HGH - Heartland Group Holdings

**value_investor** · 05-01-2018, 09:34 PM

In terms of valuation this one is still way over the original guidance given by management. Still not sure if this one will hold over 2.10 like it has done going into January now.

Given with the positive Q1 12% gain in net profit, the market has already priced in an revised upwards guidance by the looks of it. How high can this one go?

**JeremyALD** · 05-01-2018, 10:57 PM

Originally Posted by value_investor

In terms of valuation this one is still way over the original guidance given by management. Still not sure if this one will hold over 2.10 like it has done going into January now.

Given with the positive Q1 12% gain in net profit, the market has already priced in an revised upwards guidance by the looks of it. How high can this one go?

This one still amazes me. Not much has changed in relation to company performance or guidance since it was down at $1.20 18 months ago, yet it's nearly doubled in price. It's gone from a low PE with high dividend yield to the highest bank PE and moderate yield. Personally I can't see huge gains this year, but the market is loving growth at the moment and HBL continues to deliver that so who knows.

**Beagle** · 06-01-2018, 08:39 AM

Agree JeremyALD. It was a great year to be a HBL shareholder last year with a total shareholder return of over 50% inclusive of two deeply discounted rights issues..fantastic returns considering modest EPS growth, really surprising and most enjoyable indeed. Fact is HBL outperformed the NZX50 by well over double the index gain for the year. Disc: Sold out completely at $2.14 in December.

**horus1** · 06-01-2018, 09:08 AM

I hold a lot and will not sell. The Management do what they say. It is the only NZ bank and has an advantage over AU banks in that their are imputation credits on the div's. Worth around 2.00

**stoploss** · 06-01-2018, 10:17 AM

Originally Posted by horus1

I hold a lot and will not sell. The Management do what they say. It is the only NZ bank and has an advantage over AU banks in that their are imputation credits on the div's. Worth around 2.00

“ only NZ bank “ SBS, TSB , Kiwibank ???

**winner69** · 06-01-2018, 10:30 AM

Originally Posted by JeremyALD

This one still amazes me. Not much has changed in relation to company performance or guidance since it was down at $1.20 18 months ago, yet it's nearly doubled in price. It's gone from a low PE with high dividend yield to the highest bank PE and moderate yield. Personally I can't see huge gains this year, but the market is loving growth at the moment and HBL continues to deliver that so who knows.

I thought this is what ‘value investors’ like you loved .....buying ‘under valued’ stocks and seeing them be recognised and rerated by the market and making zillions in the process through the rerating on top of profit growth.

You shouldn’t be amazed ...it’s all gone to plan eh

They say true value investors sell when their target price is reached .....is this where you are now with your thinking.

I still hold ....when Jeff mentions $72m plus we’ll see $2.30 plus. That will be soon.

**horus1** · 06-01-2018, 10:51 AM

Stop loss . It is the only listed NZ bank which I can buy shares in. You have to be an investor to get the benefits of increases in value it seems to me. Govt ownership puts me of Kiwibank as over the years politicians dont tend to be good owners.

**JeremyALD** · 06-01-2018, 11:41 AM

Originally Posted by winner69

I thought this is what ‘value investors’ like you loved .....buying ‘under valued’ stocks and seeing them be recognised and rerated by the market and making zillions in the process through the rerating on top of profit growth.

You shouldn’t be amazed ...it’s all gone to plan eh

They say true value investors sell when their target price is reached .....is this where you are now with your thinking.

I still hold ....when Jeff mentions $72m plus we’ll see $2.30 plus. That will be soon.

Yes it was very good value play up until the last 6 months, but it has exceeded my expectations in its re-rating. I think HBL is more exposed to a economic downturn than other banks so at this level I think there's more long term downside than up.