sharetrader
  1. #12801
    percy
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    christchurch
    Posts
    17,221

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Baa_Baa View Post
    Something along the lines of relentless promotion no doubt. You forgot to mention when it was $2.14 … been a loooong recovery, sigh that still seems a long way away. That was a summer of great expectations dashed by sobering reality. Few posted their successful exit and long wait for re-entry, and while others fell silent, one lone voice carried the mantel waiting for redemption, still waiting.
    The relentless increase in fully imputated dividends has been something I have learnt to live with.
    Like a great number of Sharetraders who brought HGH at well under $1.00, I have never had cause to complain.

  2. #12802
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Location
    Auckland
    Posts
    21,362

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by percy View Post
    I knew you would love that post.
    Don't know what I am going to be saying when it does.?...lol.
    Somehow I don't think "I told you so" will cut the mustard lol
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  3. #12803
    Banned
    Join Date
    Dec 2015
    Location
    Maori land
    Posts
    1,776

    Default

    What I like about HGH is the dividend never disappointing me. Always increases...n DRP is fabulous...just like term deposit with compounding interest...but better...

  4. #12804
    Advanced Member
    Join Date
    Sep 2004
    Location
    , , .
    Posts
    1,894

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by percy View Post
    I can not remember you ever getting anything right with Heartland.
    Just pages of drivel,and "Fail" tests.
    In hindsight totally lacking any foresight.
    Heartland have a history of doing what they said they would do,as far back as saying they would receive a banking licence.
    We live in a very perilous world which includes finance.
    Passing judgements with the benefit of hindsight can hurt the wrong people .
    I suspect Snoopy is too resilient to be hurt but I can understand if he was feeling frustrated.
    Banking,borrowing and lending can be very risky and I appreciate all thoughts.
    The diligence and time snoopy has put in is much appreciated by many.
    Snoopy has skin in the game and we should all listen and see value in what he has to say.
    An optimist will never agree with a reasoned pessimist but we should listen to both before making investment decisions

    I have a brother who was a senior manager at National Westminister Bank-doing really well-then they were taken over by Royal Bank Scotland .You may Know the story but he saw what was happening and his only way out was to sell his shares and negotiate good leaving package at the age of 55.With that secured he continued to do contract work in his specialised field(unrelated to RBS misdeeds) until things went to custard.Another brother also working for Nat West did not sell-and for many years we heard his regrets .

  5. #12805
    percy
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    christchurch
    Posts
    17,221

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Snoopy View Post
    Not a holder Winner69, but I am becoming very uneasy about Heartland. What do you think of this observation?

    I am presently visiting the Kapiti Coast and have read today's edition of the Dominion and the local rag the Kapiti Observer, both dated Wednesday 20th July.

    On page B7 of the Dominion is an ad for PGG Wrightson Finance, an organization which seems inevitably destined to become part of Heartland. They are advertising a 12 month secured term deposit offering 7.5% per annum. This is despite the small print in the ad that notes any such investment will become a deposit with Heartland that will consequently be unsecured in a couple of months time (no mention of that last clause in the ad of course).

    Then on p13 of the Kapiti Observer, a real 'heartland' publication (sic), Heartland are offering a 12 month term deposit rate of 6.25% per annum. This seems to be quite a big gap for what is ostensibly the same investment, even allowing for the fact the 'small print' shows that the PGG Wrightson Finance 7.5% rate is for investments of $100,000 plus.

    The headline on the Heartland ad states 'We invest in Wellington'. Immediately I am thinking, no you don't! You are primarily the old Southern Cross and CBS Canterbury Building Societies, investing in the heart of the South Island. Oh and you are also Marac investing in the manufacturing heart of Wellington (yeah right, let me know if you can't count any manufacturer's left in Wellington on one hand!)

    I can't help the impression that Heartland is really old rope painted and tarted up as a new frilly bow knot. The marketing budget is being spent to allow the paying of lower interest rates to depositors than a BBB- credit rated organization might otherwise offer. Pull the wrong string and the whole lot might unravel. I really, really hope that I am wrong.

    I would like to see Heartland succeed. I think NZ inc. needs it! But is a 'Salt of the Earth' name and a hyped marketing budget really the key to the path of success?

    SNOOPY

    discl: Hold PGW, who are in the process of divesting PGG Wrightson Finance.
    The drivel started on 20-07-2011.

  6. #12806
    Senior Member pierre's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2004
    Location
    Hawkes Bay, New Zealand
    Posts
    1,104

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by percy View Post
    The drivel started on 20-07-2011.
    Percy - why don't you just say what you really think? Lol.

