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01-12-2017, 05:14 PM
#1551
Originally Posted by Beagle
I think after that update some of you guys are being a bit optimistic hoping to get any more under $3.50...but one supposes you never know... but I wouldn't rule out other hounds chasing them too
P.S. Mate I sprung out of the starters gate like a startled greyhound this morning, (after reading that market update) and got a few at the open $3.45 and a few more later in the high 340's. Couldn't believe it didn't immediately gap up to over $3.50 really... right from the get go today.
Jeez - 15% sales increase and higher margins .....throw in a few extra expenses over f17 (not up 15% of course) and you are looking at an EPS of 40 cents in F18 (npat of $25m)
Yes mr beagle - share price won’t be below 350 until the next recession hits and there’s no sign of one of those for a while
a year ago Percy and myself were touting this 40 cents ....we knew what we were talking about eh
Last edited by winner69; 01-12-2017 at 05:25 PM.
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
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01-12-2017, 06:08 PM
#1552
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01-12-2017, 06:20 PM
#1553
Originally Posted by RupertBear
And Craigs have them as a SELL seriously!
For me this is one of the strongest announcements of the year across the NZX. Apparel is a hugely challenged industry with stores struggling for profitability. Most are seeing declining revenue and or margins, just take a look at Myer. It also seems Barker's is struggling too. The industry has more online players and retail players than ever before.
In this market Hallensteins have grown sales by 15% this year, and remember this is against last year's very strong first half year.
I'm really impressed with their approach and how they focus on digital channels and store based experience. Seriously good work.
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01-12-2017, 06:41 PM
#1554
Originally Posted by JeremyALD
For me this is one of the strongest announcements of the year across the NZX. Apparel is a hugely challenged industry with stores struggling for profitability. Most are seeing declining revenue and or margins, just take a look at Myer. It also seems Barker's is struggling too. The industry has more online players and retail players than ever before.
In this market Hallensteins have grown sales by 15% this year, and remember this is against last year's very strong first half year.
I'm really impressed with their approach and how they focus on digital channels and store based experience. Seriously good work.
Nothing new ....HLG have been doing ‘seriously good work’ for decades ....or more than a century
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
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01-12-2017, 10:57 PM
#1555
Originally Posted by JeremyALD
For me this is one of the strongest announcements of the year across the NZX. Apparel is a hugely challenged industry with stores struggling for profitability. Most are seeing declining revenue and or margins, just take a look at Myer. It also seems Barker's is struggling too. The industry has more online players and retail players than ever before.
In this market Hallensteins have grown sales by 15% this year, and remember this is against last year's very strong first half year.
I'm really impressed with their approach and how they focus on digital channels and store based experience. Seriously good work.
I couldn't agree more !
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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02-12-2017, 09:08 AM
#1556
To those with teh long memories - what happened in 2013 when HLG came off its highs of $5.90.
Seems to me that while the dividend yield is attractive you risk loosing 50% off share value as it swings up and down during the year. At $3.56 it is still off its 12 month high of $3.65
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02-12-2017, 09:29 AM
#1557
Originally Posted by minimoke
To those with teh long memories - what happened in 2013 when HLG came off its highs of $5.90.
Seems to me that while the dividend yield is attractive you risk loosing 50% off share value as it swings up and down during the year. At $3.56 it is still off its 12 month high of $3.65
Hallensteins has paid a 30c fully imputed dividend or close to it for many years now so the chances of this swinging that much is pretty low at these levels. Unless something really bad happens it won't drop below $2.60 which is what it hit after its worst year in 2015 (where they still paid out a very strong dividend). The current market price factors in very little growth (which Hallensteins are currently achieving) so if they can continue to grow the business you'll hopefully again see a 4 on the end of the SP.
I think a bit reason the SP hasn't taken off is the industry dynamics and competition. People are mindful that although Hallensteins are performing the apparel industry is very tough in New Zealand and particularly AU.
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02-12-2017, 09:33 AM
#1558
Originally Posted by JeremyALD
Hallensteins has paid a 30c fully imputed dividend or close to it for many years now so the chances of this swinging that much is pretty low at these levels. Unless something really bad happens it won't drop below $2.60 which is what it hit after its worst year in 2015 (where they still paid out a very strong dividend). The current market price factors in very little growth (which Hallensteins are currently achieving) so if they can continue to grow the business you'll hopefully again see a 4 on the end of the SP.
I think a bit reason the SP hasn't taken off is the industry dynamics and competition. People are mindful that although Hallensteins are performing the apparel industry is very tough in New Zealand and particularly AU.
Agree and one simply needs to look at the recent sales decline in the Warehouse which includes a lot of apparel to put HLG's stunning market update into its proper perspective.
If one needs further perspective I think most would agree that Rod Duke's extremely successful Briscoe group is a useful benchmark (perhaps the gold standard against which other retailers must be measured) and it should be noted that they grew their most recent quarterly sales by just under 2.5%. https://www.nzx.com/announcements/309676
I think its clear that last year's doubling of capex to roll out the update of lots more stores to the modern euro format is, and will be paying for the foreseeable future, big dividends. The risk here for the dividend hounds to consider is if they dividend strip this puppy and sell after it goes ex divvy they'll probably miss out on some very good growth going forward.
Last edited by Beagle; 02-12-2017 at 09:39 AM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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02-12-2017, 09:49 AM
#1559
Originally Posted by Beagle
The risk here for the dividend hounds to consider is if they dividend strip this puppy and sell after it goes ex divvy they'll probably miss out on some very good growth going forward.
That then seems to be the logical time to buy. Forego this divi and pick up at reduced value and wait for next divi.
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03-12-2017, 03:23 PM
#1560
Originally Posted by minimoke
That then seems to be the logical time to buy. Forego this divi and pick up at reduced value and wait for next divi.
Its pretty disappointing that we now have only one professional analyst covering HLG down from 3 a few months ago. http://www.4-traders.com/HALLENSTEIN...564/consensus/ Worth noting that when 3 were covering it the average valuation was $3.45 and now just one analyst valuing HLG at $3.50 which hasn't been updated for this weeks stunning market update.
My sense is taking into account this weeks news the stock is worth at the very least $3.50 ex divvy or $3.67 cum divvy and I have bene buying on that basis. As stated earlier this week I see fair value at around $4 and note that the last time HLG were looking so good to generate the sort of indicative profits that are implied by this latest news the shares were $5.90 so I don't think $4 is fanciful at all given that the apparel market has been weak overall, Briscoe's the gold standard for retail is only up 2.5% and its become clear HLG's refurbished stores have very strong appeal to consumers. They can continue to roll out that new store format with or without Di Humphries. It doesn't matter whether you buy before or after the dividend as long as you take into account the value of it.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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