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09-02-2018, 05:47 PM
#3981
Originally Posted by couta1
Really, with the Dow down 4.15% and the S&P 3.75%, overnight
And that was just 1 days trading, what about the other days,
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09-02-2018, 05:54 PM
#3982
Originally Posted by arc
Resilient... ?
We have traditionally been slower to respond.. Respond being the key word. As US companies shrink activities the trickle down effect hits us later and lasts much longer. They recover in months, we take years.
Investing in the NZX and the DOW are certainly 2 different animals!--I dont think the US has hit the really slippery bit...just a wake up call in volatility at this stage.---Its interesting how gold has not increased--word is ,its selling to meet stock margin calls.
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09-02-2018, 05:55 PM
#3983
It will be very interesting to see if the trend continues next week, that will be the red flag event. Historically the market recovers after a 4% drop. Will this be the case next week ?, let's hope so.
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09-02-2018, 06:01 PM
#3984
Originally Posted by skid
Investing in the NZX and the DOW are certainly 2 different animals!--I dont think the US has hit the really slippery bit...just a wake up call in volatility at this stage.---Its interesting how gold has not increased--word is ,its selling to meet stock margin calls.
Yes, margin calls are another contributor to volatility. Robbing Peter to pay Paul.
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09-02-2018, 06:15 PM
#3985
Remembering that the US exchanges have software to limit lemming dives happening in one day. Remember the flash crashes that resulted from poorly designed robot trading...(they still have significant flaws) The exchange can now self regulate such events and if required auto-halt trades for defined time periods. End result, a drawn out decline...
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09-02-2018, 06:18 PM
#3986
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09-02-2018, 06:55 PM
#3987
Junior Member
When the recession hit in 2009, can anybody remember how much % stocks in NZ fell - I'm a relative new investor of two months and I think I've started at the wrong time, especially if there will be another recession. In a space of less than a week, my profit went from 10% to 1.5%.
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09-02-2018, 06:56 PM
#3988
Originally Posted by arc
Dow. -10% in 9 days
Still just blowing a bit of froth off the top, albeit big volatile swings this week, they're only just chinning the "correction" bar and far from a 'crash'. Interesting DOW 23860 has provided support twice, bounce once. If the 200 DMA breaks, current 22318, then likely fall all the way to a test of really strong long term support in the range 18500-18350.
Do the maths, for every 1000 points down in the DOW, what that means for the NZX, based on recent moves. Now look at the shares that you like and how they're affected, then finally decide whether riding out a Correction, a Crash or worse, a Bear is better than taking capital off the table and later on buying a whole lot more of the same share when the bottom is in.
Hands up who was actually involved in 87, or the Dot Bomb, or GFC, and what lessons you learnt and will apply now if it unfolds again? I share my lessons every time I mention tightly managing capital, trading momentum and using the charts to monitor sentiment and pick exits and entries.
Corrections are a fact of being in the market, riding out Crashes is optional, they are mean and can disproportionally affect shares held and doing nothing misses the leverage of selling and buying lower, but riding a Bear affects everything and can take years and years and years to recover from.
BAA
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09-02-2018, 07:08 PM
#3989
Originally Posted by Bazingaboy
When the recession hit in 2009, can anybody remember how much % stocks in NZ fell - I'm a relative new investor of two months and I think I've started at the wrong time, especially if there will be another recession. In a space of less than a week, my profit went from 10% to 1.5%.
About 50%. https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EN...YXJ0In19fX0%3D
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09-02-2018, 08:12 PM
#3990
Originally Posted by Bazingaboy
When the recession hit in 2009, can anybody remember how much % stocks in NZ fell - I'm a relative new investor of two months and I think I've started at the wrong time, especially if there will be another recession. In a space of less than a week, my profit went from 10% to 1.5%.
1.5% in two months is still a little over 9% annualised, nothing to be ashamed of. The 10% was the anomaly, 1.5% is more like what you would normally expect to see. No idea what will happen next, if you couldn't live with losing half your invested money (or more) then reconsider whether the money should be in the market, or be ready to sell at a loss before it reaches that point.
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