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15-11-2018, 12:10 PM
#2011
Last edited by Leftfield; 15-11-2018 at 03:11 PM.
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15-11-2018, 03:40 PM
#2012
Last edited by RupertBear; 15-11-2018 at 03:45 PM.
Reason: Clarification
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15-11-2018, 05:35 PM
#2013
Originally Posted by RupertBear
Oh dear the unwise Bear still has a few but I did ditch most of them at $3.70 after reading peoples comments on here and doing my own research as well
Bring out the honey wine little bear as I also am still here and we are surrounded by some very large bears looking for our honey...... time will tell if we are wise or unwise
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15-11-2018, 09:30 PM
#2014
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15-11-2018, 09:31 PM
#2015
Originally Posted by winner69
Rhetorical question rough answer
Let’s say 170 June 17 was a solid base (consensus F19 revenue forecast ~$110m) and a high of 445
So currently just above 50% fib mark ....and heading to 310 which is the 50% mark.
Next step down is 61.8% retracement at 270 and and then we may as well go to 100% retracement which seems to tie in with what I reckon it’s worth on a net sales multiple ( and remember PPH are forecasting F19 revenues ~$100m which is what punters were expecting when share price was 170 last year
Jeez, Fibonacci things can be spooky.
Spooky Fibs yes for sure, we know that, a sentiment indicator? Surely it won't pull back that far, it would be a disaster. I voted in Dec 2017 for PPH in the comp, but I don't hold stocks that are out of favour and killing capital, like this one currently is. So not a holder at present.
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16-11-2018, 08:02 AM
#2016
Originally Posted by dreamcatcher
Bring out the honey wine little bear as I also am still here and we are surrounded by some very large bears looking for our honey...... time will tell if we are wise or unwise
Upcoming quarter (thanksgiving and Christmas) season is crucial for them where they need to show solid turnaround in numbers. I honestly hope they do.
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16-11-2018, 08:42 AM
#2017
Originally Posted by sb9
Upcoming quarter (thanksgiving and Christmas) season is crucial for them where they need to show solid turnaround in numbers. I honestly hope they do.
They have already signaled that ‘solid turnaround’ in numbers along with a huge margin expansion
Must already be built into the current price ...or price drifting down to what’s seen as more reasonable.
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
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16-11-2018, 02:48 PM
#2018
Junior Member
Hi everyone,
We released a podcast that discussed Pushpay (along with Catapult ASX:CAT and Dicker Data ASX: DDR) a couple of days ago.
If anyone gives it a listen I would be interested in your take on the thesis: https://soundcloud.com/twmpodcast/th...keys-episode-2 (also available on iTunes and other platforms https://itunes.apple.com/au/podcast/...t/id1441602956)
Best,
Matt
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16-11-2018, 03:55 PM
#2019
Originally Posted by mjoass
Hi Matt, welcome to the forum and great for owning up (instead of just providing a link about PPH ...).
Re the podcast - I did listen in for something like 5 min with full attention span and than another 10 minutes doing other things in the background. Obviously - I can't comment on the 30 minutes I didn't listen to. Am I right that the whole thing would take more than 45 minutes?
From a positive perspective: the three guys have quite pleasant and interesting sounding voices - well in tune with probably most radio programms (however - I only listen regularly to Radio NZ, everything else would be an accident) and they do discuss next to a lot of time consuming chit chat issues interesting and relevant for investors.
However - I was wondering, who your intended audience is. If it is experienced investors, than yes, I did hear some (two or three?) interesting points - but honestly - the gems are well hidden in a flood of irrelevant noise.
If you are adressing however people who use radio just as background noise, than yes, the noise is fine, but your audience would probaly prefer a bit more music and a bit less information about finance.
Personally I would prefer a much shorter podcast with much more relevant information per time unit. A good podcast can address everyting as long as it does not consume more than 15 minutes .. remember - time is money ...
Anyway - just my 2 cents. Other age groups, cultural backgrounds and genders might have a totally different view. Good luck with whatever your business model is ...
Ah yes - and do I think whether PPH is at an infliction point? I wouldn't have a clue. However - I do have a preconceived view on PPH based on previous fundamental analysis (I am sure there is some stuff in the earlier parts of this thread), and while the SP might in the short term do whatever SP's do ... long term are they IMHO not just risky (due to quality issues I see in board and management) but as well (even when ignoring these risks) still overvalued.
Last edited by BlackPeter; 16-11-2018 at 04:01 PM.
Reason: added last paragraph ...
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"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)
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17-11-2018, 04:26 PM
#2020
Junior Member
Haha, thank you for your thoughts Black Peter. We might need to make "the gems are well hidden in a flood of irrelevant noise" our new tagline. Podcasts aren't for everyone
For those that listen past the 5 minute mark we discuss Pushpay in a fair bit of detail after chatting about inflection points more broadly, and I'd be interested in any thoughts on the thesis.
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