Which to buy?? AIA FPH MFT THL

[Justin]

Thl's pe 17.54 vs Mft's pe 24.25 today

[percy]

Interesting comparing the two.
I have reached a very different conclusion.
Both have increased by just about the same amount over the past year.Around 42% according to google and Yahoo,so we must concentrate of future growth and dividend yield.
Again thank you www.4-traders.com.
..Dividend yields.................2017..............2018..... .........2019...............2020.
MFT...................................02%......... ......1.92%.....;;...2.15%.............2.44%....av erage1.6325%THL................................... .............04%.................5.41%..........6. 12%.............6.84%.average 4.60%
Clear winner THL.
So EPS /Growth...............................2017....growt h....2018..growth...2019.growth..2020
MFT............................................... .101.......12.8%...114....11.4%....127..13.34%.144 ......average eps growth 12.5%
THL............................................... .24.6......26.8%.....31.2..12.5%....35.1...9.1%... 38.3....average eps growth 16.34%
So againTHL is the clear winner.

[Justin]

Why mtf's dividend so lower than average only 1.67% compare to thl 4.44% annual.

[percy]

Why mtf's dividend so lower than average only 1.67% compare to thl 4.44% annual.

I will leave Peat to answer that one....lol.

[peat]

Why mtf's dividend so lower than average only 1.67% compare to thl 4.44% annual.

Dividends are irrelevant.

[peat]

Interesting comparing the two.
I have reached a very different conclusion.
Both have increased by just about the same amount over the past year.Around 42% according to google and Yahoo,so we must concentrate of future growth and dividend yield.
Again thank you www.4-traders.com.
..Dividend yields.................2017..............2018..... .........2019...............2020.
MFT...................................02%......... ......1.92%.....;;...2.15%.............2.44%....av erage1.6325%THL................................... .............04%.................5.41%..........6. 12%.............6.84%.average 4.60%
Clear winner THL.
So EPS /Growth...............................2017....growt h....2018..growth...2019.growth..2020
MFT............................................... .101.......12.8%...114....11.4%....127..13.34%.144 ......average eps growth 12.5%
THL............................................... .24.6......26.8%.....31.2..12.5%....35.1...9.1%... 38.3....average eps growth 16.34%
So againTHL is the clear winner.

Hey Percy
Agree that THL has done the same over the last year but its just taken a big leap in size , in debt, and if that plays out well then sure it might grow faster than MFT over the next few years. But its volatility history, i.e. its identifiable and quantifiable risk is a lot higher. therefore risk adjusted return is lower. I seem to recall a while back it screwed up quite badly ?? whats the chance that at some time THL flounders again ?? a lot more than MFT is my answer.

If I had to set and forget MFT every time. If you want to flick in and out then maybe some higher returns in the near term via THL.

Dont get me wrong THL is good now and I've put some people into it recently

Actually re-reading the OP says 2 years time frame which is a bit silly actually for shares but yes for two years THL probably do better than MFT.

[LAC]

Dividends are irrelevant.

Businesses which pay less in divies should have better growth rates because they keep more of the $ to invest in themselves (acquisitions etc.) so i would say it is relevant if EPS growth isnt there.....

[Hoop]

Interesting comparing the two.
I have reached a very different conclusion.........
Clear winner THL.
So againTHL is the clear winner.

.

Your winners haven't raced yet..This rosy future is not guaranteed..THL is a cyclical Company and growth may not be sustained during an economic downturn..a true cyclical waxes and wanes.. grows and shrinks..It is very hard to determine whether THL is in fact experiencing real positive growth (grows more than it shrinks) more than MFT over an extended time....As Peat pointed out the beta co-efficient for THL is a lot higher than MFT..This makes THL a darling exponential money maker when the economy booms and a portfolio killer when the tide turns and THL does some shrinking..a typical cyclical stock which should never be included as a buy & hold in a very long term (superanuation type) portfolio..

MFT is also affected by economic conditions but over the many years (including recessionary times) it has had growth....It's been a constant performer..

Thl's pe 17.54 vs Mft's pe 24.25 today

Cyclicals grow and shrink so their PE is always lower than the NZ index average.. so THL is loooking a tad high (overvalued)....MFT is a growth stock so their PE will always be higher than the average,,until they stop growing..

Why mtf's dividend so lower than average only 1.67% compare to thl 4.44% annual.

Dividends are irrelevant.

Growth stocks usually have either no dividend or low yielding dividends...much of the profits reinvest into the growth story...Constant shareprice increase takes care of the non-dividend..(and no tax).
Cyclical stocks during boom times pay out very high yielding dividends which again makes THL look a bit lousy at the moment.....eh...and cyclicals also often pay high yielding dividends during bad times sadly with a much reduced payout with a much reduced shareprice.

[percy]

Hey Percy
Agree that THL has done the same over the last year but its just taken a big leap in size , in debt, and if that plays out well then sure it might grow faster than MFT over the next few years. But its volatility history, i.e. its identifiable and quantifiable risk is a lot higher. therefore risk adjusted return is lower. I seem to recall a while back it screwed up quite badly ?? whats the chance that at some time THL flounders again ?? a lot more than MFT is my answer.

If I had to set and forget MFT every time. If you want to flick in and out then maybe some higher returns in the near term via THL.

Dont get me wrong THL is good now and I've put some people into it recently

Actually re-reading the OP says 2 years time frame which is a bit silly actually for shares but yes for two years THL probably do better than MFT.

THL was a disaster of a business.The difference would seem to be down to the arrival of Rob Campbell as chairman.The business now is well run,focussed in a rapidly growing sector.The future looks exciting,as more retirees have the time and the money to travel.Lower airfares has also made it possible for young people to travel.l
MFT.They made huge errors of judgement,Australia , Win Bossam,and The Warehouse's logistics.Don Baird would be about the best presenter I have ever heard.It is now a fantastic business,and growth will be driven by hard work,in a challenging sector.
However, taking into account a lower PE, and higher eps growth and dividends, THL would appear to be a better long term investment to me,and being in a stronger growth sector,the tail winds will be more profitable than MFT's headwinds.

ps.The book on the history of Mainfreight is a fantastic book to read.

[ace5715]

ps.The book on the history of Mainfreight is a fantastic book to read.

Totally agree about the Mainfreight book, Ready Fire Aim, just finished reading it and is a great read and highly recommend it to anyone who hasn't read it.