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30-10-2019, 11:35 AM
#3501
Originally Posted by BlackPeter
Sure - though NZX50 contain as well a number of "growth" companies with growth (often well) beyond 10 %. I am talking about companies like RYM, SUM, ATM, MFT, FPH - to name just a few. They certainly would deserve a higher PE, wouldn't they?
The other thing is - many NZX 50 companies (like AIA, Gentailers, port companies) are traded as "quasi-bonds" - they naturally will have a higher PE. Do you see HLG in the same class? If yes, then $15 can't be far away (which would be a PE of 30).
Who knows ... markets are going mysterious ways ...
Many people thought I was completely nuts buying this at $2.70 just over 3 years ago. Could it possibly double again over the next few years, who knows but what's clear is there's a massive opportunity for Glassons in Australia.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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31-10-2019, 08:10 AM
#3502
Hallensteins / Glassons doing the right things
Provide experiences, be relevant etc etc etc
Brick-and-Mortar Stores Are Making a Comeback
https://hbswk.hbs.edu/item/brick-and...r%2030,%202019
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
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31-10-2019, 10:14 AM
#3503
Originally Posted by Snow Leopard
Finally through that $6 resistance.
Somebody will come out with 'resistance once broken often becomes support'.
To infinity and beyond
'resistance once broken often becomes support'.
To infinity and beyond There you go, I agree
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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31-10-2019, 10:52 AM
#3504
Originally Posted by BlackPeter
Sure - though NZX50 contain as well a number of "growth" companies with growth (often well) beyond 10 %. I am talking about companies like RYM, SUM, ATM, MFT, FPH - to name just a few. They certainly would deserve a higher PE, wouldn't they?
The other thing is - many NZX 50 companies (like AIA, Gentailers, port companies) are traded as "quasi-bonds" - they naturally will have a higher PE. Do you see HLG in the same class? If yes, then $15 can't be far away (which would be a PE of 30).
Who knows ... markets are going mysterious ways ...
Somebody on here says divies have averaged over 30 cents for years through thick and thin.
Bigger company now BP so probably 40 cents new average
On that basis good case to ‘price’ as a bond ...consistent annual return of 40 cents say $8 good risk adjusted deal . Not quite your $15 but still pretty good
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
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31-10-2019, 11:07 AM
#3505
Was Coutts and average over 16 years from memory was 31.5 cps fully imputed. Even paid dividends during the GFC so there is clearly good resiliency built into their business model. Agree that there has been substantial growth in recent years and 41.5 cps is the new 31.5 cps if you know what I mean.
But I think 44 cps is sustainable and that's 44 / 0.72 = 61.11 cps gross so the shares are on over a 10% gross yield and trade cum a 24 cps final divvy.
$6 is indeed the strong new support line. No logical reason for it to go under that again. Onward and upward and anyone who thinks this is a pure cyclical simply doesn't understand Glassons growth in Australia, simple as that. Heck even Hallensteins brand in Australia is looking at expansion now Talk about opportunity for growth !!
Last edited by Beagle; 31-10-2019 at 11:09 AM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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31-10-2019, 06:36 PM
#3506
Share price still going up...and up
Must be starting to be priced as a good solid ‘bond’
Tiwai Pt shouldn’t affect HLG
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
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01-11-2019, 09:43 AM
#3507
Originally Posted by winner69
Share price still going up...and up
Must be starting to be priced as a good solid ‘bond’
Tiwai Pt shouldn’t affect HLG
Who knows ... just imagine the unthinkable happens, Tiwai point closes and all the poor Southland workers (if unemployed) can't afford anymore to buy all these smart Hallenstein Brothers suits ; Might make a dent into the online sales ... or do they have a shop in Invercargill?
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"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)
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01-11-2019, 10:09 AM
#3508
Originally Posted by BlackPeter
Who knows ... just imagine the unthinkable happens, Tiwai point closes and all the poor Southland workers (if unemployed) can't afford anymore to buy all these smart Hallenstein Brothers suits ; Might make a dent into the online sales ... or do they have a shop in Invercargill?
Your a trier but no cigar. PS-These beauties keep going up and MEL keeps dropping but that's what happens to way overvalued shares aye.
Last edited by couta1; 01-11-2019 at 10:14 AM.
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01-11-2019, 11:23 AM
#3509
Jeez — share price $6.25
Still cheap aso. Fundamentals and outlook ....and even more so if they do get prices as a de facto ‘bond’
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
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01-11-2019, 11:26 AM
#3510
Originally Posted by Beagle
Many people thought I was completely nuts buying this at $2.70 just over 3 years ago. Could it possibly double again over the next few years, who knows but what's clear is there's a massive opportunity for Glassons in Australia.
You were completely nuts ...you didn’t buy enough
But maybe there was a risk that all these global brands were going to wipe them out.
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
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