on the Spot", having a leading Authority of Economic Depressions heading the FED.....One can only imagine what could have happened to the No1 ecomony of the World if the Brain Trusts did not burn the midnight oil for weeks on end dreaming up new "outside the square" untested monetary tools to fight the GFC...
Prolong Depression???...we will never know but with an assumption that Monetary tools smooths out the extremes ...the period since the GFC being one of extreme easing and only managing to achieve chronic low growth with near 0% inflation, we could assume the USA without Uncle Ben and Aunty Janet might have been one doosy economic decline..probably powerful enough to prematurely kill off that DOW (S&P) Secular Bear as it did in 1930
No cuts before election - 100% certain. Never were going to be
Yes - what happens post election will be interesting
Esp if Hilary loses it as they deserves to
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
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05-09-2016, 11:35 AM
#1759
The Democrats put up a publically disliked candidate and the Republicans said we can match that and do one better....so now there a 2 publically disliked candidates...About as irrational as their sharemarket...What's going on over there??
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05-09-2016, 11:45 AM
#1760
Originally Posted by Hoop
The Democrats put up a publically disliked candidate and the Republicans said we can match that and do one better....so now there a 2 publically disliked candidates...About as irrational as their sharemarket...What's going on over there??
.....and the favoured one is more crooked?
You'd love this short video about Janet
https://app.hedgeye.com/insights/535...estors-told-me
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
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