  7. #12807
    On the doghouse
    Join Date
    Jun 2004
    Location
    , , New Zealand.
    Posts
    9,221

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by percy View Post
    The drivel started on 20-07-2011
    .
    Thanks for that 'blast from the past' Percy. A pretty good post from me in 2011 and It holds lessons for us today. The 'old rope tied up with a frilly bow knot' has held together. It has even managed to 'wrap up' Seniors Finance along the way. All good. Even the credit rating has gone up, by one half notch anyway.

    But I think the veneer coating that was painted on Heartland creating a bank is getting a little thin. A bank that has outsourced its personal banking functions is hardly a bank for people in my books. But by qualifying as a 'bank' in technical terms, even though they have given up their banking licence to Westpac, Heartland are able to get away with offering call investments at 1.6%. I doubt if many investors would invest with 'Marac' or the 'Canterbury Building Societies' directly on those terms. Call yourself a bank and many people don't read beyond the 'b'. But Heartland have three B's in a row, and think they can align themselves in the public mind with banks that start with 'AA'. Which obviously they do as people keep investing with Heartland at what I consider inadequate interest rates. It is a repeat of what happened nine years ago with Heartland offering significantly lower interest rates than the then PGW owned PGW Finance for the same risk,

    So what to do? What is bad for depositors is good for shareholders, so buy HGH shares! That is one point that I think Percy and I can agree on, even if we have different views on what price point to pay. For the record I see fair value for HGH at $1,63, as derived in my post 12556 for those you want to look it up.

    SNOOPY
    Watch out for the most persistent and dangerous version of Covid-19: B.S.24/7

  8. #12808
    Alley Cat Brain's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2013
    Location
    Hoagy’s Alley
    Posts
    1,055

    Default

    It is always good to read and consider alternative viewpoints. Thanks for your posts Snoopy. Greatly appreciated.

  9. #12809
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Location
    Auckland
    Posts
    21,362

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    Overdue for a peer group comparison. I think we all know the Australian banks are grappling with issues and don't need to regurgitate all of them.
    FY20 forwards PE's
    BEN 13.9 Comment a no growth bank with eps in FY17 and FY18 higher than either the forecast for FY20 or FY21 !
    BOQ 12.7 - Comment - same as above
    ANZ 12.2 Comment - Crikey do they have issues on both sides of the Tasman or what !...which probably explains their low PE
    NAB 13.4
    WBC 13.1
    CBA 16.2
    Australian sector average 13.6

    How does HGH compare. Has been growing eps steadily but somewhat frustratingly more slowly in recent years. Mid point of FY20 forecast is 78.5m which gives forcast eps of 13.59 cos and a forward FY20 PE of just 12.2.

    I think their generally better track record of eps growth, better capital ratio and better earnings prospects should accord them a PE at least the same as the sector average in Australia, 13.6 which could see a rerating to 13.6 x 13.59 = $1.85 in early 2020.

    Gross yield assuming 10.5 cos in fully imputed annual dividends for FY20 is 10.5 / 0.72 = 14.583 / 166 = 8.8%.

    I think eps growth in FY21 will be stronger than FY20. Disc 5.3% portfolio allocation.
    Posted on 12 November 2019 when the SP was $1.67. (Emphasis added).
    Now sits at 7.3% of my portfolio allocation after share price increase and buying some more at $1.85, (actions speak louder than words), this week.
    Last edited by Beagle; 04-01-2020 at 08:07 AM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  10. #12810
    Dilettante
    Join Date
    Mar 2010
    Location
    Down & out
    Posts
    5,407

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by fish View Post
    We live in a very perilous world which includes finance.
    Passing judgements with the benefit of hindsight can hurt the wrong people .
    I suspect Snoopy is too resilient to be hurt but I can understand if he was feeling frustrated.
    Banking,borrowing and lending can be very risky and I appreciate all thoughts.
    The diligence and time snoopy has put in is much appreciated by many.
    Snoopy has skin in the game and we should all listen and see value in what he has to say.
    An optimist will never agree with a reasoned pessimist but we should listen to both before making investment decisions

    I have a brother who was a senior manager at National Westminister Bank-doing really well-then they were taken over by Royal Bank Scotland .You may Know the story but he saw what was happening and his only way out was to sell his shares and negotiate good leaving package at the age of 55.With that secured he continued to do contract work in his specialised field(unrelated to RBS misdeeds) until things went to custard.Another brother also working for Nat West did not sell-and for many years we heard his regrets .
    For the record, I totally agree with this. I respect all the great work that Snoopy puts in on this site. He never shies from a debate and that's how it should be. We just do not see eye to eye on HGH and that's fine with me.

Tags for this Thread

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •