KMD - Kathmandu

[Beagle]

I think there was a bit left ‘unsaid’ in this announcement

Late March announcement will be interesting ....hopefully things improve dramatically

I can't see how that's going to happen. For the latest 7 weeks sales to have had such a dramatic effect on the first 15 weeks (more than double the period) the very latest trading performance must be extremely disappointing. That suggests to me that there's some big discounts coming in terms of very heavy summer discounting promotion activity coming which could impact margin.

Balance reckons downgrades come in three's. So this one, (effectively a downgrade on an eps basis) another in late March when they announce the half year and another one before the annual result in due course. $2.00 is on the cards here I reckon, maybe even a bit lower.

[winner69]

Jeez

I can't see how that's going to happen. For the latest 7 weeks sales to have had such a dramatic effect on the first 15 weeks (more than double the period) the very latest trading performance must be extremely disappointing. That suggests to me that there's some big discounts coming in terms of very heavy summer discounting promotion activity coming which could impact margin.

Balance reckons downgrades come in three's. So this one, (effectively a downgrade on an eps basis) another in late March when they announce the half year and another one before the annual result in due course. $2.00 is on the cards here I reckon, maybe even a bit lower.

Jeez $2 or less, that’s pretty low

[Beagle]

Jeez

Jeez $2 or less, that’s pretty low

I think its plainly obvious we're in a bear market now, (look what's happened to Apple sales, see CNBC.com if you want even more evidence) and KMD will be at best a zero growth eps company for the foreseeable future. People are going to pull their head in with consumer discretionary purchases, (this is not a consumer staple) so the clear risk to flat eps this year is to the downside going forward, if we're not already heading down now.
Ben Graham's well respected valuation methodology was to apply a PE of 8.5 for a no growth company. If they can make 23 cps earnings this year 8.5 x 23 = $1.95.5
If others want to pay more, good luck to them.

The company dropped a really ugly and unexpected downgrade clanger on the market today so a 20-30% correction wouldn't surprise me in the slightest.

There's a massive difference between a strong growth company and a no growth company as you know mate which is why I dropped this thing like a boiling hot potato this morning. When you make an investment mistake for whatever reason, yours's or the company's, in my experience its better to admit it, take the loss on the chin and move on.