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04-01-2019, 04:02 PM
#681
Originally Posted by couta1
In a bearish time TA nearly always sucks but it's hard to pan for gold in a strong current, a drought is a better time to find those nuggets.
Bollinger bonds telling us anything?
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
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04-01-2019, 04:10 PM
#682
Originally Posted by winner69
Bollinger bonds telling us anything?
That's it's going below $5.20, looks like the drought is going to get worse.
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04-01-2019, 04:25 PM
#683
Originally Posted by couta1
That's it's going below $5.20, looks like the drought is going to get worse.
maybe no nuggets .....just other not so good stuff like turds
shareprice was in a downtrend before the shock earnings downgrade and the downtrend looks like it is going to continue .....nothing has changed to reverse the downtrend eh
long way down from nearly 8 bucks
Last edited by winner69; 04-01-2019 at 04:27 PM.
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
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04-01-2019, 04:45 PM
#684
I can't argue the fact that TA looks bad, no debate about that. The question is do we look at what started the bad downtrend, the shocking first half result caused by a number of one off factors and look through that to see the sustainable dividend yield going forward. Brokers forecasting an average of 51 cps fully imputed dividends for FY20 rising to 56 cps for FY21 (56 / 0.72) = 77.78 cps gross giving a gross yield of 14.5%. $5.19 gives a gross forecast yield of 15%.
Remember this is a consumer staple. When oil went to $147 a barrel in the latter part of last decade fuel volumes declined by a "whopping" 2 %. That gives you the picture of how incredibly inelastic demand is.
That said I do believe that like me a lot of people are now buying more fuel efficient cars but on the other side of the equation we still have considerable net migrants coming here each year most of whom buy cars so this probably balances itself out. Holding for yield and the natural hedge of the dividends more than supplying the Beagle clan's fuel requirements...kind of like free fuel.
Last edited by Beagle; 04-01-2019 at 04:48 PM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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04-01-2019, 05:07 PM
#685
a bullish gartley has formed but needs confirmation
Attachment 10231
I guess to make my post clearer I should attempt to define what confirmation might be.
It could be any bullish candle formation on this daily time frame, so maybe a spinning top , or a hammer and then a big greeny. Conservatively to rise and then fall back and find support at 5.50 would indicate a stronger longer bullish possibility. Of course all bets are off below 5.15 for this particular pattern.
Last edited by peat; 04-01-2019 at 05:15 PM.
For clarity, nothing I say is advice....
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04-01-2019, 06:02 PM
#686
Originally Posted by Beagle
Remember this is a consumer staple. When oil went to $147 a barrel in the latter part of last decade fuel volumes declined by a "whopping" 2 %. That gives you the picture of how incredibly inelastic demand is.
That said I do believe that like me a lot of people are now buying more fuel efficient cars but on the other side of the equation we still have considerable net migrants coming here each year most of whom buy cars so this probably balances itself out. Holding for yield and the natural hedge of the dividends more than supplying the Beagle clan's fuel requirements...kind of like free fuel.
I guess most of these people who will be buying more fuel efficient cars,especially the migrants, will be buying them from NZ biggest used vehicle seller?..lol.
Sorry I do not buy Z as I get 15cents a litre off from Challenge and NPD,and the Pak'nSave Sticky Club 30cents off was a Christmas bonus I really enjoyed.[even filled up the motor mower petrol can].
Last edited by percy; 04-01-2019 at 07:21 PM.
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04-01-2019, 07:13 PM
#687
Originally Posted by peat
a bullish gartley has formed but needs confirmation
Attachment 10231
I guess to make my post clearer I should attempt to define what confirmation might be.
It could be any bullish candle formation on this daily time frame, so maybe a spinning top , or a hammer and then a big greeny. Conservatively to rise and then fall back and find support at 5.50 would indicate a stronger longer bullish possibility. Of course all bets are off below 5.15 for this particular pattern.
Could be. Then again im seeing a zingy steerish herd gathering within 2 moons on a spring tide. Bullishly a thrusting horn could open up a teepee smoke hole with possible scalping or at least a number one. Naturally its black or white or red and odds are even or even off depending on exactly how much it costs to fill your next tank of fuel be it 91.95.98 or a tight ar@se piston 105 friction short shot.
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04-01-2019, 07:31 PM
#688
As long as an abandoned baby pattern doesnt form
Always feel sad and shed a tear when I see those
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
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04-01-2019, 11:26 PM
#689
Originally Posted by Joshuatree
Could be. Then again im seeing a zingy steerish herd gathering within 2 moons on a spring tide. Bullishly a thrusting horn could open up a teepee smoke hole with possible scalping or at least a number one. Naturally its black or white or red and odds are even or even off depending on exactly how much it costs to fill your next tank of fuel be it 91.95.98 or a tight ar@se piston 105 friction short shot.
There is no hocus pocus , the gartley is nothing more than a tool to identify a nascent change of momentum. We've had a large fall in ZEL its possible that 5.17 is the low. With the price moving back up to 6.00 was that the first sign of a permanent turn? Since that $6 point we have seen two corrective patterns played out. neither of which has so far taken out the low.
Originally Posted by winner69
As long as an abandoned baby pattern doesnt form
Always feel sad and shed a tear when I see those
There is no chance of an abandoned baby right now as we have a Labour govt and Jacinda is always thinking of the children.
For clarity, nothing I say is advice....
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04-01-2019, 11:33 PM
#690
Originally Posted by peat
There is no hocus pocus , the gartley is nothing more than a tool to identify a nascent change of momentum. We've had a large fall in ZEL its possible that 5.17 is the low. With the price moving back up to 6.00 was that the first sign of a permanent turn? Since that $6 point we have seen two corrective patterns played out. neither of which has so far taken out the low.
There is no chance of an abandoned baby right now as we have a Labour govt and Jacinda is always thinking of the children.
A case of , the more you know the less you know ehh
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