MET - Metlifecare - one for the fundies?

[Beagle]

Bird in the hand stuff for me, half are gone so far.

I am surprised you haven't sold the lot already lol

[Beagle]

Nearly 4 million changed hands today, about 10 times the average daily volume and interestingly nearly 2% of the total number of shares on issue.

Its going to be very interesting to see what happens here. My (usually very reliable), nose for a feed tells me to hang in there, there's a bigger feed coming.
Could easily take another glutinous feed off the table now, (which my low buy price), but I have no need for further eating after recent Christmas gluttony
Someone please strap a leash on me and take me for an extended walk

P.S. Nearly 4.5 million shares changed hands now, that's more than 2% of the company. Higher bid coming in January ?

Nearly 3 x by value of SUM shares have changed hands today compared to any of the other listed retirement companies, (MET excepted)
Wonder if SUM thing should be read into that or not...?

Hope the SUM board make a scrip offer of 1 SUM for 1 MET. Julian Cook and his excellent team could make a lot more of MET assets that the very average MET management team can that's for sure and then the assets would stay in N.Z. ownership too !

[macduffy]

P.S. Nearly 4.5 million shares changed hands now, that's more than 2% of the company. Higher bid coming in January ?

Perhaps. Or it could be the bidder shoring up its position. I'm with Couta on this - it could be one of those rare instances of the first offer being the last.

[winner69]

That 2% of the company sold today is in reality about 4% as a large portion of issued shares of is already spoken

Signal if a higher bid ...doubt it but if so lots of impatient mugs are going to be unhappy eh

No harm in hoping though ...hoping sometimes works

[Beagle]

That 2% of the company sold today is in reality about 4% as a large portion of issued shares of is already spoken

Signal if a higher bid ...doubt it but if so lots of impatient mugs are going to be unhappy eh

No harm in hoping though ...hoping sometimes works

SUM shares could easily be $10 as early as late January or even sooner and then a 1 SUM for 1 MET bid would look a lot better than $7 cash. MET board might have to come to their senses then.

[limmy]

Closed at $6.81 with nearly 4.6 million shares traded today. This is massive for a stock which normally does not have much turnover.

So who generally speaking are selling and who are buying ? I'm trying to understand what's going on here. Why are there so many sellers when the price is almost certanly going to be about 20c higher by April or so ? It's almost a given. ( risk free )

As for the ones who are buying, I'm guessing that these must be institutional buyers who have the cash :- Is a 20c increase within 4 months considered a good enough return for them ? Unless of course, they know something that we the mum and dad investors don't ? eg. another counter offer bid on the way ?

[Beagle]

Closed at $6.81 with nearly 4.6 million shares traded today. This is massive for a stock which normally does not have much turnover.

So who generally speaking are selling and who are buying ? I'm trying to understand what's going on here. Why are there so many sellers when the price is almost certanly going to be about 20c higher by April or so ? It's almost a given. ( risk free )

As for the ones who are buying, I'm guessing that these must be institutional buyers who have the cash :- Is a 20c increase within 4 months considered a good enough return for them ? Unless of course, they know something that we the mum and dad investors don't ? eg. another counter offer bid on the way ?

Already been pretty fully discussed today. 20 cents extra represents an annualised rate of return of approx. 7.2% per annum for the five complete months to the end of May. Scheme implementation could be early May so not possible to give an exact return as it might be just over 4 months and thus as much as 700 / 680 = 2.94% gain in 4 months = 8.82% per annum.

No scheme implementation agreement is certain so its not risk free, needs overseas investment office approval for one thing.

I believe the price is so close as the market quite correctly assesses there is a realistic chance of a higher competing bid. (We know there are two other interested parties) Obviously there will be differences of opinion on this point so some are happy to take the money and run as the annualised return given the execution risk isn't really especially compelling on its own, so there are many sellers and buyers, hence the very high volume.

As stated earlier I am fundamentally opposed to the bid on the basis that :-
1. Nothing is being paid for the intangible assets of the company.
2. Nothing is being paid for earnings from 1 June 2019 to May 2020.
3. Nothing is being paid for the increase in the value of all assets from 30 June 2019 to May 2020.

I think the acquirers offer is opportunistic and below fair value and am not selling unless legally compelled to do so under the takeover in due course. Others will take a quick buck and move on. I never bought this company to make a quick buck, I bought it as a deep value growth stock because of its compound average growth rate of 15% and I don't see the current bid as being fair and reasonable and I will be making my viewpoint known very forcefully at the forthcoming shareholders meeting to vote on this proposal.

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...608/314713.pdf

My hope is the valuation appraisal report really is independent and the expert appointed understands that MET's average underlying earnings per share growth rate over the last 5 years has actually exceeded the industry benchmark of Ryman. If that report has at the bottom of its range a figure higher than $7.00 then I would expect that the offer will need to be revised to at least the minimum of the valuation range so there is a chance a higher bid could be made to be forthcoming through this process. Whether such a report is truly independent is certainly debateable in my opinion. That or another party making a higher offer, either way $7.00 is the absolute minimum.

[winner69]

No breaking news overnight by the looks of it

Market resigned to getting the $7 it seems

Well 33% in 5 weeks (thanks to Couts Theorem) and another 15% in about 2 weeks is pretty cool,

Going to sell some ....but need to keep some as entrance fee to the Beagle Barking Show at the shareholders meeting

[Balance]

Closed at $6.81 with nearly 4.6 million shares traded today. This is massive for a stock which normally does not have much turnover.

So who generally speaking are selling and who are buying ? I'm trying to understand what's going on here. Why are there so many sellers when the price is almost certanly going to be about 20c higher by April or so ? It's almost a given. ( risk free )

As for the ones who are buying, I'm guessing that these must be institutional buyers who have the cash :- Is a 20c increase within 4 months considered a good enough return for them ? Unless of course, they know something that we the mum and dad investors don't ? eg. another counter offer bid on the way ?

Nothing unusual about high turnover after a bid is announced and accepted by directors - the same thing happened with Tegel, RBD and Trademe.

If institutional investors know something like a higher bid is in the offing, they will be paying close or above the bid price to secure as much stock as possible.

[Beagle]

Its very early days. I remain hopeful of a more reasonable competing offer in the near future.