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04-01-2017, 01:11 PM
#8411
Originally Posted by winner69
No point in doing that percy - only a modest correlation between dairy prices and NZD:USD cross.
What surprises most people is that there is no correlation between dairy prices and GDP growth (actually slightly negative)
What happens to dairy prices (ie farm incomes) doesn't really impact the economy ...... but spookily seems to impact the HBL share price
I live and learn.
Always thought NZ $ followed dairy prices as dairying made up approx 24% of NZ exports.Dairy prices drop, NZ$ drops.Dairy prices rise. NZ $ rises.
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04-01-2017, 01:28 PM
#8412
TSB Bank, (credit rating A-) in the market offering 3.75% for 9 month money, (thinking of depositing one of my bones with them), "trumping", (I dislike that word now for some strange reason), HBL's, (credit rating BBB) former market leading offer. HBL to trump TSB bank tomorrow and offer 3.8-3.9% ? I know these sort of deposit rates bore most people to tears, and fully understand why but the fact remains that the term deposit space is getting more competitive. Just as well HBL have the best net interest margins in the banking industry by miles.
Last edited by Beagle; 04-01-2017 at 01:30 PM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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04-01-2017, 02:07 PM
#8413
Originally Posted by percy
I live and learn.
Always thought NZ $ followed dairy prices as dairying made up approx 24% of NZ exports.Dairy prices drop, NZ$ drops.Dairy prices rise. NZ $ rises.
You in good company percy - Reserve Bank Governer Wheeler seems to think so as well. One of the reasons he has got things wrong lately.
Since 2013 there's actually been a moderately negative correlation between changes in the NZD and changes in dairy prices - interesting eh
”When investors are euphoric, they are incapable of recognising euphoria itself “
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04-01-2017, 02:09 PM
#8414
HBL share price down today - on a day when NZX seems to be doing well
Hope it recovers by 5pm
”When investors are euphoric, they are incapable of recognising euphoria itself “
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04-01-2017, 02:17 PM
#8415
Originally Posted by winner69
HBL share price down today - on a day when NZX seems to be doing well
Hope it recovers by 5pm
No wories.
It's already recovered from its 'blip'... everyone to busy buying Arvida you think? (another "growth + dividend" company)
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04-01-2017, 05:28 PM
#8416
Originally Posted by winner69
HBL share price down today - on a day when NZX seems to be doing well
Hope it recovers by 5pm
And so it came to pass, HBL's share price ended the day up 0.7%.
Considering there is a SPP coming up in February ,today's $1.51 finish is rather pleasing.
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11-01-2017, 10:19 AM
#8417
Hey percy, UDC sold 1.6 times book value
Heartland trading close to that at the moment .....hmmm
Last edited by winner69; 11-01-2017 at 11:06 AM.
”When investors are euphoric, they are incapable of recognising euphoria itself “
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11-01-2017, 11:03 AM
#8418
Originally Posted by Roger
What PE multiple was it sold at mate ?
Lazy hound decided to dig it out himself http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU161...net-profit.htm
$58.5m, solf for $660m = historical FY16 PE of only 11.2 (UDC a very good business with a very long track record).
Heartland trading at $1.50 of a forecast FY17 forward PE of 12.5 ! (assuming 12.0 cps earnings), mid point of forecast range.
Conclusion - Heartland fully priced at the current level.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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11-01-2017, 11:04 AM
#8419
Originally Posted by Roger
What PE multiple was it sold at mate ?
Looks like 11.1 times 2016 NPAT from numbers on ANZ fact sheet
”When investors are euphoric, they are incapable of recognising euphoria itself “
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11-01-2017, 11:05 AM
#8420
Originally Posted by winner69
Hey percy, UDC sold 1.6 times net assets
Heartland trading close to that at the moment .....hmmm
hmmmmmmmmmmm,yes.
I think $660 mil is a good price for ANZ to have received.
Will be interesting comparing the growth UDC, under Chinese ownership,achieves, against Heartland's over the next year or two.
I would think "momentum" is on Heartland's side,therefore Heartland would appear to be either "fair" value or slightly undervalued,going on just times net assets.
A year ago, the acquisition of UDC and/or MTF seemed to be te only way Heartland would achieve growth.
This has been proved incorrect,as Heartland have achieved very strong organic growth.This very strong growth is set to continue, as Heartland's strategy of digital products delivered online gains more traction.
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