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24-09-2016, 11:35 PM
#9021
It's amusing that all the pessimists are out with a touch of glee currently while the cheerleaders are silent...people need to understand market sentiment and the actual underlying company can have a disconnect. While there is tourism growth, limited domestic competition, domestic fares will hold up underlying earnings for the dividend and currently like hotel tariffs, we will all pay more that. That is a different issue to share price and capital preservation, been out for a while and wonder what all the fuss is about.
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25-09-2016, 03:42 AM
#9022
Keeping the horizon level and centered
Certainly a bit weird when I seem to be the thread optimist.
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
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25-09-2016, 08:59 AM
#9023
Originally Posted by Paper Tiger
Certainly a bit weird when I seem to be the thread optimist.
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
lol ,it would be nice if the thread optimists who have apparently gone bush would man up and tell us there plan now that things have gone astray.
anyway I own air as part of my diversified portfolio so I not worried about falling share price as overall my portfolio is still up. I sense the bush walkers may have too much on this one share which would be a bad mistake to put all there eggs on one share
one step ahead of the herd
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25-09-2016, 09:10 AM
#9024
Remember HBL when it went down to 1.09.people thought it was the end of the world...so many critics...now look at HBL....it does the same with AIR....
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25-09-2016, 09:38 AM
#9025
Originally Posted by bull....
lol ,it would be nice if the thread optimists who have apparently gone bush would man up and tell us there plan now that things have gone astray.
anyway I own air as part of my diversified portfolio so I not worried about falling share price as overall my portfolio is still up. I sense the bush walkers may have too much on this one share which would be a bad mistake to put all there eggs on one share
I like bush walks. Have walked lots of Waitakere rangers walks.But getting back to AIR. This reminds me of last time when I started buying in.....2011-2012. Bought 17 blocks of AIR from $1.13down to .845c. The diff. is we are $1 higher than that now, so you have to work out how much better off AIR is now than what it was then. one diff. is back then it was paying 5.5c div. and now it is paying 20c div. not to mention new planes etc. If it's a $1 better off then we could be near the new bottom now. But what do I know, I'm just the boot polisher. But am still working through my plan B and will begin plan C in the near future. Now for a walk in the rain.
Last edited by see weed; 25-09-2016 at 09:57 AM.
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25-09-2016, 10:31 AM
#9026
Originally Posted by Raz
It's amusing that all the pessimists are out with a touch of glee currently while the cheerleaders are silent...people need to understand market sentiment and the actual underlying company can have a disconnect. While there is tourism growth, limited domestic competition, domestic fares will hold up underlying earnings for the dividend and currently like hotel tariffs, we will all pay more that. That is a different issue to share price and capital preservation, been out for a while and wonder what all the fuss is about.
Yes indeed as you said Raz - people need to understand market sentiment and the actual underlying company can have a disconnect
Especially with cyclicals such as airlines - company fundamentals mean squat all with these type of stocks, AIR's share price is following what some see as typical cyclical behaviour
AIR is a brilliant company, it's leader may even have a glowing halo. AIR made $800m last year and will make over $500m this year and probably much the same the year after - and pay at least 20 cents dividend.
But that dividend may not always be reflected in the share price
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
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25-09-2016, 11:10 AM
#9027
Originally Posted by King1212
Remember HBL when it went down to 1.09.people thought it was the end of the world...so many critics...now look at HBL....it does the same with AIR....
No question about that ... this is exactly what cyclical stocks are about. They go up and down and up and down again. I don't think anybody suggested that the current downtrend is the end of the world for AIR - it was more about whether it is wise to hold (or accumulate) a cyclical stock in the early (or medium) phases of a downtrend. Obviously - we might disagree on whether this is the start or already the end of the downtrend, but picking bottoms is something wiser people than me are getting wrong, so I better not attempt this discipline ...
So yes, everybody relax ... AIR is highly likely to go up again at some stage. The question is just when, and ... when it does ... wouldn't it have made more sense to own the same AIR shares bought cheap instead of still holding them purchased dear?
Shares are a bit like seats in a plane. You can pay lots for an AIR flight from CHC to AKL, or you can pay less for the same seat in the same plane on the same flight (if you get the timing right). Both seats will get you at the same time and with the same comfort (or lack thereof) to your destination. I personally prefer to buy them when they are on special (and - back to shares enjoy the same dividend than the people who paid lots), but this is just me.
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"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)
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25-09-2016, 11:31 AM
#9028
Originally Posted by see weed
I like bush walks. Have walked lots of Waitakere rangers walks.But getting back to AIR. This reminds me of last time when I started buying in.....2011-2012. Bought 17 blocks of AIR from $1.13down to .845c. The diff. is we are $1 higher than that now, so you have to work out how much better off AIR is now than what it was then. one diff. is back then it was paying 5.5c div. and now it is paying 20c div. not to mention new planes etc. If it's a $1 better off then we could be near the new bottom now. But what do I know, I'm just the boot polisher. But am still working through my plan B and will begin plan C in the near future. Now for a walk in the rain.
I think the jury may be still out on whether you can factor in the dividend as a reason to buy.I think from what we have seen so far is that the concept of ''free money'' is not one that can be assumed, as the dividend does affect the company's value(more on the TA thread)
I have my own pet theory that ,until the next results from AIR,the market is still in the ''post dividend'' frame of mind---buyers may want to buy the share-but not pay for what is sitting in the sellers bank----seller wants to sell -and keep what is in his bank---in between is the SP---the AIR results may change the atmosphere according to what they are(provided the ''post dividend'' market has not gathered enough momentum to become a factor in itself)------of course,as always,outside markets remain a wild card.
Last edited by skid; 25-09-2016 at 11:32 AM.
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25-09-2016, 11:42 AM
#9029
Originally Posted by winner69
Yes indeed as you said Raz - people need to understand market sentiment and the actual underlying company can have a disconnect
Especially with cyclicals such as airlines - company fundamentals mean squat all with these type of stocks, AIR's share price is following what some see as typical cyclical behaviour
AIR is a brilliant company, it's leader may even have a glowing halo. AIR made $800m last year and will make over $500m this year and probably much the same the year after - and pay at least 20 cents dividend.
But that dividend may not always be reflected in the share price
I still don't get it why anybody could think the 20 cent dividend in perpetuity is a given? It is a promise by woefully overpaid executives who sold down their own shares. This gives you an idea how much they think their promises are worth. So yes - AIR may or may not pay for the years to come 20 cents dividend.
How likely do you think it is they can keep their promises with rapidly diminishing margins in the airline industry? 50%? 20% NIL? As soon as you accept it is not 100% (and nothing in life is but death and taxes) it is easy to see how much (or how little) the market trusts in the promises.
FY 2017 ... they say they make 500m ... and given that we are well into the period, lets assume the promised divvie is (sort of) safe. Obviously - we still can have another 9/11 somewhere on this globe or another Saars outbreak, or Trump might win the US election ...
What about FY 2018? Competition is still increasing, margins dropping and oil might not stay low forever. Can they still pay the divvie?
What about 2019? Tourism won't boom forever, oil might be dear and president Trump together with his old friends Vladimir Putin and the dear leader of North Korea are shooting down all alien planes over their (rapidly increasing) territory, using US generals as projectiles (just an example, lets not get into that ...). Is AIR still able to pay the divvie?
No matter what happens, it is quite safe to assume that they won't be able to pay a 20 cent divvie in perpetuity. Mr and Mrs Market seem to agree.
----
"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)
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25-09-2016, 01:42 PM
#9030
Hi Black Peter
I take it from your recent posts you are not going to buy any AIR shares in the foreseeable future
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
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