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17-11-2017, 10:40 PM
#5811
It's annoying that with SUM you can't call them up to talk about profitability in a flat market (they don't pick up the phone).
Best I can assume is that fundamentals haven't changed so much in their history that they suddenly can't make money as a normal business without property increases.
Therefore business is still good. Worst case scenario they drop to the value of eps + nta, which puts them at $3.60. Of course if valuations drop further, that will litter the nta. Hopefully I won't be eating my words here, but I place all that as a slim chance. Most likely business is still good, as I mentioned. Therefore I see them going up on the next announcement stating that the core business is ok, then going up drastically in the event that property prices don't go down any more.
That's gotta be a good bet, right?
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18-11-2017, 11:08 AM
#5812
Member
People are still getting older and people still need solutions. Nothing has changed in its core business - unless tesla release an electric body to replace our aging ones?
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18-11-2017, 02:08 PM
#5813
Originally Posted by Lewylewylewy
It's annoying that with SUM you can't call them up to talk about profitability in a flat market (they don't pick up the phone).
Best I can assume is that fundamentals haven't changed so much in their history that they suddenly can't make money as a normal business without property increases.
Therefore business is still good. Worst case scenario they drop to the value of eps + nta, which puts them at $3.60. Of course if valuations drop further, that will litter the nta. Hopefully I won't be eating my words here, but I place all that as a slim chance. Most likely business is still good, as I mentioned. Therefore I see them going up on the next announcement stating that the core business is ok, then going up drastically in the event that property prices don't go down any more.
That's gotta be a good bet, right?
Let's summarize what we know / guidance that's out there.
Julian Cook confirmed build guidance for the year of 450 units per month as recently as early October 2017 up from 400 last year.
They have nearly a six year history of doing what they say they will do and to the best of my knowledge have never missed build guidance before.
Development margins for the first half were at a record of 28%.
Their profit forecast issued much earlier this year for very strong growth in underlying profit has not been updated and would be required to be under the continuous disclosure requirements of the NZX so we can assume they are still on track.
REINZ data on average throughout N.Z. has been okay.
I think we're still on track for a very good year and the outlook is sound due to the very strong demographic tailwinds prevailing in this sector.
The underlying PE is very cheap. Potential risks and rewards appear well skewed towards the latter in my opinion.
Last edited by Beagle; 18-11-2017 at 02:10 PM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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24-11-2017, 12:19 PM
#5814
Member
Looks like we're climbing our way back. Not a lot of sellers below 5 at present.
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24-11-2017, 01:17 PM
#5815
Originally Posted by tipsy
Looks like we're climbing our way back. Not a lot of sellers below 5 at present.
You can thank the Ryman result for the climb.
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24-11-2017, 03:14 PM
#5816
Only question now is can we leave today with a price with a 5 at the front
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24-11-2017, 05:04 PM
#5817
Originally Posted by bull....
technicals look a worry , looks like it wants to test the 4.65 - 70 area?
gee wiz that area worked out well
one step ahead of the herd
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27-11-2017, 03:15 PM
#5818
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27-11-2017, 03:55 PM
#5819
Originally Posted by Ggcc
And up up she/he goes
Finally...its been a tough year to be a holder but I am expecting a MUCH better year in 2018.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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27-11-2017, 04:20 PM
#5820
Originally Posted by Beagle
Finally...its been a tough year to be a holder but I am expecting a MUCH better year in 2018.
It has been a weird one. But it is above my purchase price and I am happy I did not need the money in a hurry. I am hoping for $5.60 by Christmas and a hopeful announcement that they are doing better than previously thought
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