MPG - Metro Glass

[Beagle]

https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws....073/264199.pdf

Page 5 clearly says N.Z. sales have been flat, (not group sales).

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/3...ed-outlookhtml

Now ready to make my call on valuation.

Anticipating a flat result for FY18 compared to normalized FY17 $21.3m on 185.3m shares = 11.5 cps. I will stick with a PE of 10 at this stage and wait for proof of earnings growth. I think fair value is $1.15. If others want to assume earnings growth in the years ahead that's fair enough and they're absolutely entitled to that opinion and I hope they're right.
Disc: Holding a very small position.

[JeremyALD]

https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws....073/264199.pdf

Page 5 clearly says N.Z. sales have been flat, (not group sales). I think the analyst who commented on NBR that this was very poor has misinterpreted this as sales for the company overall are flat and made the comment that this was poor because of the expanded size of the group including the Australian operation.

It said NZ revenue is flat is YOY but group results are expected to be similar to first half of last year. I think we can take from that AU results will be pretty flat as well and we'll run to a similar NPAT result as the first half of last year.

Not all that bad really. This company is still learning and it's going to take a while for them to optimise operations.

[Beagle]

It said NZ revenue is flat is YOY but group results are expected to be similar to first half of last year. I think we can take from that AU results will be pretty flat as well and we'll run to a similar NPAT result as the first half of last year.

Not all that bad really. This company is still learning and it's going to take a while for them to optimise operations.

Yeap, agree and I finally joined the dots...must have been having a "senior hound" day yesterday lol
If they get beaten down heavily from here (perhaps as a result of exiting the NZX50) I might dip my paw in the water for a few more but I am not a buyer unless they're at a discount of at least 10% discount to my valuation above. $1.00 might get the hound joining in the hunt with more enthusiasm.

[percy]

Yeap, agree and I finally joined the dots...must have been having a "senior hound" day yesterday lol
If they get beaten down heavily from here (perhaps as a result of exiting the NZX50) I might dip my paw in the water for a few more but I am not a buyer unless they're at a discount of at least 10% discount to my valuation above. $1.00 might get the hound joining in the hunt with more enthusiasm.

Maybe time for you to revisit being a disciple of KW.
Renew your vows of never buying a stock in a down trend.
Old dogs should just try to keep up with old tricks,which work.!!..lol.

[winner69]

It said NZ revenue is flat is YOY but group results are expected to be similar to first half of last year. I think we can take from that AU results will be pretty flat as well and we'll run to a similar NPAT result as the first half of last year.

Not all that bad really. This company is still learning and it's going to take a while for them to optimise operations.

Group flat = AU up (6 months v 2 months) and NZ down (for second half year in a row)

[winner69]

Not all that bad really. This company is still learning and it's going to take a while for them to optimise operations.

Cmon Jeremy - Metro have been around for decades and been learning all those years

I remember back in 1977 while on a trip to the UK looking at some optimsation software for them (or the comopany now known as Metro) to maximise the amount of different size orders that could be cut from a big sheet of glass ....and bought it back and installed it. made a big difference to the left overs that used to go in the waste bins.

Always looking for efficiencies and ways to increase productivity - nothing new - almost a necessity to stay in the game


And most of any gains end up as cheaper product for the end user

[winner69]

https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws....073/264199.pdf

Page 5 clearly says N.Z. sales have been flat, (not group sales). I think the analyst who commented on NBR that this was very poor has misinterpreted this as sales for the company overall are flat and made the comment that this was poor because of the expanded size of the group including the Australian operation.

I think Metro are creating the confusion themselves ...maybe a good ploy

Best result probably is Groups half year to be similar to last year (which only had 2 months AGG)

Your guess as good as mine

The Chair address mentioned both NZ sales and Group results -

Given the current conditions we are seeing in the market, we expect the Group’s first half results to be similar to those achieved in the first half last year, which was a particularly strong half. Activity levels to date have been below our expectations and as we had resourced the business accordingly there will be a need to adapt and pursue efficiency initiatives through the second half of the year

[Beagle]

I think Metro are creating the confusion themselves ...maybe a good ploy

Best result probably is Groups half year to be similar to last year (which only had 2 months AGG)

Your guess as good as mine

The Chair address mentioned both NZ sales and Group results -

Given the current conditions we are seeing in the market, we expect the Group’s first half results to be similar to those achieved in the first half last year, which was a particularly strong half. Activity levels to date have been below our expectations and as we had resourced the business accordingly there will be a need to adapt and pursue efficiency initiatives through the second half of the year

Thanks mate. One wonders what they're inferring by this ? Is that what has the market spooked ?