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09-02-2018, 07:36 AM
#3941
Originally Posted by QOH
Yes those of us who remember 1987 are more wary. 30 years ago we had time to make up our losses, not enough time left now.
Before 1987 crash, I was making so much, I’d think “what am I am going to do with my money if I take it out of share market” kind of like now, who wants to settle for 3% interest.
I learnt from 1987 that it wasn’t a one day crash, it went on for months and I lost about 75% of my capital.
US markets are down this morning again .
not sure i want to lose 75% ......
im still a few % off my sell limit on most , but i think that will be eroded today . im up 14 % PA av. For the last 10 years . Last year being the best,but not keen to watch it fade away. Im too old to get that back .
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09-02-2018, 07:49 AM
#3942
Originally Posted by value_investor
Would be well advised to wait until Monday when FBU come off their trading halt and bring the markets down even more to load up more on stocks.
Happy days for all those who have some cash saved up on the sidelines.
Have had cash patienly waiting on the sidelines for over a year now and am only around 20% in bottom draw stocks. However, rushing back in now could be a big error, it is times like this even more patience is needed, we could be looking at the start of a year long unravelling.
Like Beagle said earlier, and something I agree with is that PEs have been in silly territory for some time and a revision to the historical mean will happen sooner or later. However it could take sometime.
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09-02-2018, 08:49 AM
#3943
Originally Posted by Yoda
US markets are down this morning again .
not sure i want to lose 75% ......
im still a few % off my sell limit on most , but i think that will be eroded today . im up 14 % PA av. For the last 10 years . Last year being the best,but not keen to watch it fade away. Im too old to get that back .
You’ve been lucky to have been in the market for the last 10 years ... one of the better 10 years in history.
As rankin/beagle say PE ratios could contract to more normal levels ...but usually over shoot on the down side. All this takes years.
Secular bear markets (not price but a cycle of contracting PE ratio) are bad news for investors. Historically market PEs fall below 10 in secular bear markets ...even though the economy and earnings continue to grow.
If we are to have a secular bear returns over the next 10 years will be very low. Some analyst have 10 future returns at close to 0% pa.
Thus Yoda your 10% pa probably won’t happen over the next years and as you hinted you don’t want to lose your hard earned gains. Just do what you think is right with each stock you own and there’s no shame in holding cash.
But then again it may be just a storm in a teacup at the moment — after all Trump has said the market has made a big mistake.
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
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09-02-2018, 08:52 AM
#3944
Originally Posted by Yoda
US markets are down this morning again .
not sure i want to lose 75% ......
im still a few % off my sell limit on most , but i think that will be eroded today . im up 14 % PA av. For the last 10 years . Last year being the best,but not keen to watch it fade away. Im too old to get that back .
Just checked. My US shares are down - but I am still up 25% on where I was a year ago and around 110% on where they were 5 years ago. I am far from panicking.
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09-02-2018, 08:57 AM
#3945
nzx should start playing catch up shortly
one step ahead of the herd
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09-02-2018, 09:00 AM
#3946
What really is volatility besides being the latest buzzword?
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
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09-02-2018, 09:03 AM
#3947
Originally Posted by ratkin
Have had cash patienly waiting on the sidelines for over a year now and am only around 20% in bottom draw stocks. However, rushing back in now could be a big error, it is times like this even more patience is needed, we could be looking at the start of a year long unravelling.
Like Beagle said earlier, and something I agree with is that PEs have been in silly territory for some time and a revision to the historical mean will happen sooner or later. However it could take sometime.
Some would also argue ratkin that it has been a "big error" to be sitting on much cash for the last 12 months while markets have been rallying !
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09-02-2018, 09:05 AM
#3948
Looks like a good day to get a bit of painting work done on the old fence, I'm 100% in the market now so nothing to do except wait for those nice fat divvies to start rolling in, in the not too distant future.
Last edited by couta1; 09-02-2018 at 09:13 AM.
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09-02-2018, 09:11 AM
#3949
Member
If US markets slide further tonight, Monday could be very, very interesting. The NZX50 will get double hit with FBU's (FUBAR) laundry getting further aired.
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09-02-2018, 09:19 AM
#3950
Originally Posted by minimoke
Just checked. My US shares are down - but I am still up 25% on where I was a year ago and around 110% on where they were 5 years ago. I am far from panicking.
Thats a great result--but is that sound logic for future dealings? You may not need it but an escape plan is no shame. right now success comes in 2 scenarios...you will either make money..or not lose money. (sticking to the glass half full frame of mind)
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