ETF's NZX or ASX?

[SBQ]

Muffin; im curious about your timing here, are you really feeling bullish about global markets?

If you're investing for the long term - ie 10 years +, then timing isn't so much of an issue. In fact before Trump was voted in, countless of so called experts claimed there will be a stock market crash. At that time the DOW was around 17K. Now we're at 25K. How do you explain this gain in the past 2+ years if you listened to the bears and sat on the side lines?

If I was Muffin and was playing with small $ (well under the $50K threshold of FIF), I would look none other than US equities. There's a lot at stake with the upcoming capital gains tax in NZ which could trigger capital outflows and a weaker NZD to the USD exchange rate. The NZ equity market (in ETF form or not) are not mutually exclusive to the global investing market.

[Snow Leopard]

[QUOTE=SBQ;746683]....countless of so called experts claimed there will be a stock market crash. At that time the DOW was around 17K. Now we're at 25K. How do you explain this gain in the past 2+ years if you listened to the bears and sat on the side lines?

...There's a lot at stake with the upcoming capital gains tax in NZ which could trigger capital outflows and a weaker NZD to the USD exchange rate.../QUOTE]

Seems to be a bit of a contradiction between those two paragraphs!

[SBQ]

Seems to be a bit of a contradiction between those two paragraphs!

Clarify from what angle? Both cases are mutually exclusive as they're different markets. An example, the 2008 GFC had a major impact on the US market while having minimal effect on the NZ's real estate market.

Investment in NZ is concentrated in real estate (because of the lack of capital gain tax or simply, those that hold long enough can sell without paying any tax on the gain). You simply can't do that in the US as everything has capital gains tax regardless how long you hold it.

If you read carefully, i'm not making any predictions. When the NZD went weak this past year, who questioned it? No one mentioned the billions of $ that left NZ over the foreign trust crack down by IRD (perhaps it wasn't newsworthy or news-friendly).