ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[couta1]

Are you sure you wouldn't have Couta, I vaguely remember you buying Xero for $46 a few years ago, you must have expected it to get close to $66

I bought it at various prices from $12 upward with highest price lot at $42.before it headed back down to $12.again, ended up doubling down to $22 before finally selling out at $25. I guess what I'm trying to say is I was being easily swayed by other people's opinions at the time without having a firm conviction and vision for the stock myself.

[Blue Skies]

You need vision to see the true value of where this stock could go to, I mean how many would have believed XRO would be trading at $66NZ a few years ago? I for one wouldn't have but I can with A2 and $15 will be a long lost memory a few yrs from now, A2 is the future of milk IMO or should I say back to the future.

Just purely from an investment point of view, my biggest worry about the future of A2 is does cows milk for human consumption have a big future ? The whole marketing concept is appealing to customers who perceive it is a less unhealthy option than regular milk, but it is still cows milk. Already plant based alternatives e.g. soy are being developed which are much healthier & far less damaging to the environment (e.g. takes 1000 L of water to produce 1 L of milk plus all the nitrogen run off etc). No other species drinks another species milk past weaning & cows milk has been associated with numerous chronic diseases in humans. Things are changing rapidly & I wonder in several years time if the market for A2 will have been replaced by an alternative & just seen as another overhyped miracle health product. Things that go up quickly have a tendency to fall just as fast, e.g. Comvita, Trilogy (rosehip oil ).

[couta1]

Just purely from an investment point of view, my biggest worry about the future of A2 is does cows milk for human consumption have a big future ? The whole marketing concept is appealing to customers who perceive it is a less unhealthy option than regular milk, but it is still cows milk. Already plant based alternatives e.g. soy are being developed which are much healthier & far less damaging to the environment (e.g. takes 1000 L of water to produce 1 L of milk plus all the nitrogen run off etc). No other species drinks another species milk past weaning & cows milk has been associated with numerous chronic diseases in humans. Things are changing rapidly & I wonder in several years time if the market for A2 will have been replaced by an alternative & just seen as another overhyped miracle health product. Things that go up quickly have a tendency to fall just as fast, e.g. Comvita, Trilogy (rosehip oil ).

A bit like asking the question, when will we stop using fossil fuels completely, how long is a piece of string?

[freddagg]

I bought it at various prices from $12 upward with highest price lot at $42.before it headed back down to $12.again, ended up doubling down to $22 before finally selling out at $25. I guess what I'm trying to say is I was being easily swayed by other people's opinions at the time without having a firm conviction and vision for the stock myself.

I was just being a dick.

I agree that there is still enormous potential in A2 and I am optimistic that the share price will be close to $20 within 12 months

[RGR367]

Those who would not live or dream the dream for ATM are probably the same folks that missed it at lower than 80 cents like those XRO unbelievers before that missed that stock at less than a dollar. Sometimes a gut feel for a stock is way better than over analyzing it.

[NZSilver]

Just having a more detailed read of the report.

Major marketing spend will be currently going into US and China Mainland (M&B Stores)

US small revenue is probably getting disproportionate amount of marketing spend and is liquid milk sales. Very early days.

Still key focus is growing direct sales in Mainland China,

Here are rev numbers for CHINA AND ASIA and vs market spend overall (which majority will be mainland china as this is the push)
FY17 rev 88.9 mil (marketing exp 42 mil)
FY18 rev 233.6 mil (marketing exp 88.73 mil)
FY19 rev 405 Mil (HY19 171mil) (marketing exp 135 mil)

The revenue growth in China market for direct infant formula is very pleasing, and as sales grow marketing spend will grow but likely at a much slower rate. I believe this is a smart strategy going forward, as there will lower potential growth is Aus diogue market and more regulation from the Chinese government.

Crudely, on quick calculations increase $1 spent marketing (with some being other geographies) is growing the growth of revenue.

[bull....]

test the lows of the week today ?

[couta1]

test the lows of the week today ?

That would be a no, make that a yes. Lol

[see weed]

Down $2bil. in 3 days. I don't think there is another company on the NZX that could do that and recover in 1 to 3 weeks or months. Will this have an effect on the rest off the NZX and drag it down or slow it up for a while?

[Baa_Baa]

test the lows of the week today ?

Ready, with cash, if it happens. That said, the spike high Feb'18 oddly enough is the same as yesterday's close (also the .786 fib retrace) and the low yesterday bounced off the 200EMA. Drilling down to an intraday chart today to follow the action.