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  1. #1841
    Legend peat's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hoop View Post
    The generalised target price measure of this breakout is 2355 + (2400-2330) = 2425....Bulkowski's TP value is less 2355 + [ (2400 - 2330) x 84%] = 2414 ..

    ..the resistances at 2390 and 2400 should be watched...

    Gap filling....Can be an anxious time....An upward breakout can be followed by a throwback to test the breakout area before it moves up again..If this happens (37% chance..Bulkowski) it will fill the gap but remain medium term bullish...

    Is it a false breakout (bull trap)?...Chances of a breakeven or negative result is 7% (Bulkowski)
    At 2390 TP I must be leaving some for Bhudda.
    It wont take me out yet if the gap fills, but I'm not really thinking it will pull back that far - for some reason I also saw this as a high conviction play.
    For clarity, nothing I say is advice....

  2. #1842
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    Quote Originally Posted by peat View Post
    At 2390 TP I must be leaving some for Bhudda.
    It wont take me out yet if the gap fills, but I'm not really thinking it will pull back that far - for some reason I also saw this as a high conviction play.

    Yep it seems a high conviction play..

    Your quote..."..so the bearish gartley (yellow) played out and took us to the 1.618 extension at 2319 (lowest red dotted line). Now we have a bullish gartley playing out (purple) which could take us back up to 2414..."

    Interesting the two chart pattern disciplines (harmonics and simple price chart pattern) both feature TP of 2414.

  3. #1843
    Legend peat's Avatar
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    2390 TP hit , so I'm happy if anyone wants the remaining 24 points I left

  4. #1844
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    WTF happened overnight - down about 2%

    And yesterday they were touting that were we going through a period of unprecedented low volatility
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  5. #1845
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    WTF happened overnight - down about 2%

    And yesterday they were touting that were we going through a period of unprecedented low volatility

    Lots of Global uncertainties (risk) has been bubbling away under the surface. All it needed was a little crack (to alter market sentiment), any excuse will do...Trump and Anti-Trump media circus have supplied this .
    Also we have to remember it is May after all

    Technically..the market being so flat lately (low volatility) it wouldn't take much to create damage and that happened today when the market went from great news to Sh1t with just a 2% swing....Just today's actions confirmed a double top pattern (bearish) ...closed (gap down) the end of April's candlestick gap (gap up) (bearish)..broke MA50 and many other TA indicators..
    Just how far the fall will be is anyone's guess..there is resistance nearby at the 2325..so it could be a flash in the pan....
    If the 2325 resistance fails, it could be the start of another bull market correction which could last for 2 to 3 months...The other scenario is the cycle reversal back to bear..for reality's sake, we have to keep reminding ourselves that this Wall St Bull is extremely old (8 years 3 months) and it's days are numbered..

    My sentiment indicator which has been in caution mode for quite some time has today triggered the GET OUT warning (see my next post below)

  6. #1846
    Legend peat's Avatar
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    All these distractions push out the timetable and risk associated with meaningful reforms to take place.

    OR, is it just filling the gap
    SP500Daily18052017.JPG
    For clarity, nothing I say is advice....

  7. #1847
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    Default Another "cry wolf" or is it a decent correction this time...you choose

    During the last stage of the cyclical cycle (bull or bear) the market goes irrational and ignores it's own checks and balances both fundamental (sustaining over-valuations seem like the new "norm") and Technical (TA indicators throw up "cry wolf" signals)..Investor sentiment rides this irrational wave and believe it will last a long time (Seeing both Fundamentals and Technicals failing reinforces their belief that this is a new era and this time it's all different)...

    My Sentiment Indicator works nearly 100% of the time with an average of 2 to 3 day warnings..over the last 2 to 3 years it has successfully predicted corrections which have unfortunately turned out to be very shallow /minor events so resulting in "cry wolf" scenarios..

    After a long duration of "cry wolf" scenarios investors lose respect and ignore indicators and the Guru's that use them (e.g Bob Shiller) ..that's why so many "experienced" investors/institutions lose heaps of money when a cyclical reversal finally arrives..Their behaviour is "one of denial" they stay investing long with a bull to Bear reversal, and investing short bear to bull.

    An interesting thing about the Sentiment indicator chart below:....
    Notice during the last S&P500 record breaking high there was a falling trend in the percentage of company's prices above their MA200 line (68%)..This showed up as a caution (-ve divergence) with several TA indicators including the two I use (KST ROC)..

    Need all 4 red arrows to trigger the Get Out signal...

    Previous Sentiment Indicator warning chart posted 13th October 2016 Post #1776 (Pre-Trump Presidential election)

    Last edited by Hoop; 18-05-2017 at 12:12 PM.

  8. #1848
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    A friend sent me a chart and detail of the S&P 500. Only 4 were positive holding the mkt up , Facebook ,Netflix ,Google and Apple having added $260 billion mkt cap in 2017;the other 496 were in the red having lost $260billion mkt cap in 2017.!!
    Last edited by Joshuatree; 23-05-2017 at 01:24 PM.

  9. #1849
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    Quote Originally Posted by Joshuatree View Post
    A friend sent me a chart and detail of the S&P 500. Only 4 were positive holding the mkt up , Facebook ,Netflix ,Google and Apple having added $260 billion mkt cap in 2017;the other 496 were in the red having lost $260billion mkt cap in 2017.!!
    Yes partially true...the big companies holding up the S&P500 index
    See my NYA200r chart above..That chart shows the percentage of S&P500 companies above the ma200 line..At posting there were 62% companies above their MA200 line..Today it has risen to 66% with the S&P500 index snap back above its MA50..On the surface it may sound a bullish start to another, however the above chart indicators are slow to react to this atm...so caution (regarding this snap back rally) is a prudent action...

  10. #1850
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hoop View Post
    During the last stage of the cyclical cycle (bull or bear) the market goes irrational and ignores it's own checks and balances both fundamental (sustaining over-valuations seem like the new "norm") and Technical (TA indicators throw up "cry wolf" signals)..Investor sentiment rides this irrational wave and believe it will last a long time (Seeing both Fundamentals and Technicals failing reinforces their belief that this is a new era and this time it's all different)...

    My Sentiment Indicator works nearly 100% of the time with an average of 2 to 3 day warnings..over the last 2 to 3 years it has successfully predicted corrections which have unfortunately turned out to be very shallow /minor events so resulting in "cry wolf" scenarios..

    After a long duration of "cry wolf" scenarios investors lose respect and ignore indicators and the Guru's that use them (e.g Bob Shiller) ..that's why so many "experienced" investors/institutions lose heaps of money when a cyclical reversal finally arrives..Their behaviour is "one of denial" they stay investing long with a bull to Bear reversal, and investing short bear to bull.

    An interesting thing about the Sentiment indicator chart below:....
    Notice during the last S&P500 record breaking high there was a falling trend in the percentage of company's prices above their MA200 line (68%)..This showed up as a caution (-ve divergence) with several TA indicators including the two I use (KST ROC)..

    Need all 4 red arrows to trigger the Get Out signal...

    Previous Sentiment Indicator warning chart posted 13th October 2016 Post #1776 (Pre-Trump Presidential election)

    Hey Hoop appreciate the detailed posts. I can't seem to view the second link, is there any chance you could re upload or send me the chart? Cheers

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