Gartley/Butterfly patterns

[Xerof]

Can I suggest a separate thread to focus on these formations, as I personally would like to gain experience in trading them.

Maybe this thread can be considered an experimental/learning/'trade at own peril' type of thread.

To start with I had already identified a nice one on the daily euro (see EUR thread earlier today), after the event, and as a matter of fact had found another fine example of a bullish gartley on the USD.CHF daily chart as well.

Its a real nuisance that we can't post charts on the forex threads so I'll post my XABCD points as I see them and people will just have to set them up on their own charts to see the formations

X = 1.1750 way back in April
A = 1.3085
B = 1.2435 - close to fib 50
C = 1.2790 - fib 50 - nice!
D = 1.2240

The problem I had with this one was AB didn't quite equal CD - the difference was 100 pips.

Our resident expert might like to comment on whether that entirely invalidates the Gartley or is wiggle allowable?

Anyway, the price action since then has been all the way back to just over fib 61.8%, which is 'ideal' target, and I wonder if that is it for this formation, given the sell-off in Asia today.

What I'd like to know is:

should one be brave enough to trade Point C if wave B has a perfect set-up, or are these formations focussing simply on Point D entries?

Actually XA would be nice to get as well

I can see the apparent 'danger' that a Gartley might develop into a Butterfly at the expected point D, but would have thought that the length of AB, provided BC is a nice fib 50%, would leave one fairly confident of CD's length.

I have another one which might be developing in the AUD 60 min chart, and will post my ideas on that shortly

Xerof the white cabbage

[Xerof]

Right, this ones an 'emerging' bullish Gartley on the AUD.USD 60 minute chart

X = 7612, just a couple of days ago
A = 7722
B = 7652, fib 61.8% (nice)
C = MAY have just been seen at 7710 a matter of minutes ago

So, if this is to develop further, 7710 really should contain the last rally and we should see

D = circa 7640, for another move north to a minimum 61.8% or 7685

Just a small one to start with[][]

[Xerof]

or.....

AUD.USD - an alternative which appears more developed.... 360 min chart - Bearish Butterfly

X = .7770
A = .7613
B = .7723 fib 61.8
C = .7652 fib 61.8
D = target area for sell .7762

No replies please - if all this turns to custard I'm deleting the thread in embarrassment[:I][:I]

[arco]

Xerof

Charts can be posted here on ST using the following method

Download MW Snap free from

http://www.mirekw.com/winfreeware/mwsnap.html

Save the charts you 'snap' to a free Image Hosting site

either/or

http://imageshack.us/

http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/

arco

[Xerof]

Thanks for the advice Arco, Imageshack was the missing link I needed. I have Screenprint, and there's also a snap function on Esignal

Here's the Euro bearish butterfly I was talking about. As I said, nice in hindsight.....

Wondering now whether the downmove is over and we see a retrace to 50 or 61.8 fib levels, although reaction off 12270, close enough to the 12283 38.2% level has been fairly swift at the Asian open

rumors of a Rita downgrade ... oh really?....

Anyway I'm now all set to clog the thread with images.

Having said that I'm out of posting range for 2 weeks

See y'all in October

Xerof

I've taken the chart out to reduce the width of this thread

[Xerof]

God, its a big piccy. Any way of scaling it down to a reasonable size?

[arco]

Xerof

There should be facilities either in Screenprint or
Imageshack to re-size the images. Or you can reduce
the size of the chart window before you snap it.

I lost my 'Screenprint' Gold program when the computer
fried and it is unavailable now for free. Bah [V]- it
was the best snap taker IMO.

Have a nice trip...I presume your legs will be shorter
when you get back.

arco

[arco]

There was a nice Butterfly on the EUR.USD 15m today.

It started at midnight and completed D-1618 at 12noon for a fall of circa 73 pips in 2 hours and there could be a little more left.

Missed it myself as I was out and about. [V]
But I am up 30 on the GBP>JPY so thats something

arco

[Xerof]

Yes I did the platinum trial, but there was no free gold option after that, so I coughed up for screenprint.

C'mon Arco, don't be miserable it only one or two pips cost from all those profitable trades you've done

[arco]

Aye, theres a wee problem getting anything out of mi sporren.

McArco