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07-06-2018, 01:18 PM
#1251
Originally Posted by JayRiggs
Given ARV and MET are trading around 16 times current underlying earnings, I reckon OCA should be on a similar multiple and reach $1.35 very very soon!
Sounds logical enough
But in reality why should they all be on similar multiples?
At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.
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07-06-2018, 02:16 PM
#1252
On NPAT ...real profits I think respective PEs are -
SUM 7.4 using Dec 18 reported profits
MET 8.0 using 4traders forecast $163m to year ended June 18
OCA 11.2 using IPO profit forecast to May 18
RYM 15.4 using March 18 reported profits
ARV 8.4 using March 18 reported profits
Maybe the market doesn’t price this sector on underlying earnings after all.
More consistently around real profits ...with OCA and RYM most ‘expensive’ for.want of another word
Last edited by winner69; 07-06-2018 at 02:44 PM.
At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.
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07-06-2018, 02:34 PM
#1253
Ecclesiastes 11:2: Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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07-06-2018, 02:37 PM
#1254
Originally Posted by winner69
On NPAT ...real profits I think respective PEs are -
SUM 7.4 using Dec 18 reported profits
MET 8.0 using 4traders forecast $163m to year ended June 18
OCA 11.2 using IPO profit forecast to May 18
RYM 15.4 using March 18 reported profits
ARV 8.4 using March 18 reported profits
Maybe the market doesn’t price this sector on underlying earnings after all.
More consistently around real profits ...with OCA and RYM most ‘expensive’ for.want of another word
If these shares were priced based on reported profits inclusive of all property revaluations then SUM would be a lot higher than it is today as a PE of 7.4 for a company that's growing earnings at an average rate of 45% per annum for the last 6 years...those sort of numbers never go together...EVER ! Underlying earnings it is and the market slowly starting to do its SUM's on SUM. No worries, $9+ within a year.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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07-06-2018, 02:47 PM
#1255
Originally Posted by Beagle
I'm buying OCA left right and center so for what its worth I think there is some merit in Couta1's relativity theory ( although I very much doubt he will get knighted for it like Sir Isaac Newton with his theory of relativity)
Good on you ....and keep buying to get the price up more as I still hold .......and I want to make reasonable return before selling.
At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.
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07-06-2018, 02:56 PM
#1256
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07-06-2018, 03:14 PM
#1257
Originally Posted by winner69
That was back in early Jan
Couts and me reckon RYM:SUM:OCA shareprice ratio should be about 10:5:1
Was true back in January ....but not now for OCA
Been a bit slack in spite of all the good news
OCA should be $1.20 by know ...and Beagle thinks $1,12 in seven weeks time pretty good
Will it ever catch up ...or will it just prove that the Winner Couts Theorem is a load of **** by always being a laggard.
So...on that theory of 1 SUM = 5 OCA and with SUM at $7.50 OCA should be $1.50 !!!!
But I'm not greedy so lets go back 6 months and SUM were $5.25 and OCA were $0.97, extrapolate that 5.41 : 1 ratio out and we get $1.39 fair value for OCA.
Lets split the difference and say OCA should be $1.40 !
Last edited by Beagle; 07-06-2018 at 03:15 PM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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07-06-2018, 03:55 PM
#1258
I may just sell out at $10 per share until then I stay put
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07-06-2018, 04:09 PM
#1259
Ecclesiastes 11:2: Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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07-06-2018, 04:54 PM
#1260
Originally Posted by winner69
It was $1.05 at end of December 2017
In spite of all the good news and good guidance it’s only $1.03
Hardly 1 or 2 cents a month is it ....but suppose patience is a virtue ...a real virtue
I like optimism. 1 - 2 c movements are a real joy to see for me. I like it. I am far more real than optimistic too
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