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04-02-2019, 08:41 AM
#3011
Originally Posted by winner69
Just good raw material for them .....they find investor behaviour intriguing .....esp when many perceive the market to be wrong
Define "wrong" in this context. Market is always right re setting the price even if it is wrong, but it is not very good in pricing the underlying value of a stock.
If it would be, than share prices would not jump around like spring lambs ... value of an organisation rarely jumps around on a daily basis while the share prices does.
That's what I know. What I don't know is whether the market over or undervalues OCA at current, but I think it is more the latter.
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"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)
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04-02-2019, 08:53 AM
#3012
Originally Posted by hardt
201 pages of discussion on a stock less than a year old with high single digit projected growth
Where RYMAN (the bloody A1 in retirement) has 240 pages on here after 15years consistently booming in the industry and on the market.
the difference is the rampers missed the ryman boat and tried to make up for it on oca. so you ended up with 190 pages of ramping on oca and 10 odd pages of balance from bull lol .
anyway the retirement sector had a dreadful week last week performance wise. big things to watch this week are royal commission in australia report to be released tonight this will possibly have ramifications in nz. probably explains the sell off last week in the sector. anyway be back later this arvo lots of study to do earnings season starts in aus this week and nz next week so a busy mth for investors to come
one step ahead of the herd
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04-02-2019, 09:07 AM
#3013
Member
What is this article about? Can someone explain it since I am not a paid-subscriber. Ta.
https://www.nbr.co.nz/analysis/tax-r...nia-healthcare
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04-02-2019, 09:26 AM
#3014
Originally Posted by tuaman
in essence they are talking about what we talking about last week in relation to tax on occupation rights.
heres some
Even with a binding ruling from IRD, Oceania’s accounts still note: “The interpretation of New Zealand tax laws in relation to DMF involves significant judgements and uncertainty.”
To make everything a bit murkier, the IRD won’t release its ruling publicly or even confirm its existence, no matter that Oceania refers to it in its accounts. Riddle me this
https://www.nbr.co.nz/analysis/tax-riddle-oceania-healthcare
Last edited by bull....; 04-02-2019 at 09:28 AM.
one step ahead of the herd
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04-02-2019, 09:53 AM
#3015
Actually - just pulled for fun relevant 2 year trendcharts:
OCA (blue) vs RYM (red)
Attachment 10293
and
OCA (blue) vs SUM (red)
Attachment 10294
What I can read out of them is that the market sees all three of them quite highly correlated ... though its appreciation of OCA did in comparison slightly rise in the 18 months since they started. OCA finishes 5 to 10 % better than RYM or SUM. As well - the OCA dividend yield paid out in 2018 is better than the RYM or SUM dividend yield.
So - if we assume that the market is always right, than it is clearly nonsense to put some of them down and ramp the other(s) up. All the same with a bit higher yield for a bit higher risk.
qed
Last edited by BlackPeter; 04-02-2019 at 10:15 AM.
Reason: format
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"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)
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04-02-2019, 10:01 AM
#3016
Originally Posted by BlackPeter
Define "wrong" in this context. Market is always right re setting the price even if it is wrong, but it is not very good in pricing the underlying value of a stock.
If it would be, than share prices would not jump around like spring lambs ... value of an organisation rarely jumps around on a daily basis while the share prices does.
That's what I know. What I don't know is whether the market over or undervalues OCA at current, but I think it is more the latter.
So the markets probably wrong today
But what do I know ....even though I know that I am intelligent, because I know that I know nothing
Last edited by winner69; 04-02-2019 at 10:35 AM.
”When investors are euphoric, they are incapable of recognising euphoria itself “
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04-02-2019, 10:14 AM
#3017
Originally Posted by winner69
So the markets probably wrong oday
How do you measure that?
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"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)
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04-02-2019, 10:35 AM
#3018
Originally Posted by BlackPeter
Actually - just pulled for fun relevant 2 year trendcharts:
OCA (blue) vs RYM (red)
Attachment 10293
and
OCA (blue) vs SUM (red)
Attachment 10294
What I can read out of them is that the market sees all three of them quite highly correlated ... though its appreciation of OCA did in comparison slightly rise in the 18 months since they started. OCA finishes 5 to 10 % better than RYM or SUM. As well - the OCA dividend yield paid out in 2018 is better than the RYM or SUM dividend yield.
So - if we assume that the market is always right, than it is clearly nonsense to put some of them down and ramp the other(s) up. All the same with a bit higher yield for a bit higher risk.
qed
But you forgot the all important ARV in your analysis who have woefully underperformed all the above in the last 2 years.
OCA have done the best since they listed though. Some would opine that's simply because they listed too cheap and some other dog is best of all but that's like creative accounting and a load of nonsense and a bit like saying if XYZ was ABC then DCE would be QED. All the proof that a dog is exactly that no matter what angle you look at it.
Woof woof.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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04-02-2019, 10:38 AM
#3019
Originally Posted by BlackPeter
How do you measure that?
....because you said 'What I don't know is whether the market over or undervalues OCA at current, but I think it is more the latter.'
Suppose I do imply undervalues means wrong
”When investors are euphoric, they are incapable of recognising euphoria itself “
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04-02-2019, 10:43 AM
#3020
Originally Posted by Beagle
But you forgot the all important ARV in your analysis who have woefully underperformed all the above in the last 2 years.
OCA have done the best since they listed though. Some would opine that's simply because they listed too cheap and some other dog is best of all but that's like creative accounting and a load of nonsense and a bit like saying if XYZ was ABC then DCE would be QED. All the proof that a dog is exactly that no matter what angle you look at it.
Woof woof.
being creative is comparing selected time periods... ARV has done much better than OCA in the past 6 months, but we'll just ignore that and look at the magical 2 year mark... really does depend on the angle you look at it afterall!
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