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13-04-2019, 07:02 PM
#3461
Originally Posted by stoploss
The risk is say you purchase at $ 1.00,
Macquarie then go and smash out 10% of the company at 90 cents ..,
So the risk is you purchase and maybe miss out on a bargain the next day .
Is that why there’s been persistent selling over the last few months ...the smart money positioning themselves for the inevitable bargain?
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
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13-04-2019, 08:54 PM
#3462
Originally Posted by stoploss
The risk is say you purchase at $ 1.00,
Macquarie then go and smash out 10% of the company at 90 cents ..,
So the risk is you purchase and maybe miss out on a bargain the next day .
It's incredibly unlikely that Maccas will sell any more shares until the price is well north of where it currently is.
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13-04-2019, 09:04 PM
#3463
Originally Posted by couta1
It's incredibly unlikely that Maccas will sell any more shares until the price is well north of where it currently is.
Maybe unlikely , but never say never . Markets change ... the Aussie property market tanking .... who knows maybe Macq could have some sort of exposure there and need to cash a few things up .....
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13-04-2019, 09:47 PM
#3464
Originally Posted by stoploss
Maybe unlikely , but never say never . Markets change ... the Aussie property market tanking .... who knows maybe Macq could have some sort of exposure there and need to cash a few things up .....
And they're well in profit, plenty of upside to sell into. So far there's no sign of that but we don't know their intentions hence the 'overhang'.
Nevertheless, the FA on this is compelling so I'm not too concerned and even at today's SP it is a long term earner.
If MacQ decided to seed the market with a good deal of shares (i.e. drop the SP doing so) I'd be happy to reap their profit and position even more than I already have for the longer term without them.
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14-04-2019, 09:01 AM
#3465
On Balance Volune was rising before the last Macquarie sell down. Since then the OBV has been falling ....ie persistent selling pressure.
If one reads things like Journal of Portfolio Management the general consensus is that a thing like ‘overhang’ has more emotional impacts than any real investing impacts. Investment managers buy and sell on fundamentals and ‘overhangs’ seldom influence those decisions.
With that persistent selling pressure since the last sell down msybevthe market is saying the fundamentals don’t stack up (against the hype)
Most of here no doubt think the market is really stupid.
Talking of being stupid I’m feeling rather stupid about buying OCA. Unlike the lucky ones in JT, BP, j_t and others i’m underwater with OCA ...it’s been a worse investment (if that’s what it’s calked) than my punt on Turners.
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
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14-04-2019, 09:20 AM
#3466
Originally Posted by winner69
On Balance Volune was rising before the last Macquarie sell down. Since then the OBV has been falling ....ie persistent selling pressure.
If one reads things like Journal of Portfolio Management the general consensus is that a thing like ‘overhang’ has more emotional impacts than any real investing impacts. Investment managers buy and sell on fundamentals and ‘overhangs’ seldom influence those decisions.
With that persistent selling pressure since the last sell down msybevthe market is saying the fundamentals don’t stack up (against the hype)
Most of here no doubt think the market is really stupid.
Talking of being stupid I’m feeling rather stupid about buying OCA. Unlike the lucky ones in JT, BP, j_t and others i’m underwater with OCA ...it’s been a worse investment (if that’s what it’s calked) than my punt on Turners.
At the time IFT sold out of MET($5.61 cf market at the time $5.80)) my thoughts was they that they hadn't optimized their position.With the benefit of time and $4.69 now indicates how astute the decision was.Is this similar to how OCA is positioned now?
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14-04-2019, 11:24 AM
#3467
Originally Posted by couta1
It's incredibly unlikely that Maccas will sell any more shares until the price is well north of where it currently is.
I think its not wise to try and second guess them mate. Anyone's guess what they might do which is why I am sticking with a moderate holding and ignoring the "apparent bargain" at $1.00. Once we have some more runs on the board in terms of FY19's result and we know more about Macquarie's intention's I'll reassess and not before. They fooled me once at $1.10 in Sept 2018, once bitten, twice shy.
Last edited by Beagle; 14-04-2019 at 11:45 AM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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14-04-2019, 01:54 PM
#3468
Thanks all for your input/discussion on the McQ overhang. The consensus seems to be that it is 'evenly balanced'. Could go either way. My thinking is that there is more upside potential than downside.
OCA is supposedly the 'safest' div/yield stock in my portfolio yet it is the only stock in my portfolio currently in the red!
Guess I'm well positioned (as Percy would say) to double up (or down) when/if there is definite news to support any move as OCA is currently approx 5% of my portfolio and I would like to increase it to about 10%. Waiting patiently, but heartened by last weeks construction/build news.
GLH
Last edited by Leftfield; 14-04-2019 at 02:25 PM.
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14-04-2019, 03:22 PM
#3469
I am still of the firm belief that when this share takes off it will do it quickly. I am guessing our next price increase will take it to $1.20 again. I do feel that maybe the Macquarie group has the best deal at $1.10 for now, but if they sell the next load it will be cheaper, only if they decide to sell quick. Or if they sell in a years time they may get $1.20. Our Greg Thompson got on board at about $1 and I was told he sold his retirement village to Macquarie that created Oceania. Great little invester our Greg is. I am a happy investor slightly in the red but happy.
Last edited by Ggcc; 14-04-2019 at 03:23 PM.
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14-04-2019, 04:22 PM
#3470
Member
Originally Posted by Ggcc
I am still of the firm belief that when this share takes off it will do it quickly. I am guessing our next price increase will take it to $1.20 again. I do feel that maybe the Macquarie group has the best deal at $1.10 for now, but if they sell the next load it will be cheaper, only if they decide to sell quick. Or if they sell in a years time they may get $1.20. Our Greg Thompson got on board at about $1 and I was told he sold his retirement village to Macquarie that created Oceania. Great little invester our Greg is. I am a happy investor slightly in the red but happy.
Nice post. I put a lot of faith in the fact that 5 out of 7 directors have bought in at just over the dollar mark. Surely that screams confidence.
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