Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
Is this announcement good or bad?
https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/245046.pdf


Share price nothing to write home about at the moment

Worth while having a closer look at? Might be really cheap?
Well, I sold out some time ago after management did that as well ... and was proven quite right in doing so;

I think key is the following sentence:
with the Established Market ahead of expectations and the Commercial Market behind expectations.
Just try to decipher the announcement based on my fading memories of this company - they had already a quite good stand in NZ and ok-ish in Australia ("the established" market) and seem to have made some more progress in that (which is good). However - the "pie in the sky" is the US market (which they call for some reasons "Commercial Market"). Given that they used to pump millions into this market are 800 more subscribers in a market 100 times the size of NZ not overwhelming. Looks like progress in the US is slower than they wished for ... and they really need the US to grow to make their plans reality.

The other thing is ... analysts (no doubt based on company data) predicted a forward CAGR of above 60%. If their growth in the first half was only 18% (I know, its a crude measure, given that they just indicate the growth in contracted units, which is not all of their business), than they need to hurry up to reach the above 60% for the full year).

So - on a first impression and without lots of analysis would I say, it is great that they start reporting on some measures. They might have as well enough revenue to not require another CR (obviously depending on how much they currently pour into the US) ... but the numbers are likely to underwhelm the markets.

By all means - look into the company, but I don't think there is a rush to buy - though spec stocks can obviously bounce all around the place without a good reason.

Overall - I think it is an interesting company ... and they are on Chris Lee's radar as well (though not sure, whether he puts them at current into the "good" or the "not sure" basket). However - management sort of inexperienced with running a public company - and I was annoyed when management sold their shares prior to announcing a quite significant profit downgrade (obviously clever, but leaves a sour taste in the mouth)

DYOR;

Discl: don't hold;