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07-03-2019, 04:41 PM
#3211
1.04 last defence looking at the depth , if it busts i guess it is a reflection of the margins being under pressure sector wide i believe
one step ahead of the herd
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07-03-2019, 05:13 PM
#3212
Yep Mr Bull.
Originally Posted by bull....
1.04 last defence looking at the depth , if it busts i guess it is a reflection of the margins being under pressure sector wide i believe
Yep Mr. Bull ---wonderful I agree---I have invested my dividend at 1.05 today --How beautiful. The Gross Dividend Yield is rocketing up towards 4.5% (More if OCA makes budget). I cant match it in the best bank I can find. What a share!
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07-03-2019, 08:03 PM
#3213
Originally Posted by Maverick
I would like to revise that 75 million profit down a lot Winner. I've had the time and got plenty of motivation to really dig through the last report. (By no means a small excersize)
I'm picking a fy profit of 64.5 million. .......
You're are worry Maverick
Profit downgrade from $75m to $64.5m
Downgrades usually come in threes many say
Don't be too pessismistic with your next downgrade or two....bearing in mind F18 underlying earnings were $52m
I see your reported profit figure of $50m to $65m is a lot less than F18 .....hmm
Maybe the pros have done the sums as well and thats why the share price is languishing
Last edited by winner69; 07-03-2019 at 08:08 PM.
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
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08-03-2019, 09:54 AM
#3214
Originally Posted by bull....
1.04 last defence looking at the depth , if it busts i guess it is a reflection of the margins being under pressure sector wide i believe
noticed yesterday that all the large blocking sell orders disappeared, any ideas why this happens....noticed it on a lot of shares
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08-03-2019, 10:00 AM
#3215
Originally Posted by ziggy415
noticed yesterday that all the large blocking sell orders disappeared, any ideas why this happens....noticed it on a lot of shares
obviously someone is selling a large holding at the moment. instos dont want to scare people or other instos off by having millions on offer in the depth list so instos just feed them out gradually until there order is finished.
one step ahead of the herd
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08-03-2019, 12:01 PM
#3216
Someone is manipulating the market...sorry I cannot say any more. Its a little disappointing to see them down at $1.04 again. I think their business model is brilliant.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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09-03-2019, 02:57 PM
#3217
Originally Posted by Beagle
Someone is manipulating the market...sorry I cannot say any more. Its a little disappointing to see them down at $1.04 again. I think their business model is brilliant.
Manipulation is a fairly strong word. Just good management of a large position? In any case, we all know that the market price from day to day isn't relevant unless one is a buyer or a seller at that time.
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09-03-2019, 03:31 PM
#3218
I think that we will see Oceania stagnant for a while (approximately 6 months). Looking at what they are projected to pay for dividend, I can get better in other shares and ones that are also gaining in capital value (HGH). I don’t plan on selling what I have as I am still making capital gain on this share and I don’t trade, but I do rebalance. I do think this share is worth $1.15 at least, but I don’t control the market
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10-03-2019, 08:25 AM
#3219
Originally Posted by Ggcc
I think that we will see Oceania stagnant for a while (approximately 6 months). Looking at what they are projected to pay for dividend, I can get better in other shares and ones that are also gaining in capital value (HGH). I don’t plan on selling what I have as I am still making capital gain on this share and I don’t trade, but I do rebalance. I do think this share is worth $1.15 at least, but I don’t control the market
I reckon you have hit the nail on the head as to why the SP is currently substantially undervalued, basically stagnation and some large holders seeing better use for their money elsewhere and probably a disbelief that the SP is back at $1.04 after what was a discounted $1.10 at the time selldown by Maccas. I never thought we would see the price under $1.10 again 6 months ago but it just reinforces my mistrust of the market to get things right, I back myself and therefore continue to hold an XXXOS sized position. PS-My 12 month target price is $1.30 and $2.50 within 3 years.
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10-03-2019, 09:04 AM
#3220
I like those numbers Couta. I've done as much homework as this mere mortal can do on their reports. As stated above I come up with a FY19 underlying profit of 50-65 ( the large variance due to delivery dates of their new builds as to which FY They will be sold in)
At 60 million that's an EPS of ten, multiplied by a PE of 13.5 ( that's all this grumpy market will afford it currently- i believe it "should" rise to 17- 18 in years to come , given its probable,strong growth trajectory.)
then wallah...... a share price in SIX months of $0.10 x 13.5 = $1.35.
I do think your price of $2.60 in 3 yrs is reasonable but it's dependant on the market raising its PE rating. It surely must by then, especially with MAQ exited and some history building up.
Even if Mr Mkt still won't budge on the PE then the company will still deliver strong underlying growth so it might take five years to get there all by itself. ( but I seriously doubt it will take that long).
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