Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
Welcome to the forum and good to see some robust debate on this one. They may be on an upward journey but its from the very depth's of a deep dark well with no readily apparent ladder to use... Using another analogy...Turning the Titanic around before it hits the iceberg (assuming the rudders even work AKA is staff morale now so bad it's not a recoverable situation ?) will take time and as for asking long suffering shareholders who have seen their capital decimated by years of mismanagement for millions more...this is by no means a foregone conclusion at any price let alone 25 cents per share.

I think you are well and truly jumping the gun calling the share price as doubling in the next 14-15 months and resumption of dividends.

The fact that the bank has ostensibly removed the headroom from the company facility tells you they have lost confidence so I agree a capital raise is necessary but how and who is going to underwrite that ?

This stock should come with a 'HIGHLY SPECULATIVE WARNING" so I have titled this post accordingly.

If this stock is "investable" and that's still a big IF in my mind the time to do it would appear to be contemporaneously with the capital raise so at least its de-risked from the bank's perspective. Buying someone's else's right's to subscribe to new shares at say 20 cents per share for a fraction of a cent each might have some merit provided they can demonstrate the ship is actually starting to turn around. Average centre occupancy will be a key statistic to watch in my opinion and if they can't turn that around then...
While the price is much lower than IPO, the valuation metric (EV/EBITDA) used to sell the IPO is much the same. I can see a 1:1 rights issue at 17c as being realistic. Even then, they will still have plenty of debt.

IPO Now
Price $ 1.00 $ 0.24
MC 177 42
Debt 9.5 48
EV 186.5 90
EBITDA 25.7 13.4
EV/EBITDA 7.26 6.72