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05-11-2018, 12:04 PM
#541
Today’s announcement with supplementary commentary meant to ‘clarify’ some confusion about what was in previous announcements
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...267/289820.pdf
If anything (to stupid punters like me) it seems even more obtuse than before ....maybe strategy to utterly confuse punters (sorry investors) akin as to how they confuse motorists with their pump pricing.
Red flag for me
No wonder share price still falling
Suppose you need to believe that F19 divie will be between 32 cents and 41 cents ...so expect a final divie between 19.5 cents and 28.5 cents ..yes?
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
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05-11-2018, 01:23 PM
#542
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05-11-2018, 01:37 PM
#543
Originally Posted by winner69
Today’s announcement with supplementary commentary meant to ‘clarify’ some confusion about what was in previous announcements
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...267/289820.pdf
If anything (to stupid punters like me) it seems even more obtuse than before ....maybe strategy to utterly confuse punters (sorry investors) akin as to how they confuse motorists with their pump pricing.
Red flag for me
No wonder share price still falling
Suppose you need to believe that F19 divie will be between 32 cents and 41 cents ...so expect a final divie between 19.5 cents and 28.5 cents ..yes?
think one can assume that divs wont be the same all the time now ( be like nz refining ... lumpy ) why because The policy is to pay out 90-100% of underlying free cash flow, calculated as net cash fromoperations less maintenance capex and debt repayments.
and all this is based on the oil price which we know is highly volatile and that will affect the figures of maintenance capex .
one step ahead of the herd
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05-11-2018, 04:04 PM
#544
Plenty of buying support around the $5.20 mark, I reckon the bottom is pretty much in.
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05-11-2018, 06:27 PM
#545
Sussed the ‘clarification’ announcement but whether it all eventuates will be another story
Might be wrong but to ensure a ‘reasonable’ dividend it appears as if they not going to reduce debt (leverage) as much as they have intended.
Going back through recent announcements they seem to have a habit of having to correct / clarify things on a regular basis .....not good for such a large company
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
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05-11-2018, 07:20 PM
#546
Originally Posted by winner69
In Z’s case it’s the manipulation of prices using these loyalty things that could get them into trouble
How often have they had a price rise followed a few days later by a x cents off the promo. All to clever for their own good
Originally Posted by winner69
Sussed the ‘clarification’ announcement but whether it all eventuates will be another story
Might be wrong but to ensure a ‘reasonable’ dividend it appears as if they not going to reduce debt (leverage) as much as they have intended.
Going back through recent announcements they seem to have a habit of having to correct / clarify things on a regular basis .....not good for such a large company
So...save a tired dog a long read, do you think the current price after another drop today is good value or have we got more to go to the downside ? A real quick and dirty look at the gross dividend yield (assuming divvies are at the half way point and fully imputed) suggests 9.75% gross. Not too bad but this industry has very slowly building headwinds over a long period of time, (kind of the opposite to the long term steadily building tailwinds the retirement villages enjoy eh mate). Plenty of people have been burned before chasing yield in industries with long term headwinds.
That said I suppose if you pull out all the one-offs and mess up's the normalized gross yield for FY20 could be quite a bit higher ?
Last edited by Beagle; 05-11-2018 at 07:22 PM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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05-11-2018, 07:48 PM
#547
Originally Posted by Beagle
So...save a tired dog a long read, do you think the current price after another drop today is good value or have we got more to go to the downside ? A real quick and dirty look at the gross dividend yield (assuming divvies are at the half way point and fully imputed) suggests 9.75% gross. Not too bad but this industry has very slowly building headwinds over a long period of time, (kind of the opposite to the long term steadily building tailwinds the retirement villages enjoy eh mate). Plenty of people have been burned before chasing yield in industries with long term headwinds.
That said I suppose if you pull out all the one-offs and mess up's the normalized gross yield for FY20 could be quite a bit higher ?
Looks good eh and tempting many who want decent divies
Wouldn't try to look at financials or even analyst forecasts ...just believe the company that they will somehow give you 32 to 41 cents over the year
But sometimes yields are 'high' for a reason
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
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05-11-2018, 11:40 PM
#548
Originally Posted by winner69
Looks good eh and tempting many who want decent divies
Wouldn't try to look at financials or even analyst forecasts ...just believe the company that they will somehow give you 32 to 41 cents over the year
But sometimes yields are 'high' for a reason
Looking at chart belatedly shows a descending triangle from 2016 high which broke at the $6:90 level indicating a further $2 fall - not quite occurred yet but close.
For clarity, nothing I say is advice....
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06-11-2018, 10:23 AM
#549
Was hoping Winner would give me the "good oil" (you see what I did there) but you're having a bob each way here me ol mate, bit like your bets on the Melbourne cup this afternoon eh. TA looks shocking. Possibly oversold as Couta1 suggests, (is there some relativity theory here Couta1 ? I ZEL = 2 Turners maybe ? (both pretty mangy looking mutts aren't they !)
FY19 and 9.75 % gross yield (mid point) is not enough to get me invested in a long term headwinds stock so I guess I have to take a really deep dive into the results presentation and form a view on FY20 earnings and sustainability thereof going forward and gross yield http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...101/289637.pdf...or much easier I could just let the average analyst numbers do the talking.
Pretty interesting yield based on average analyst forecast, using a reference price of $5.175 this morning, $5.30 less almost immediate return of 12.5 cps for imminent dividend = $5.175) for FY20 of 9.9% net (13.7% gross) and for FY21 11% net (15.3% gross)
https://www.marketscreener.com/Z-ENE...15/financials/
Been reading one or two articles lately about the pressure on battery manufactures to get the necessary resources for electric car batteries and how the rate of decline in the cost of manufacture has started to slow. Maybe mass production of electric vehicles with decent range at an affordable price is a bit further out than I previously thought...or is that forecast FY21 yield just drawing me in like a beagle to a juicy bowl of dog food ? Hmmmmm In for a small parcel this morning...the dividend hound in me can't resist those forecast yields !
A lot of one-off's impacted the first half. Probably oversold a bit but TA looks dreadful so caution is definitely warranted !
Last edited by Beagle; 06-11-2018 at 10:24 AM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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06-11-2018, 11:06 AM
#550
I'm a bit concerned that Z has gone from being a favourite of patriotic NZ'ers (buying from a NZ company) to outright dislike (and hence avoidance) for price gouging and that forecasts based on history may not eventuate. Sure, there is a lot of headroom within the current earnings for the continued dividend but if the sentiment goes completely against them this will only reduce and may affect payout ability. Quite a bit of debt I recall from an earlier analysis.
Waitomo is changing the model with self serve - petrol only sites - do you really need a coke and a pie from where you buy petrol if it saves you 12c a litre?
For clarity, nothing I say is advice....
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