Quote Originally Posted by Snoopy View Post
The claim is that 1/30 is from 'historical data' (so not intuitive as you suggest Peat), but what data? Was it gathered in NZ only or is the data global? What industries made up the data? SNOOPY
Good questions but I wasnt actually saying that the statistic was intuitive, I was saying that my view is intuitive. Sorry for that lack of clarity.

"Almost no chance at all certainly not 1 in 30. This strikes me as intuitive rather than mathematical."


Quote Originally Posted by Snoopy View Post
Thus I see bonds right now as higher risk and lower return than shares, even though I acknowledge that shares are also high risk. Traditionally , when all those asset allocation text books were written, bonds and shares were more often than not 'out of sync'. I don't think this is so today, which is why I don't think the traditional textbook advice of the conservative investor weighting their portfolio towards bonds works in today's market.SNOOPY
Its worked pretty well I would've thought , capital gains, no failures (that I can think of) .