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07-05-2018, 11:15 PM
#2181
Originally Posted by Maverick
The exit point is when they get off the clothing choices path (styles and speed to market) they are currently on.We can all look back ten years of graphs and PE's and see they were once very popular but fell very hard. Right now they are white hot " on trend". In summer they sold cotton in the heat ,now they've swapped that for merino in winter. The trick they have currently mastered is that they can have a 16 yr, 30 and a 65 yr old lining up at the same counter. The other retailers only seem to have one demographic. whereas hlg appeal on some level to most women of all ages. Their online platform is superb too. Must be loads of efficiency paralleling that on.
So ...yes we are all a bit nervous they could crash and burn again but while they are operating like they are right now they are terrific value. ....."Aussy is a target rich environment"
Right-o. And a share price exit number that equates to all that verbiage?
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08-05-2018, 08:26 AM
#2182
Originally Posted by Hectorplains
Just for clarity, Roger. Are you espousing a long term hold? HLG is a solid company and recent performance has been excellent. If it's less than the bottom draw, where's your trade out point?
When EPS no longer looks good.
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08-05-2018, 08:47 AM
#2183
As shares usually overshoot fair value,I find it best to let profits run,and sell on the first bit of bad news.
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08-05-2018, 08:55 AM
#2184
Originally Posted by percy
As shares usually overshoot fair value,I find it best to let profits run,and sell on the first bit of bad news.
.....and then buy back after they’ve overshot on the downside (when news is better)
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
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08-05-2018, 09:08 AM
#2185
Originally Posted by winner69
.....and then buy back after they’ve overshot on the downside (when news is better)
Easier said than done, especially with a retailer.
Last time HLG "got it wrong" it took them years to come right.
ps.LOV au $10.50.
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08-05-2018, 09:48 AM
#2186
Run with the now not the past,we are sailing with favourably winds currently, so relax and enjoy the banquet.
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08-05-2018, 09:51 AM
#2187
Originally Posted by Hectorplains
Just for clarity, Roger. Are you espousing a long term hold? HLG is a solid company and recent performance has been excellent. If it's less than the bottom draw, where's your trade out point?
Fully imputed dividends (gross inclusive of imputation credits) for the last 5 years have been 43.75 cps, 41.7 cps, 43 cps, 39.6 cps, and 46.5 cps.
This year I am expecting 40 cps net which gives 55.6 cps gross. As I mentioned yesterday I am very happy with where management are taking this company.
I bought for long term dividend yield and see no reason whatsoever to alter amend my original investment thesis. HLG have been around for 144 years. I am more than happy to hold for the forseeable future.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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08-05-2018, 11:16 AM
#2188
Originally Posted by Beagle
Fully imputed dividends (gross inclusive of imputation credits) for the last 5 years have been 43.75 cps, 41.7 cps, 43 cps, 39.6 cps, and 46.5 cps.
This year I am expecting 40 cps net which gives 55.6 cps gross. As I mentioned yesterday I am very happy with where management are taking this company.
I bought for long term dividend yield and see no reason whatsoever to alter amend my original investment thesis. HLG have been around for 144 years. I am more than happy to hold for the forseeable future.
Nice to come back to a quality thread discussion, thanks for everyones thoughts...
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08-05-2018, 11:29 AM
#2189
Originally Posted by Beagle
HLG have been around for 144 years. I am more than happy to hold for the forseeable future.
I wonder how many NZ businesses have been around for as long? Check out the latest (in 1912) sports suits from HB as advertised in the Evening Post:
https://paperspast.natlib.govt.nz/ne...t/1912/10/21/2
If you need some "life and vigour" also check out the ad for "Bile Beans for Bileousness" on the same page. Must find out where to get some.
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08-05-2018, 11:32 AM
#2190
It is interesting that HLG are trading on 9-9.5x earnings and a 12% gross yield right now. It's like the market still doesn't believe they can keep delivering so if they do deliver a FY result of around $29-30m then I'd expect they head towards $6.00 towards the end of the year...
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