Black Monday

[JeremyALD]

Where you gonna go??...car keys??...Remember you're on a boat in the deep Pacific.... .....
Sorry Arc..couldn't resist myself..

On more serious note..I was 98% "in" now about 80% after today...Started off-loading the ones with any sell signals and taking profits off the table, not hanging around with wait and see when the NZX50 looks dodgy

Why does the NZX50 look dodgey though? It's been stable around 7000 for a while. A lot of companies are performing well too. The shockers have been because of bad performance, not economic trends?

[Baa_Baa]

Why does the NZX50 look dodgey though? It's been stable around 7000 for a while. A lot of companies are performing well too. The shockers have been because of bad performance, not economic trends?

NZX50 is backtesting 200 DMA support, right on the mid-channel of the whole rising trend from post GFC. It is well off it's high of 7585 Sep 2016.

There is so much large foreign money in the NZX who have made a heap of dough on the sustained year-on-year rises +dividends, that will exit on a heartbeat if their profits and capital are threatened. It really doesn't matter how well the actual companies are performing.

Small as it is, the NZX is part of the global markets. Today (last night) some think they saw the Trump bubble get pricked, DOW certainly fell through the steep rising Trump support trend line. Just keep an eye on whether the big international markets get the collywobbles, and if they do, NZX is sure to follow.

[winner69]

Why does the NZX50 look dodgey though? It's been stable around 7000 for a while. A lot of companies are performing well too. The shockers have been because of bad performance, not economic trends?

Even though economy and individual companies might be doing OK market sentiment changes and punters are not prepared to pay elevated multiples - share prices drift down

NZX50C (Capital Index) down almost 10% since October. Thats quite a lot eh

Maybe likely higher interest rates or a factor or maybe aome think the economy has peaked this time around and not going to be so robust in next year or two or as baabaa points out global influences are starting to have a greater impact

[Baa_Baa]

Even though economy and individual companies might be doing OK market sentiment changes and punters are not prepared to pay elevated multiples - share prices drift down

NZX50C (Capital Index) down almost 10% since October. Thats quite a lot eh

Maybe likely higher interest rates or a factor or maybe aome think the economy has peaked this time around and not going to be so robust in next year or two or as baabaa points out global influences are starting to have a greater impact

Good observation winner, the NZX capital index broke down on Monday from the rising trend line Oct 2015 and stopped on the 400 DMA which is close to 50% fib retrace, until today when it went lower. The chart is pretty sick.

Considering that the index isn't a trading instrument per se, maybe Jeremy has a point that some companies have pulled it down, but with a tail wind of international market going off the boil, hoo nose.

[janner]

hoo nose.

One has to hope that it is not " Hooray "..

[JeremyALD]

I just think the NZX50 is still up from this time a year ago by about 10%. The market got way ahead of itself when the NZX was 7500 in September, some shares were completely stretched on PE and things came falling back down to earth during the election. I actually think there's some value in NZX stocks still, especially given good dividend yields which are growing in many companies. I also think around 7000 is fair value for New Zealand stocks and it trending around this level isn't a bad thing IMO. New Zealand is an attractive and pretty safe place to invest your money and interest rates while rising in the US isn't happening quickly.

Interestingly ASX fell 1.5% today and NZX only .3%. The ASX got a much bigger Trump Bump than NZ so in my opinion they are more at risk if / when Trumps policies fail. New Zealand will of course be negatively impacted if that happens too, but I see no reason for panic at the moment locally.

[couta1]

I just think the NZX50 is still up from this time a year ago by about 10%. The market got way ahead of itself when the NZX was 7500 in September, some shares were completely stretched on PE and things came falling back down to earth during the election. I actually think there's some value in NZX stocks still, especially given good dividend yields which are growing in many companies. I also think around 7000 is fair value for New Zealand stocks and it trending around this level isn't a bad thing IMO. New Zealand is an attractive and pretty safe place to invest your money and interest rates while rising in the US isn't happening quickly.

Interestingly ASX fell 1.5% today and NZX only .3%. The ASX got a much bigger Trump Bump than NZ so in my opinion they are more at risk if / when Trumps policies fail. New Zealand will of course be negatively impacted if that happens too, but I see no reason for panic at the moment locally.

Nice summary, I've lost count of the number of times the doom merchants have led us to believe we should all run for the hills, both on here and in the media, just sit tight and keep collecting nice divvies, market oscillations, of various sizes will continue to occur as they always have.

[winner69]

Nice summary, I've lost count of the number of times the doom merchants have led us to believe we should all run for the hills, both on here and in the media, just sit tight and keep collecting nice divvies, market oscillations, of various sizes will continue to occur as they always have.

Exactly

Great chart of The Wall of Worry in this article

http://theirrelevantinvestor.com/201...-go-unnoticed/

[couta1]

Exactly

Great chart of The Wall of Worry in this article

http://theirrelevantinvestor.com/201...-go-unnoticed/

Every investor should print a few copies of that article out and put it in various places around their house (Start with behind the toilet door)

[BlackPeter]

Exactly

Great chart of The Wall of Worry in this article

http://theirrelevantinvestor.com/201...-go-unnoticed/

good article, thanks for sharing.