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- TRA - Turners Automotive Group [previously TNR - Turners Limited]
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07-12-2019, 08:12 AM
#5981
Originally Posted by golden city
Here we go a breakout glad loading up at 2.45
Yes indeed
The inverse bell-curve pattern is playing out perfectly. Expect 4 bucks some time next year
Always good topping up around 216 odd when many threw in the towel and capitulated
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
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07-12-2019, 10:15 AM
#5982
Originally Posted by winner69
Yes indeed
The inverse bell-curve pattern is playing out perfectly. Expect 4 bucks some time next year
Always good topping up around 216 odd when many threw in the towel and capitulated
They certainly made a lot of ugly noise, and made toxic posts here when they capitulated.
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07-12-2019, 10:35 AM
#5983
Originally Posted by percy
They certainly made a lot of ugly noise, and made toxic posts here when they capitulated.
We wil look back when the inverse bell-curve pattern has played out and the share price is over 4 bucks that Turners was a great example of where strategy, fundamentals and TA aligned to double your money.
Not quite halfway there so not too late to join the party
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
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07-12-2019, 11:24 AM
#5984
Originally Posted by winner69
We wil look back when the inverse bell-curve pattern has played out and the share price is over 4 bucks that Turners was a great example of where strategy, fundamentals and TA aligned to double your money.
Not quite halfway there so not too late to join the party
Given all the ramping people deserve to read a cautionary counter opinion seeing as this has been such an appalling performer over the years...
Let's not pretend this slight recovery is on fundmental's… a reality check for you
eps forecast 2020 24.4 cps, ( based on mid point of 2020 forecast and current number of shares on issue).
eps 2019 26.3 cps
eps 2018 29.3 cps
eps 2017 25.5 cps
eps 2016 25 cps
eps 2015 32 cps
On a fundamental basis its starting to look a little expensive now compared to Colonial Motors which has been a vastly better performer over the long run.
PE of about 11 is normal for Colonial and especially this no growth eps one...anything meaningfully more than that is probably irrational exuberance and writing yourself into a position of losing even more money on this.
I see fair value at slightly less than the current share price.
Last edited by Beagle; 07-12-2019 at 11:31 AM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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07-12-2019, 11:32 AM
#5985
Originally Posted by Beagle
On a fundamental basis its starting to look a little expensive now compared to Colonial Motors which has been a vastly better performer over the long run.
Agree CMO is starting to look a "has been"...............................
Great time to sell, and recycle your funds into TRA...................lol.
Last edited by percy; 07-12-2019 at 11:33 AM.
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07-12-2019, 11:36 AM
#5986
There’s a lot more to ‘fundamentals’ per se then financial performance
Strategy, fundamentals and TA all going for Turners at the moment.
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
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07-12-2019, 11:38 AM
#5987
Originally Posted by percy
Agree CMO is starting to look a "has been"...............................
Great time to sell, and recycle your funds into TRA...................lol.
CMOvTRA.jpg 3 year competitive chart, speaks for itself. A very long journey ahead for TRA just to get back to the share price it was 3 years ago.
TRAvNZX50.jpg See for yourself how this company which has been "promoted" on an extraordinarily regular basis over the years has performed over the last 3 years v the NZX50
I leave others to judge if the one who's "cried wolf" 101 times might be right this time... Keep in mind the official eps forecast of only 24.4 cps, (at mid point) for FY20 is the company's own official forecast of current trading conditions and second half profit is forecast to be lower than 1H FY20.
Take care this summer to avoid irrational excesses...
Last edited by Beagle; 07-12-2019 at 11:52 AM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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07-12-2019, 11:43 AM
#5988
Originally Posted by winner69
There’s a lot more to ‘fundamentals’ per se then financial performance
Strategy, fundamentals and TA all going for Turners at the moment.
Agreed.
"Well positioned."
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07-12-2019, 01:53 PM
#5989
Originally Posted by winner69
We wil look back when the inverse bell-curve pattern has played out and the share price is over 4 bucks that Turners was a great example of where strategy, fundamentals and TA aligned to double your money.
Not quite halfway there so not too late to join the party
I would like to point out that in less than a month inverse bell curves will be 'so last year'.
And remember you read it here first.
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09-12-2019, 03:02 PM
#5990
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