IFT - Infratil

[Xerof]

Huxley, you were also being conservative with your $500 mill to invest comment. It's actually $501 mill

[BlackPeter]

I was being flippant for sure, however the half year overview states the company has "over $500 million of cash and undrawn bank facilities remain on hand"

I wasn't implying they had this amount in cash.

At some stage I need to find a real up to date balance sheet, not just these colour printed investor presentations where they obviously only present what they want to.

But - OK, so they have half of this (246m) as undrawn credit line (as mentioned earlier) and the reminder (255m) is cash which belongs to their "100% subsidiaries" (actually not sure, who this is - It thought that they need to integrate the balance sheets of all majority owned assets (i.e. more than 50% instead of just 100%) - can any of the resident accountants confirm that?

Whatsoever ... it is cash which their subsidiaries might need to stay in business ... not really a heap of cash for IFT to invest as they desire.

A bit lazy here ... but according to Reuters was the NTA in July 2016 (probably based on their March 2016 balance sheet) $3.45. Didn't they still sell some stuff after that date? Anyway - lots of things changed since than, and while MET still went up a bit (and then down again), TPW (their largest holding) lost significant in value. But yes, NTA still might be above the SP (which could convince people to buy in), but I am not convinced that this is enough for a huge recovery.

Will be interesting to see this years financials ....

[winner69]

At some stage I need to find a real up to date balance sheet, not just these colour printed investor presentations where they obviously only present what they want to.

But - OK, so they have half of this (246m) as undrawn credit line (as mentioned earlier) and the reminder (255m) is cash which belongs to their "100% subsidiaries" (actually not sure, who this is - It thought that they need to integrate the balance sheets of all majority owned assets (i.e. more than 50% instead of just 100%) - can any of the resident accountants confirm that?

Whatsoever ... it is cash which their subsidiaries might need to stay in business ... not really a heap of cash for IFT to invest as they desire.

A bit lazy here ... but according to Reuters was the NTA in July 2016 (probably based on their March 2016 balance sheet) $3.45. Didn't they still sell some stuff after that date? Anyway - lots of things changed since than, and while MET still went up a bit (and then down again), TPW (their largest holding) lost significant in value. But yes, NTA still might be above the SP (which could convince people to buy in), but I am not convinced that this is enough for a huge recovery.

Will be interesting to see this years financials ....

The last real up to date balance sheet was published 1/2 year accounts 30 Sept

NTA per share noted at $3.00

[BlackPeter]

The last real up to date balance sheet was published 1/2 year accounts 30 Sept

NTA per share noted at $3.00

Thanks for that. Given that the big TPW/TLT drop started after this date - and MET also used this period to lose in value is it fair to assume that their NTA is lower today. Maybe down another 45 cents? Begs the question - how much premium is the IFT brand worth? Most investment funds command a discount.

[winner69]

Share buy back 500,000 at 281

Must be thinking they better resume the buyback before the price goes over 300

[BlackPeter]

Share buy back 500,000 at 281

Must be thinking they better resume the buyback before the price goes over 300

The buyback might have been the reason slowing down the SP drop. Sort of sad if an investment fund does not see a better use of their shareholders money than buying the own stock.

Continues to be in a technical downtrend ... and share buy backs are never a sustainable fix for weak fundamentals.

[JeremyALD]

The buyback might have been the reason slowing down the SP drop. Sort of sad if an investment fund does not see a better use of their shareholders money than buying the own stock.

Continues to be in a technical downtrend ... and share buy backs are never a sustainable fix for weak fundamentals.

You seem to forget this share was over $3 for the majority of 2016 and really not much has changed fundamental wise since this. Although they are now forecasting the bottom year of guidance, they still hit their target and their dividend has grown consecutively for a very long time. They were also on track with their forecasted dividend.

I don't share your doom and gloom on this one, but we shall see

[couta1]

You seem to forget this share was over $3 for the majority of 2016 and really not much has changed fundamental wise since this. Although they are now forecasting the bottom year of guidance, they still hit their target and their dividend has grown consecutively for a very long time. They were also on track with their forecasted dividend.

I don't share your doom and gloom on this one, but we shall see

With a name like BlackPeter, one has to expect a certain amount of doom and gloom aye.

[BlackPeter]

You seem to forget this share was over $3 for the majority of 2016 and really not much has changed fundamental wise since this. Although they are now forecasting the bottom year of guidance, they still hit their target and their dividend has grown consecutively for a very long time. They were also on track with their forecasted dividend.

I don't share your doom and gloom on this one, but we shall see

Actually - there have been a number of quite significant market changes impacting on IFT in the second half of 2016:

1) markets started to realise that interest rates are now at the very bottom and start climbing again. Bad for retirement stocks, bad for property and bad for companies who need to pay interest to fund their leverage.

2) A significant drop of REITs all across the world (linked as well into above).

3) Electricity prices in NZ historically quite low and no prospects of recovery - not good for their TPW holding;

As a consequence of above are IFT's holdings dropping in value - and market seems (in my view correctly) to assume that this is not just a temporary blip. Just watch the trend ...

With a name like BlackPeter, one has to expect a certain amount of doom and gloom aye.

I like my pen name and avatar ... and hey, if you look at the traditional "persona": while BlackPeter used to be in some European countries the guy who told off children and reminded them of their misbehaviour, he always had a point and truth on his side .

No point in shooting the messenger.

[Harvey Specter]

From all accounts, NZBus are currently getting hammered in the Auckland PTOM tenders - they have lost the South and the East with North, West and Central still to go. I've heard they are not the current front running on a lot of their existing central runs. They are already starting to sell down buses as the potentially wont need as many and what they do have are probably too small (AT are requiring 3 axle or DoubleD's on most routes).