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17-06-2017, 09:31 AM
#961
Originally Posted by blackcap
Am I right in thinking that this puts them on a PE of NPBT of about 6.5? In that sense even 8.5 cents could be very cheap. A profit of $2.2m before tax would net a NPAT of about $1.55m which on the amount of share outstanding is about 1 cent per share. They could easily pay a dividend of .5 cent from that....
I do not know if there are tax losses to be utilised or not but if they do pay full tax then I'm presuming the divided will be imputed....
I looked into the tax losses yesterday and made the following observation,
last financial year the company payed $182th income tax on a NPBT of $1.574mil.
If I understand the tax situation (and I am not an accountant) right the tax rate was this low (11%) because some tax losses from NZ Farmers Livestock could be transformed to off set ALF tax.
ALF has increased its share holding in NZ Farmers Livestock which as I understand it will make the transfer of tax losses from NZFL more likely. ALF might not pay any tax for a long time as the group have unrecognised deferred tax assets as at 30-June 2016 of over $48mil.
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17-06-2017, 11:38 AM
#962
Originally Posted by forest
I looked into the tax losses yesterday and made the following observation,
last financial year the company payed $182th income tax on a NPBT of $1.574mil.
If I understand the tax situation (and I am not an accountant) right the tax rate was this low (11%) because some tax losses from NZ Farmers Livestock could be transformed to off set ALF tax.
ALF has increased its share holding in NZ Farmers Livestock which as I understand it will make the transfer of tax losses from NZFL more likely. ALF might not pay any tax for a long time as the group have unrecognised deferred tax assets as at 30-June 2016 of over $48mil.
Basically correct Forest.
The $182 thousand is likely to be ALF's share of the amount of tax paid by NZFL.. not tax paid directly by ALF themselves. I think this is the case as the Annual Report is a consolidated statement including ALF's subsidiaries.
Imputation can only apply to tax that has been paid by a given entity, and then can only benefit the shareholders of that said entity.
My understanding is no past losses from NZFL (if any) can come into the ALF's tax calculation. So NZFL themselves do not appear to have any remaining past losses available to them.
ie. For NZFL to have paid any tax at all means they have utilised any/all of their past losses (if they had any in the 1st place).
So any imputation benefit of tax paid by NZFL can only be picked up by ALF in its tax calculations, but not by ALF's shareholders.
If ALF themselves were to pay any tax to which imputation applies, then the shareholder continuity test must be passed before the shareholders get that benefit.
I think it is prudent to assume that ALF is unlikely to pass the Shareholder Continuity test. Given that assumption, I conclude there will be no imputation available to ALF shareholders for quite some years as the ALF entity will not be paying any tax (unless they get $50 million back form the law suit).
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17-06-2017, 11:58 AM
#963
Well done Vaygor!
These are my FY17 numbers to calculate pe
|
FY17 est |
|
NPBT |
2198 |
|
NPAT |
1912.26 |
Based 1H tax rate |
attributable |
1128.88 |
Based 1H split |
shares |
160,635 |
|
eps |
0.0070 |
|
price |
0.081 |
|
pe |
11.53 |
|
Last edited by noodles; 17-06-2017 at 01:01 PM.
No advice here. Just banter. DYOR
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17-06-2017, 12:01 PM
#964
Originally Posted by janner
As an ex holder. ( lost.. Not too much ) Have always had an interest .. And still do..
I find it difficult to understand the likes of Vaygor1 who hangs in there.. As see weed has with ATM.. Understanding that they are seasoned investors..
With me at this very late stage of my life .... Still trying to learn ... From their mistakes :-))))))))))))))
Good to see the recovery.. Percy may beat me with this year again. Still have my hopes on our mutual loser WDT. :-))
Saddle up tomorrow perc... Non tourist.. Good having friends in strange places...
Thanks for your post Janner.
At all times in the past 7 years (since I started buying ALF) I have believed through analysis that firstly ALF wouldn't go broke, and secondly, that they were likely to make a recovery. I am pleased of course that my time, calculations, and patience appear to have paid off.
Hanging in there (aka retaining my interest, as I still do) can only be due to my expectation of ALF's progress and performance throughout that 7 years. Further, given the trifling price paid per share for a large amount of that time, I really had very little to lose (relatively) in the event I was wrong.
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17-06-2017, 04:01 PM
#965
Member
Originally Posted by vaygor1
thanks for your post janner.
At all times in the past 7 years (since i started buying alf) i have believed through analysis that firstly alf wouldn't go broke, and secondly, that they were likely to make a recovery. I am pleased of course that my time, calculations, and patience appear to have paid off.
