GXH - Green Cross Health (formerly PHB - Pharmacybrands)

[BlackPeter]

Wow - SP at $1.14 more than 60% down compared to its peak value of $2.90 in May 2016 - and basically a textbook downwards slope since then.

GXH.jpg

Average (backward) PE is now 11.3 - still not really cheap, particularly considering that we might move into PE contraction territory.

On the other hand - for the right competitor they might move into takeover territory. At what time are they cheap enough for a clued up overseas competitor to just buy the lot for a song and show the NZ healthcare system how efficient pharmacies could be operated?

Assuming they won't run NZ largest pharmacy chain (with some other health ad - ons) into the ground - where is the bottom PE? At 10? At 5? And will these margins continue to shrink given that any newcomer will be cheaper and better. Hard not to.

[winner69]

You going to have a punt then BlackPeter

[percy]

Wow - SP at $1.14 more than 60% down compared to its peak value of $2.90 in May 2016 - and basically a textbook downwards slope since then.

GXH.jpg

Average (backward) PE is now 11.3 - still not really cheap, particularly considering that we might move into PE contraction territory.

On the other hand - for the right competitor they might move into takeover territory. At what time are they cheap enough for a clued up overseas competitor to just buy the lot for a song and show the NZ healthcare system how efficient pharmacies could be operated?

Assuming they won't run NZ largest pharmacy chain (with some other health ad - ons) into the ground - where is the bottom PE? At 10? At 5? And will these margins continue to shrink given that any newcomer will be cheaper and better. Hard not to.

You need to research the largest shareholder.[controlling interest].
It is a joint venture between Andrew Bagnell and Peter Merton,who look to have premptive rights on each other's shareholding.
Then you have to research who Peter Merton holds for.Himself or Zuelig?
Then look at what company Zuelig holds 40% of.
If you find it is Ebos then you are on the right track.
At this point in time you would most probably be right to think EBO already controls GXH,as well as being their major supplier.
My guess if Andrew Bagnell ever wants out, then EBO will take it over.
Otherwise, should EBO decide there are more benefits for them to have, they will make a takeover bid for GXH.
Note Zuelig representitive and EBO director Peter Williams is a GXH director.

[BlackPeter]

You need to research the largest shareholder.[controlling interest].
It is a joint venture between Andrew Bagnell and Peter Merton,who look to have premptive rights on each other's shareholding.
Then you have to research who Peter Merton holds for.Himself or Zuelig?
Then look at what company Zuelig holds 40% of.
If you find it is Ebos then you are on the right track.
At this point in time you would most probably be right to think EBO already controls GXH,as well as being their major supplier.
My guess if Andrew Bagnell ever wants out, then EBO will take it over.
Otherwise, should EBO decide there are more benefits for them to have, they will make a takeover bid for GXH.
Note Zuelig representitive and EBO director Peter Williams is a GXH director.

Interesting - EBOS market cap is 20 times the size of GXH. A takeover certainly wouldn't be a problem for them, but than - FMA might intervene ...

Unfortunate situation for the remaining retail shareholders.

[winner69]

Interesting - EBOS market cap is 20 times the size of GXH. A takeover certainly wouldn't be a problem for them, but than - FMA might intervene ...

Unfortunate situation for the remaining retail shareholders.

Any takeover will probably be one of those dastardly Scheme of Arrangement things with the Independent Directors recommending the deal at some price perceived to be cheap as (a steal in other words)

You’ll hate that BP so best to avoid getting involved?

[forest]

You need to research the largest shareholder.[controlling interest].
It is a joint venture between Andrew Bagnell and Peter Merton,who look to have premptive rights on each other's shareholding.
Then you have to research who Peter Merton holds for.Himself or Zuelig?
Then look at what company Zuelig holds 40% of.
If you find it is Ebos then you are on the right track.
At this point in time you would most probably be right to think EBO already controls GXH,as well as being their major supplier.
My guess if Andrew Bagnell ever wants out, then EBO will take it over.
Otherwise, should EBO decide there are more benefits for them to have, they will make a takeover bid for GXH.
Note Zuelig representitive and EBO director Peter Williams is a GXH director.

Great info Percy, much appreciated.

[RupertBear]

You need to research the largest shareholder.[controlling interest].
It is a joint venture between Andrew Bagnell and Peter Merton,who look to have premptive rights on each other's shareholding.
Then you have to research who Peter Merton holds for.Himself or Zuelig?
Then look at what company Zuelig holds 40% of.
If you find it is Ebos then you are on the right track.
At this point in time you would most probably be right to think EBO already controls GXH,as well as being their major supplier.
My guess if Andrew Bagnell ever wants out, then EBO will take it over.
Otherwise, should EBO decide there are more benefits for them to have, they will make a takeover bid for GXH.
Note Zuelig representitive and EBO director Peter Williams is a GXH director.

Thanks for sharing Percy, great researching, really helpful info