If National wins ...

[minimoke]

Hlouse prices have beedn rising world wide, but now slowing. NZ will have a higher than normal inflation rate beccuse of Peters' 1960's mentality - which he'll ram down Robertson's throat. Mandated wage increases will set off price rises - always does. Remember the 60s?

There is a problem ahead with house prices. Labour is committed to flooding the market with affordable housing. If they succeed then economics 101 will apply and we will see supply start to exceed demand and that will see a drop in house prices. Yet Labour / NZ First / Greens seem intent on pushing people into costly and potentially depreciating assets. Add in potential increases in interest rates this push into housing appear to be a fast train to poverty for some.

[fungus pudding]

There is a problem ahead with house prices. Labour is committed to flooding the market with affordable housing. If they succeed then economics 101 will apply and we will see supply start to exceed demand and that will see a drop in house prices. Yet Labour / NZ First / Greens seem intent on pushing people into costly and potentially depreciating assets. Add in potential increases in interest rates this push into housing appear to be a fast train to poverty for some.

It's beyond me when talk turns to building affordable housing. Just build houses. Plenty of establised, second time buyers will purchase and free up older homes quite suited to first home buyers. and the less affluent. I doubt if many posters here started out in an 'affordable' brand new house.

[Absolute144]

Anyone else think the majority of NZ first supporters, after actual NZ first supporters, were national supporter? I voted National Candidate and NZ first party, coz someone needed to reign in the land sales and lower immigration. I also think National could have gained a lot more support if bill english U turned on Keys ideas they shouldnt go into pike river. Oh well, nationals out - such is arrogance. Gotta hear the voice of the people i guess.

[Absolute144]

It's beyond me when talk turns to building affordable housing. Just build houses. Plenty of establised, second time buyers will purchase and free up older homes quite suited to first home buyers. and the less affluent. I doubt if many posters here started out in an 'affordable' brand new house.

No foreign ownership of land or houses, Cull immigration back to 1990 levels = Correction in housing market,

[Zaphod]

No foreign ownership of land or houses, Cull immigration back to 1990 levels = Correction in housing market,

It'll cause more than a correction (a highly subjective term) to just housing, and there in lies the problem.

[elZorro]

It'll cause more than a correction (a highly subjective term) to just housing, and there in lies the problem.

The coalition isn't talking about negative net immigration, it'll be somewhat lower, but still positive. Since Auckland house price increases look a lot like the net immigration chart, if net immigration goes negative, that would be a worry for Auckland. But it's not going to, is the assumption.

But anyway, if Aucklanders don't mind traffic jams getting worse, we could just leave the status quo. Sales reps and trade workers can just spend 3-4 hours a day trying to get to their next appointments, it's not such a big deal is it? Someone is paying for that.

No-one seems to mention the bonus to the economy with Kiwibuild coming on-line in the next years. That'll mop up thousands of unemployed people, give them good trade training. And there will be heaps of other jobs associated with it.

FP is quite right, people selling older houses will free up theirs for first-home purchasers. Except they might still be too expensive, being closer to Auckland's centre. Here I'm assuming the only really difficult place is Auckland. I suspect the land prices associated with these houses will take them out of reach.

Kiwibuild will use state-owned land in some cases, so the state will choose a suitable price component and house markup to allow the system to work for first-home buyers, I would think. The private sector won't do that.

[minimoke]

That'll mop up thousands of unemployed people, give them good trade training. And there will be heaps of other jobs associated with it..

Do you know what the unemployed NZ'er looks like. I can tell you it isn't s pretty sight

[elZorro]

Do you know what the unemployed NZ'er looks like. I can tell you it isn't s pretty sight

I quite agree, but if a business is big enough, they'll all fit in there somewhere. I'm not saying I'd want many of them in a small business operation where I needed some flexibility..

[Zaphod]

The coalition isn't talking about negative net immigration, it'll be somewhat lower, but still positive. Since Auckland house price increases look a lot like the net immigration chart, if net immigration goes negative, that would be a worry for Auckland. But it's not going to, is the assumption.

I'm certainly not advocating the net immigration will be zero, especially with the vast numbers of New Zealanders returning to the country and seeking jobs in the largest market - Auckland.

But anyway, if Aucklanders don't mind traffic jams getting worse, we could just leave the status quo. Sales reps and trade workers can just spend 3-4 hours a day trying to get to their next appointments, it's not such a big deal is it? Someone is paying for that.

The "status quo" is replicated the world over through the phenomenon of urban drift, as ever increasing numbers of people shift from the country and smaller cities to larger cities seeking opportunities and a more urban lifestyle. Artificially constraining the population is doomed to failure.

No-one seems to mention the bonus to the economy with Kiwibuild coming on-line in the next years. That'll mop up thousands of unemployed people, give them good trade training. And there will be heaps of other jobs associated with it.

The bonus to the economy is increased inflation as the government plough vast sums of cash back into the economy, raising interest rates and causing pain for those high leveraged individuals already in the cooling housing market. That's a major concern.

Trades training won't allow Labour to build even a fraction of their 10,000 houses per annum if immigration is paired back, for at least the first term. The building industry already has full order books, and training people to the point where they are productive enough to assist is a multi-year journey. Perhaps they are being overly ambitious.

Kiwibuild will use state-owned land in some cases, so the state will choose a suitable price component and house markup to allow the system to work for first-home buyers, I would think. The private sector won't do that.

Anything other than an open market based price for new affordable housing, amounts to a subsidy for a select few lucky purchasers. Is that really fair? Building houses in of itself should reduce pressure on the housing market according to Labour's own logic, so therefore shouldn't that be enough? Who knows.

Given we're moving to an era where the measure of economic output is based on feelings (according to JA's recent interview), it will be interesting to see what measures Labour use to determine their success in this field.

Of course I can see this turning back into a debate on the housing market, which is probably better covered elsewhere. Given the size of that conversation, it's pretty obvious there is no simple answer, despite what Labour proclaim.

[dobby41]

The bonus to the economy is increased inflation as the government plough vast sums of cash back into the economy, raising interest rates and causing pain for those high leveraged individuals already in the cooling housing market. That's a major concern.

I thought National has spent a few years now borrowing and ploughing vast sums back into the economy and inflations is now just lifting its' head.
Yet if Labour spends up pops inflations?