Hanging in there (aka retaining my interest, as i still do) can only be due to my expectation of alf's progress and performance throughout that 7 years. Further, given the trifling price paid per share for a large amount of that time, i really had very little to lose (relatively) in the event i was wrong.
alf have form when it comes to recovery. Not so many years ago former md and chairman ( who says they shouldnt be the same person sometimes?) brian train with help from doug hazard performed the miracle , now gary bluett and his team have done the houdini trick. Bring on justine smith qc to pull a few big rabbits !
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09-07-2017, 06:28 PM
#966
Originally Posted by noodles
Well done Vaygor!
These are my FY17 numbers to calculate pe
|
FY17 est |
|
NPBT |
2198 |
|
NPAT |
1912.26 |
Based 1H tax rate |
attributable |
1128.88 |
Based 1H split |
shares |
160,635 |
|
eps |
0.0070 |
|
price |
0.081 |
|
pe |
11.53 |
|
Thanks for this Noodles. Appreciate the breakdown.
I think the PE (following audited release next month) will in reality be a bit lower than this for the following reasons:
* 40% stated as a minimum in the guidance so I am expecting 60% at least (wishful thinking?)
* ALF own double the amount of L.I.Redshaw for Financial Year just completed than the year previous. As such, the split for Attributable will be higher (in ALF's favour) than last audited result. Not sure how much higher, but definitely not lower
UPDATE: I think I have the last bullet wrong as the FY split should be the same as the H1 split, so the Attributable split you have stated there in your chart Noodles should be correct.
Last edited by Vaygor1; 09-07-2017 at 06:34 PM.
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09-07-2017, 09:00 PM
#967
Member
Originally Posted by Vaygor1
Thanks for this Noodles. Appreciate the breakdown.
I think the PE (following audited release next month) will in reality be a bit lower than this for the following reasons:
* 40% stated as a minimum in the guidance so I am expecting 60% at least (wishful thinking?)
* ALF own double the amount of L.I.Redshaw for Financial Year just completed than the year previous. As such, the split for Attributable will be higher (in ALF's favour) than last audited result. Not sure how much higher, but definitely not lower
UPDATE: I think I have the last bullet wrong as the FY split should be the same as the H1 split, so the Attributable split you have stated there in your chart Noodles should be correct.
Thanks
So do you have a guesstimate for a Div?
0.5
0.75
Nothing?
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10-07-2017, 02:28 PM
#968
Originally Posted by Lola
Thanks
So do you have a guesstimate for a Div?
0.5
0.75
Nothing?
I did a sensitivity analysis based on NPBT growth of 40% and higher (compared to last year's FY result), and threw in a few other assumptions.
Base on the output, I can't really see a dividend under $0.005, and think it unlikely that the guidance announcement released in mid-June will be conservative enough to see an increase of over 100% in NPBT
So with a min NPBT increase of 40% and a max of 100%, my guestimate is a dividend of half a cent per share. Possibly slightly higher if the board are happy to go up in 0.1 cent increments.
Bear in mind, ALF might not get the chance to pay any dividend if NZ Farmers Livestock decide to retain all their earnings, but I think this unlikely.
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11-07-2017, 05:12 PM
#969
Member
Originally Posted by Vaygor1
I did a sensitivity analysis based on NPBT growth of 40% and higher (compared to last year's FY result), and threw in a few other assumptions.
Base on the output, I can't really see a dividend under $0.005, and think it unlikely that the guidance announcement released in mid-June will be conservative enough to see an increase of over 100% in NPBT
So with a min NPBT increase of 40% and a max of 100%, my guestimate is a dividend of half a cent per share. Possibly slightly higher if the board are happy to go up in 0.1 cent increments.
Bear in mind, ALF might not get the chance to pay any dividend if NZ Farmers Livestock decide to retain all their earnings, but I think this unlikely.
Fair enough. I agree 0.5 c seems very do able....maybe just maybe with an additional 0.25c "bonus". ie not an indication it will always be the new level, but rather to celebrate the return of Allied to the ranks a dividend paying entity. Something worth celebrating when you consider the rocky seas in recent past.
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12-07-2017, 04:42 PM
#970
Originally Posted by Lola
Fair enough. I agree 0.5 c seems very do able....maybe just maybe with an additional 0.25c "bonus". ie not an indication it will always be the new level, but rather to celebrate the return of Allied to the ranks a dividend paying entity. Something worth celebrating when you consider the rocky seas in recent past.
Maybe a bit wishful thinking there, but then again, why not? I can't think of a better reason for an extra 'bonus' given the 10 years it's taken for ALF's cows to come home to roost.
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