Black Monday

[BlackPeter]

...
Do not think there will be trouble though if Trump loses... what kind of trouble to you envisage Skid?

Maybe this kind of trouble?

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016...alarms-n667831

Historians say Trump's sustained effort to call the process into question has no close parallel in past elections. And some are increasingly worried that his claims — for which he's offered no real evidence — could leave many of his supporters unwilling to accept the election results, potentially triggering violence and dangerously undermining faith in American democracy.

"We're going to have a revolution and take them out of office if that's what it takes" if Clinton wins, a Trump backer told The Boston Globe at a rally in Ohio. "There's going to be a lot of bloodshed. But that's what it's going to take."

Last week, two armed Virginia men supporting Trump stood for hours outside a Democratic campaign office to "protest" Clinton. The action was legal, but it appeared designed to intimidate.

[xafalcon]

The bookies give Clinton a 82% chance of winning and Trump a 15.6% chance, so it looks likely that it will be a Clinton win. Do not think there will be trouble though if Trump loses... what kind of trouble to you envisage Skid?

Just wondering if those are the same bookies that predicted Bremain was 3:1 favourite

Polling is meaningless unless the sample set is representative of the voters who turn out on the day.

And in the US, the presidential election result rests on the voters in about 5 "swing states".

[Beagle]

Wonder is 6500 on the cards for the NZX50 ?

[Beagle]

Well if the market doesn't get a lift today from Wall St then I think my theory of a good 10-15% correction looks likely to happen.

[skid]

Well if the market doesn't get a lift today from Wall St then I think my theory of a good 10-15% correction looks likely to happen.

Kiwi down -Oz up

[arc]

Well if the market doesn't get a lift today from Wall St then I think my theory of a good 10-15% correction looks likely to happen.

Indeed

The market seems to be paused today..?. catching its breath for ??


When the boy runs out of fingers to plug the developing holes in the dyke, then downstream looks increasingly hazardous to me.

[skid]

They are starting to make some relatively strong hints about raising the interest rate (Fed) The market may well spit the dummy on that one---wouldnt be a nice Christmas prezzy

[Beagle]

Well I reckon a pathetic 3 point gain on the back of a 7.9% correction since early September and a reasonably strong DOW overnight is a sign this correction is not done and dusted yet by any stretch of the imagination. 10-15% correction still my base case assumption in the short term, just over half done already, (he says rather hopefully).

[Baa_Baa]

Day by day, it's feeling worse and worse, and all the daily chart indicators are pointing down though approaching oversold. However that micro daily view needs some perspective imho.

Stepping back and taking a look at the monthly chart (log scale), with simple 2 Standard Deviation channel drawn (of the entire uptrend) and still above the 10 month MA (approximates a 200 day MA), NZX is still in a very strong uptrend.

A drop through that 10 month MA and the steep rising trend line line (green), if it happened, would be cause for some concern about the up trend, and the 5,580 level appears to offer some backstop support. It's uncanny how the Fibonacci retracements land right on those supports, and even the May-Oct 2007 highs are smack on the Fib 61.8%. Spooky how those Fibs work.

Attachment 8384

[littletramp]

Can I throw this out there and ask for comment or opinion. Are the Kiwisaver "fixed interest rate" managed funds tied to an index in some way to measure contributors account holding? Do these work like bonds where as interest rates/yields fall the bond value increases? If so, are there potentially going to be some very disappointed wage earners in the future, who have been advised or chosen to stick with a so called conservative saving plan, only to find that should interest rates start to rise in the future they experience a degree and possibly significant amount of capital value loss?

Here is a link to an article that discusses the issue I see as potentially concerning for Kiwisaver investors in Bond accounts thinking they are conservative. I understand the comments that there is no capital loss if the investment is held to maturity, but if the saver withdraws from the fund before maturity of the bonds as most will do, there may be significant loss of capital. There is also "inflation loss" if interest rates move higher and you are sitting at a lower rate. There is real potential that when you want your money out at 65, there is less in your account than you put in. Happy to be proven wrong on this.

http://www.businessinsider.com.au/he...-rates-2016-10